Here’s why the Republicans' evangelical vote is shrinking — and why that spells trouble for Trump

A new analysis of the 2018 midterms reveals Republicans did more poorly among Donald Trump's base than expected -- especially among evangelicals.

CNN reported that although evangelical voters both with and without college degrees still vote overwhelmingly for GOP candidates, the size of their voting bloc is shrinking.

An analysis CNN commissioned from Edison Research found that "evangelical Christians this year comprised fully 45 percent of all white voters without a college degree" and one-fourth of white voters with college degrees.

The distinction between college educated and non-college educated white evangelicals appears only to be demographic, and Edison's exit polls showed that both groups still vote overwhelmingly for GOP candidates.

That "collapse," the report noted, may have to do with their shrinking numbers.

Robert P. Jones, the CEO of the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute, told CNN that in surveys his group did, "evangelical Christians have declined from about 21% of the total population in 2008 to 15% this year."

This "asymmetrical" shrinking is due to younger and better-educated Christians leaving the faith -- leaving older and more conservative members in their wake.

Those religious expats are "likely to be more liberal on a whole range of cultural issues and less anti-immigrant," Jones said. "You start losing differences."

Trump appeals "directly" to the "cultural priorities and resentments" of working-class whites whether or not they're evangelical, the report noted -- but CNN's analysis suggests that in spite of those hurdles, Democrats can still gain on the slight advantage they took in 2018 during the 2020 elections.

Read the entire report via CNN.