'Sense of betrayal' driving 'big shift' in Trump support that could sink GOP

President Donald Trump's "betrayal" of a key voter demographic that propelled him to re-election threatens to devastate Republican prospects in the 2026 midterms.

Economic pain and aggressive immigration enforcement have shattered the coalition that delivered Trump's electoral comeback, according to a new survey by the U.S. Hispanic Business Council, shared with Politico, which found that 42 percent say their economic situation has worsened, compared to only 24 percent who say it's improving.

“The broader Hispanic community certainly feels let down,” said Javier Palomarez, the organization’s president and CEO. “It would be different if immigration and the economy had not been principal talking points for [Trump]. On both fronts, we didn’t get what we thought we were going to get.”

Nearly two-thirds of respondents in a survey just before the 2024 election said they trusted Trump more on the economy than Kamala Harris, but 70 percent now say the cost of living is a top-three issue facing the country – more than double any other issue.

In 2024, Trump won an unprecedented 48 percent of Hispanic voters — the highest for a Republican in at least half a century — driven primarily by economic anxiety. Yet just months into his second term, his net favorability among Hispanics has plummeted to 28 percent, a 13-point collapse since February 2025.

The disconnect between Trump's messaging and Latino lived experience is growing wider, as the administration touts inflation cooling and delivers speeches touting an "A+++" economy. A November Politico poll found 48 percent of Hispanic respondents said the cost of living is "the worst I can ever remember it being." A Pew Research survey showed 68 percent of U.S. Hispanics believe their situation worsened over the past year, with only 9 percent reporting improvement.

Immigration enforcement has compounded that economic anguish. ICE raids targeting immigrant-heavy communities have devastated Hispanic-owned businesses.

“It sends a really negative message to the 48 percent of Hispanic voters that voted for President Trump,” said Sam Sanchez, CEO of Third Coast Hospitality. “Everything’s just starting to fall apart.”

Joe Vichot, the GOP chair in Lehigh County, Pennsylvania, said he knows many Hispanic Republicans in his area who support curbing illegal immigration and fighting crime, but he said Trump's crackdown has hurt Latino communities.

“But there’s also stories of people who have been here for 10 years or more with their family, but they’ve never been legal, that are now caught up into the [deportation] system,” Vichot said.

Trump's betrayal of this crucial constituency could prove catastrophic for GOP chances in 2026, as the Hispanic voters who delivered his 2024 victory now fleeing.

“[Trump’s] agenda literally does little to nothing to help Hispanic families,” said Democratic strategist Christian Ulvert. “Worse, it preys on Hispanic families, and what we heard on the campaign trail most pointedly is the old adage: is my life better today than it was yesterday under new leaders? And resoundingly, not only verbally, but through the ballot box throughout the year, Hispanic families are saying, ‘no, my life is actually worse.’”