History shows presidential debate victors often win the battle but lose the war

Donald Trump has to feel pretty good, as he bested — some might say obliterated — a stammering, low-energy President Joe Biden in their first debate of 2024. A CNN poll declared Trump the hands-down winner, 67 percent to 33 percent.

But are those who win that first debate more likely to take the election?

In short: no.

During the television era, history indicates that the winners of first general election presidential debates went on to win the election only five out of 13 times.

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So at a moment when some Democrats are questioning Biden’s fitness for the presidency, and wondering aloud whether Biden should exit the race altogether, this is a bit of bad news for Trump.

Let’s run the numbers:

In 2020, Biden won 60 percent to 28 percent for Trump in the first debate, according to CNN’s poll. Then Biden went on to win the election in November 2020.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was judged to have won the first debate, according to CNN’s poll that had her winning 62 percent to 27 percent for Trump. But she lost the 2016 election.

In 2012, Mitt Romney won the first debate easily. According to Gallup, the Republican and former Massachusetts governor prevailed 72 percent to 20 percent for President Barack Obama. But it was Obama, the Democrat, who easily won reelection in 2012.

In 2008, Obama took the first debate from Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, 51 percent to 38 percent in the first debate according to CNN. This served as a good launching point for Obama’s victory in the election later that year.

In 2004, Democratic Sen. John Kerry won the first debate against George W. Bush. Newsweek’s poll revealed that Kerry won 61 percent to 19 percent for Bush. But it was Bush who narrowly won the election.

In 2000, Gallup polling had Vice President Al Gore winning the first debate (48 percent to 41 percent), which may surprise people, as the media criticized Gore’s audible sighs. But Bush won the 2000 election.

In 1996, Democrat Bill Clinton outperformed Republican Sen. Bob Dole, in the first debate (51 percent to 31 percent) according to Gallup polling. And Clinton was reelected in 1996.

In 1992, Reform Party nominee Ross Perot won the first debate 47 percent to 30 percent for then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton and 16 percent for President George H. W. Bush, according to Gallup. But Perot finished third in the election, behind Clinton and Bush, and didn’t earn a single electoral vote despite winning about 19 percent of the popular vote.

In 1988, Democrat and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was judged the winner of the first debate in two polls, but lost the election, by a wide margin, to Bush.

In 1984, Democrat Walter Mondale handily defeated Republican President Ronald Reagan 54 percent to 36 percent in their first debate. Yet Reagan won 49 of 50 states during the general election — one of the most notable landslide victories in U.S. History.

In 1980, Reagan also won the only debate against Democratic President Jimmy Carter and independent John Anderson, according to surveys from Gallup. Reagan also won the election.

Data from Gallup surveys showed that President Gerald Ford drastically reduced Carter’s big lead in 1976 but lost the election, while John F. Kennedy overtook Richard Nixon in the polls after their first debate in 1960 and ultimately won the ultra-close contest, according to Gallup.

That means that in 13 elections, the first debate winners have won five of these contests (1960, 1980, 1996, 2008, 2020). In the other eight cases, the first debate winners went on to lose at the ballot box (1976, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016). That’s a 38 percent success rate for winners of the first debate.

No televised debates were conducted in 1964, 1968 or 1972.

Why do winners of the first presidential debate often come up short in the election?

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It could be because the first debate serves as a wake-up call for the first debate loser, as it did for Reagan in 1984, and Obama in 2012; each had to answer questions about their poor debate performance.

It could be that taking the first debate puts pressure on the winner to make a repeat performance.

Or, perhaps, the first debate winner could become overconfident in his or her chances of winning the election.

Whatever the case may be, Trump may find that history is not on his side just because he dominated Biden in the first debate.

A second debate between Trump and Biden is scheduled for Sept. 10.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu. His “X” account is JohnTures2.