Shadow GOP presidential campaign revealed that launched within hours of Trump's win

The late right-wing activist Charlie Kirk began laying the groundwork for a JD Vance presidential campaign before Donald Trump had even finished celebrating his 2024 victory, according to people familiar with the effort.

Kirk, the Turning Point USA founder who was fatally shot last September while speaking at a Utah college campus, started sketching a strategy document with Tyler Bowyer, the group's chief operating officer, the day after Trump's win was called, those sources told the Washington Post.

The plan centered on a handful of "red wall" states Kirk believed could reshape the electoral map in Vance's favor – his home base in Arizona, neighboring Nevada and New Hampshire, a libertarian-leaning state no Republican presidential nominee has carried since 2000.

New Hampshire held particular strategic value, according to those familiar with Kirk's thinking, because of its status as an early presidential primary state where Turning Point's organizing muscle could give Vance an edge in a future GOP nominating contest.

The effort has since expanded into Iowa, another early nominating state. Turning Point launched a recruitment drive there last year, beginning at the Iowa State Fair, with the goal of establishing a presence in all 99 of the state's counties well ahead of the 2028 caucuses.

Kirk's involvement reflected a personal relationship with Vance that predated his rise to the vice presidency. Kirk endorsed Vance during his 2022 Senate primary in Ohio, when Vance was still trailing in polls, and later pushed Trump to select him as a running mate in 2024.

The two men remained close, and Turning Point leaders say they continue to speak with Vance regularly, and Erika Kirk, who took over as Turning Point's chief executive after her husband's death, formally endorsed Vance for 2028 during the organization's annual conference in December.

Vance has not said publicly whether he intends to run.

Bowyer said Turning Point still expects to hold a large rally in an early nominating state to mark an official Vance endorsement once he enters the race, an event he said would be organized "in Charlie's honor."

Turning Point officials describe the 42-year-old Vance as the closest available successor to Kirk's influence with young conservatives, calling him a "generational bridge" capable of engaging the youth audience Kirk spent over a decade building.

Some of Kirk's associates acknowledge, however, that no single figure can fully replace the draw the Turning Point leader held with younger voters, whose support for Trump and the GOP has slipped since the 2024 election, but his close allies concede that he probably couldn't have kept the 80-year-old president from slipping underwater with young voters.

“But maybe Trump would be one point better or two points better with young men,” said Blake Neff, producer of “The Charlie Kirk Show. “I think it’s very clear Charlie played a major role in that surge we had in 2024, but I think Charlie himself knew that, by its very nature, that was going to be tough to stick in a permanent way."