The 'MAGA civil war' narrative has been greatly exaggerated

This week, the Republicans in the House passed a budget resolution that would, if it later becomes law, take nearly a trillion dollars away from Medicaid over 10 years to cut taxes for the very obscenely rich.

Every House Democrat voted against it. Even so, the way is clear from House leaders to begin negotiations with the Senate Republicans. They are trying to make things “revenue-neutral” to dodge the filibuster.

The move aroused the belief among liberals and Democrats that the Republicans are themselves heading for trouble with their own people, as most of the more than 80 million Americans who are on Medicaid are supporters of Donald Trump. Indeed, Medicaid recipients are more highly concentrated in red states compared to blue states. Yet every single Republican voted Tuesday night to take their healthcare away.

As evidence of the trouble ahead, liberals and Democrats cited the various town halls that have made headlines in which Trump supporters appear to take issue with the president’s assault on the federal government, including firing people who voted for him.

Liberals and Democrats also cited Steve Bannon. They quoted a segment from his February 14 podcast in which he warned the president and billionaire Elon Musk, who is spearheading the assault, that “you got to be careful, because a lot of magas [are] on Medicaid. I’m telling you, if you don’t think so, you are dead wrong. Medicaid is going to be a complicated one. Just can’t take a meat axe to it.”

This tension was reflected in a segment aired Monday in which ABC News reporter Rachel Bade accidentally told the truth. Most people think Medicaid is just for the poor, for “inner cities, more Democratic areas” – which is to say, Black – but that’s not true, she said. One in five receive assistance. Today, Hart Research released a poll showing that 71 percent of Trump voters said Medicaid cuts are unacceptable.

Because Bannon has called Musk a “phony” who is in league with the Chinese Communist Party, which is to say, not one of “the chosen people,” liberals and Democrats are taking his warning against cutting Medicaid as sign of brewing civil war inside magaworld – between white working-class people, represented by Bannon, and the very obscenely rich, represented by Musk. There’s a lot of effort right now to demonstrate that the Republicans are not the party of working class Americans. Critics say there’s no better evidence than the Republicans’ attempt to rob 80 million ordinary people and give to the .001 percent?

It’s here, however, that I think many liberals and Democrats are making a basic mistake. Donald Trump’s people don’t support him in spite of the fact that he’s a crooked billionaire. They support him because of that fact. There is no cognitive dissonance, because their bond has little or nothing to do with money. It has everything to do with prejudice against a system of government that treats everyone equally.

Billionaires have so much wealth that they can do pretty much whatever they want. Trump voters know they can’t have that kind of money. But with his support, they can have that kind of impunity.

Liberals and Democrats tend to believe that Bannon’s warning is about cutting Medicaid for everyone, but a shrewder reading of his fuller remarks shows something different – and the complexity of the challenge ahead for Democrats who are trying to mount a resistance. He does not say do not cut Medicaid, because “a lot of magas [are] on Medicaid.” He says go ahead and cut it, but not for the magas.

In that February 14 podcast, Bannon doubted that Musk was cutting spending. He said that if he is really serious about dismantling the government, he would “stop whining about entitlements. Get into that discretionary spending. Get into the Pentagon. Get into Medicaid.”

So Bannon’s warning wasn’t a warning as much as a note of caution: be careful with Trump’s people. As Bannon said: “You got to be careful because a lot of magas [are] on Medicaid. I’m telling you, if you don’t think so, you are dead wrong. Medicaid is going to be a complicated one. Just can’t take a meat axe to it, although I would love to.”

In other words, use a scalpel. Precision cuts for non-white people who are undeserving of a safety-net. No cuts for white people who are.

But even this might be too generous a reading of Bannon’s remarks.

As he said, he wouldn’t take a meat axe to Medicaid, “although I would love to.” There is a plenty of risk to cutting healthcare for Trump’s people, but there’s also plenty of room for convincing them that Trump and the Republicans are cutting it for the sake of the country. This is where liberals and Democrats make another mistake: underestimating how much suffering Trump’s voters are willing to endure in his name.

People who can be told to believe that Haitians eat dogs – or that the covid isn’t real or that Democrats drink the blood of children – can also be told to believe that losing their healthcare is a good thing. Given Trump’s hold on their minds, they might believe it. It’s unlikely that they will complain about tax cuts, or the assault on the government, even if it hurts them, not as long as he gives them someone to blame.

Liberal and Democrats find themselves in a position in which they must trust Trump voters to figure out that the president and his party are screwing them. That is misplaced trust, to say the least, because their bond isn’t about money or policy. It’s about power, namely hate.

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