A conservative columnist predicted Republicans' expected midterm losses will fall hardest on Vice President JD Vance because of his closeness to President Donald Trump.
Timothy P. Carney, a columnist for The Washington Examiner and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, made the prediction in an episode of The New York Times' "The Opinions" podcast released on Saturday, appearing alongside hosts Robert Siegel and E.J. Dionne Jr.
"I think the shellacking that all three of us expect Republicans to take, I think that's got to hurt JD Vance, because I think it has to highlight how closeness to Trump is a negative," Carney said.
Siegel pushed back, pointing to what he jokingly called stories by "the hostile evil press" that seemed to put some distance between Vance and his boss' policies.
Carney wasn't convinced, arguing that Vance has no room to break with the president.
"I think Vance just simply cannot criticize Trump because...Trump doesn't have a deep loyalty to anybody," Carney said. "And that he will get thoroughly stabbed, JD will, if he criticizes Donald."
He contrasted Vance with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who Carney said could run while keeping quiet about Trump despite serving in his administration.
"There are conservatives who say that there needs to be somebody not attached to Trump, because of Trump's sort of drag on the party," Carney said. "I just think the only guy who's really going to suffer from this is going to be JD Vance."
Carney argued Trump has left the Republican field more open than ever, both politically and ideologically, after replacing the party's longstanding Ronald Reagan consensus with no coherent philosophy of his own.
"What conservatism came to fill that gap? Nothing coherent. It was a cult of personality," Carney said.
He predicted Vance would try to build an "ideologically coherent reindustrialization nationalism" around promises to rebuild manufacturing in states like Pennsylvania, but said he was skeptical it could work economically.
"Can he pull that off and make it coherent is one question," Carney said. "Will that be a political winner is another."