Democrat Adam Hamilton won Kansas’ Senate race Tuesday, defeating Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, Decision Desk HQ and CNN projected. Hamilton led by nearly 9 points with 87% of the vote counted when DDHQ called the race.
Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, will be the first Democratic senator from Kansas since 1939. The state last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932. Marshall, a former OB-GYN from Great Bend, had counted on reelection in a deeply Republican state that President Donald Trump won easily in 2024.
Hamilton, a first-time candidate, ran as a unifying figure and drew some Republican support.
Polls showed a closer race than Kansas’ partisan lean suggested. A late-October CNN poll found Hamilton at 49% and Marshall at 45%, with no clear leader given the margin of error, even though voters said they preferred Republican control of the Senate. CNN reported that most Marshall voters viewed him unfavorably and that a majority of Hamilton’s backers said their vote was mainly about opposing Marshall. Hamilton had the support of roughly 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the broadest crossover among the Democratic candidates CNN tested.
The campaign turned in part on Marshall’s record and finances. The American Prospect reported on his decades-long business ties to private equity executive Dan Tasset and on legislation he sponsored benefiting physician-owned hospitals, while Marshall’s campaign counsel said he “operates in full compliance with all applicable rules and laws.” In their final debate, Marshall said he would eliminate the cap on income subject to the Social Security payroll tax, a position the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board criticized, while Hamilton said he would raise the cap but not eliminate it.
Trump and national Republicans worked to turn out the base. Trump rallied for Marshall near Wichita on Oct. 19 and announced $8 billion in new aid for farmers struggling with high diesel prices. He also promised year-round E15 fuel sales if Marshall won. Marshall himself said Republicans don’t win “unless President Trump’s voters get out and vote.”
The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund earmarked $14 million for Kansas and had spent nearly $12 million there by late October, after pausing spending in North Carolina and Georgia.