Sen. John Thune (R-SD) admitted to reporters that he is scrambling to prevent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) from retiring from her seat, Politico reported on Thursday.
“I’m doing everything I can to encourage her to run for reelection,” Thune said. “Ultimately that’s a decision she’d have to make. I think she’s moving forward.”
Ernst, who was first elected to the Senate in 2014 and has been regarded for years as a top GOP talent, signaled her intent to run for re-election last year, but in recent months those plans seem to have gotten murkier, with some strategists speculating she is overwhelmed and seeking a way out.
"Many will be watching closely for clues next week when Ernst files new campaign fundraising totals. She raised just over $1 million in the first quarter of 2025, a solid but not overwhelming number for an in-cycle senator," noted the report. "Asked about the senator’s 2026 plans, Ernst spokesperson Palmer Brigham declined to say definitively that she would run again: 'Senator Ernst is focused on her work delivering for Iowans in the Senate to make Washington ‘squeal,’ making President Trump’s historic tax cuts permanent through the One Big Beautiful Bill, and advancing a strong NDAA.'"
This already follows a number of other headaches for the Senate GOP, including Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announcing his exit from a seat widely expected to be competitive, following his refusal to back Trump's tax cut megabill, and the growing risk that Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) could be unseated in his primary by scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Democrats have not won a federal statewide race in Iowa since 2012; nonetheless, they could attempt a serious campaign there in 2026, given the small number of competitive Senate seats available.
Multiple Democrats have already launched campaigns for Iowa's Senate seat, noted the report, including state Rep. J.D. Scholten and state Sen. Zach Wahls. If Ernst does retire, it is widely expected that Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former news anchor with a strong war chest, could jump into the race on the Republican side to replace her.