A mystery trader has placed nearly $500,000 on Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott winning another term, according to prediction market data cited by CNN.
Analysts say it is “the largest bet on a single candidate during the 2026 midterms so far.”
The trader bought $499,800 worth of shares Monday, predicting an Abbott victory, according to data from the prediction platform Kalshi analyzed by Betting Intelligence. If the MAGA governor wins, the wager would pay about $714,000 in total.
“This is the largest single-race bet we’ve seen for the midterms on the major platforms,” Dan Zimmermann, chief intelligence officer at Betting Intelligence, told CNN. “They’re going out on a limb. Yes, it’s likely. But it’s not a near-certain outcome.”
Abbott, a staunch Trump ally who has served as governor since 2015, faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in an unusually competitive race. The wager was placed at odds that gave Abbott a roughly 70% chance of winning a fourth term in the ruby red state.
Zimmerman told CNN that the Kalshi data indicated the transaction came from an institutional trader, likely a hedge fund or investment firm. But the trader’s identity is not publicly known.
More than 7.2 million had been traded on Kalshi’s Texas governor market as of Tuesday, CNN reported.
Someone bet almost $500,000 on Greg Abbott winning reelection, per @MarshallCohen. Analysts say it's the biggest bet on a single candidate in the midterms so far https://t.co/kjml2GpURL #TXGOV
— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 27, 2026