This red state race will tell us if a blue wave is coming

Backing for Republican favorite Matt Van Epps and Democratic nominee Rep. Aftyn Behn is kicking into high gear in the special election for Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District seat, as the Cook Political Report sees a shift in the political landscape.

The independent, nonpartisan group moved the district to “lean Republican” from “solid Republican” this week, mainly because of an 75 percent decrease in GOP turnout. Democrats, in contrast, are motivated to cast ballots in early voting, according to the report.

Van Epps is trying to counter by holding a tele-town hall Thursday with President Donald Trump, whose endorsement pushed him to victory in the Republican primary.

As voters started heading to the polls this week, a Florida-based political action committee called Engage, Y’all also spent more than $64,000 supporting Behn with Facebook posts, one about the importance of the race in changing the politics in Washington, D.C., where Republicans control Congress and the White House.

In another post, the group accused Van Epps of supporting a law that increases health insurance and grocery costs while endangering nursing homes and causing more than 200,000 people to lose their health insurance.

The Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Votes Action PAC spent nearly $12,500 canvassing for Behn and putting out literature.

Van Epps, in contrast, has gotten only one independent expenditure in his favor, $31,000 from Special Operations for America, since he won the Republican primary in early October.

It could be that outside groups aren’t overly concerned yet about Van Epps, former General Services commissioner for Gov. Bill Lee, losing to Behn in a gerrymandered red district.

Yet former U.S. Rep. Mark Green, whose seat they are vying to fill, complained about the rejiggered 7th District because even though it stretches from the Alabama line to Clarksville, it takes in western Davidson County — a reliably blue area — which could come back to haunt Republicans.

Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot, last week released his first ad of the general election campaign, saying he didn’t risk his life for America “just to watch career politicians wreck it.” In the new spot, he said his next “mission” is to lower prices, reduce health-care costs and bring in jobs.

It’s a far cry from the negative ad he directed at Behn when she bragged about going after ICE agents during a sweep for immigrants in South Nashville this year.

After casting an early vote Wednesday morning in Nashville, Van Epps spoke briefly to reporters, telling them he supports House Speaker Mike Johnson’s approach on handling the Epstein files, more or less slow-walking them through Congress.

Behn also unveiled her first campaign ad last week with a man riding a mechanical bull in slow motion and saying Washington’s system is “rigged” to help the rich with tax breaks and to bury the Epstein files. As the bull speeds up, she says regular folks get a “rough ride” because of tariffs and rising health insurance costs.

The East Nashville political organizer was supposed to have a big shindig last week with firebrand U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas. Crockett canceled at the last minute due to what her office called scheduling issues, but Behn carried on with state Sen. Charlane Oliver and Crockett dialing in.

Behn is enjoying a bit of a bounce caused by Democrats’ election wins in Virginia, New York and New Jersey a week ago. Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin canvassed with her last weekend.

The question is whether those can translate to Tennessee, where Van Epps has a built-in advantage. He got the endorsement of Tennessee Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson, who put out a Facebook call for support.

It remains to be seen whether he will need independent expenditures from the School Freedom Fund, which backed him in the primary with more than $62,600 as he handily defeated a cast of Republicans.

One interesting note is that U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who refused to mention her last opponent, state Rep. Gloria Johnson of Knoxville, is blasting Behn constantly. Blackburn said in posts on X, formerly Twitter, that Behn and New York mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist and Muslim, are “cut from the same cloth” and want to return to Soviet-era policies. She also called Behn the “AOC of Tennessee,” saying she was dressing up on Halloween as U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat constantly targeted by Republicans for liberal stances.

Typically, it’s bad form to mention an opponent’s name because it lends credibility to their candidacy. In Tennessee, it would typically take a lot of mentions, but some folks are starting to sweat.

• Sam Stockard is a veteran Tennessee reporter and editor, having written for the Daily News Journal in Murfreesboro, where he served as lead editor when the paper won an award for being the state's best Sunday newspaper two years in a row. He has led the Capitol Hill bureau for The Daily Memphian. His awards include Best Single Editorial and Best Single Feature from the Tennessee Press Association.