'This can't be right': Data guru floored as new polling spells trouble for Texas GOP

Texas has become one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country, with Democrat James Talarico challenging Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that CNN's Harry Enten says looks fundamentally different from Democrats' last near-miss in the state.

According to Enten, the current polling represents the strongest position for a Texas Democratic Senate candidate since at least the late 1980s, when Lloyd Bentsen last won the seat in 1988. Talarico currently leads Paxton by three points in the latest survey — a sharp contrast to 2018, when Beto O'Rourke trailed Ted Cruz by six points at a similar point in that cycle. That gap represents roughly a nine-point improvement for Democrats compared to the O'Rourke-Cruz race, which Cruz ultimately won by fewer than three points.

"Independents – the name of the game shifting significantly to the left hand and supercharging James Talarico," Enten said. "It could be real, every single time I look at the polling going, 'this can't be right.' This could be very, very real. Democrats have a real shot in Texas."

Enten pointed to movement among independents from an even split in 2018 to a 39-point advantage for Talarico three months out from the election.

Candidate popularity is also playing a role. Enten noted that Cruz entered the summer of 2018 with a favorability rating eight points above water, while Paxton currently sits six points underwater overall — and a striking 47 points underwater among independents specifically.

President Donald Trump carried the state by double digits in the last presidential election, but Enten said the president is now nine points underwater there, a notable decline from his standing in 2018 and part of a broader pattern of the 80-year-old president dragging down Republican prospects in traditionally red states.

With additional competitive races emerging in states like Iowa, Ohio and Alaska, prediction markets have moved from favoring Republicans roughly three-to-two a month ago to giving the GOP just a 53 percent chance of holding the Senate today — a signal, Enten said, that Democrats now have a genuine path back to a majority.

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