New research points to an opening for Democrats with a key voting demographic as they look ahead to next year's midterms and the 2028 presidential election.
Voto Latino researchers found that about 4.5 million Latino voters who cast ballots in 2020 did not vote in 2024, and about 70 percent of those "drop-off voters" were predicted to be Democrats and about 48 percent of them were modeled as strong Democrats, which confirmed the group's suspicions heading into last year's election, reported The Hill.
“Our frustration was that we were seeing all these folks that were never contacted even leading up to the election, and this election, I would say, was a persuasion campaign," said Maria Teresa Kumar, the organization’s founding president and CEO. "It wasn’t turnout, but even in that turnout, there was a huge deficit on who the campaign ended up reaching.”
Voto Latino and similar organizations conducted outreach operations to low-propensity voters in ahead of last year's election in Nevada, Pennsylvania and other battle ground states, and Kumar was shocked to find “we were their first touch.”
The group's research found Latinos younger than the age of 40 accounted for almost half of the drop-off in voting, and about 80 percent of those voters were predicted to be Democrats and just under half of them were considered to be strong Democrats.
“They didn’t show up because they weren’t motivated by Joe Biden or Kamala Harris and they thought Donald Trump is a racist,” said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha. “Their lives, no matter which party they vote for, haven’t really changed.”
Donald Trump garnered 48 percent of the Hispanic vote in November, primarily among Latino men, while 51 percent of Hispanic voters backed Harris, but the president has already lost much of their support since last year.
"A New York Times/Siena poll out late last month showed 69 percent of surveyed Hispanics said they disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 58 percent said the economy has gotten worse since Trump took office," The Hill reported. "A Reuters/Ipsos poll echoed those results, with just 32 percent of Hispanic voters approving of the president’s job performance."
Polling by the left-leaning Somos Votantes noticed a similar pattern in a survey last month that found Trump underwater by 20 points, but Kumar said Democrats still must work to energize Hispanic voters.
“No, the party has not gotten better, I would say, and the reason being, is because if you were to ask the Latino voters what policy issues and relief do the Democrats stand for that are going to make them less scared, able to pay rent, there’s still no policy platform on it, and yet they they’re seeing their loved ones getting picked up and kidnapped in broad daylight,” Kumar said.
“To this day, with the exception I would say of the Hispanic caucus, there has not been collective outrage to what is happening in the Latino community,” Kumar added.