Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to unseat Republican Dan Sullivan in Alaska, NBC News’ Decision Desk said Saturday as ballot counting continued. A win would give Democrats a 56-44 Senate majority next year.
NBC said it was at least 95% confident Peltola would flip the seat for Democrats. The network has yet to call the race, its last unresolved Senate contest of the midterms.
“There is no mathematical path for Sullivan to win this race,” Peltola’s campaign wrote Friday.
Marc Elias, an election attorney and founder of Democracy Docket, cited Peltola’s 10,412-vote lead and predicted she would be sworn in Jan. 3.
“She is going to be the next Senator from Alaska,” he told his social media followers in a Saturday post, adding, “Trump weaponized the DOJ to try to rig the outcome. He lost in court. When we fight we win.”
With 96% of the expected vote counted, NBC estimates Peltola needs 53.8% of the remaining ballots to win outright. She took 58% of the votes reported Friday night.
Peltola also has an advantage if the race goes to ranked-choice tabulation, according to NBC. More than 45% of voters who backed other candidates ranked neither Peltola nor Sullivan, the network found.
"Which means that these ballots will play no role in the ranked-choice tabulation," an NBC analysis said. If that pattern holds, the network estimates only about 6,600 ballots would transfer to the top two candidates, fewer than Sullivan would need to erase Peltola's current lead.
Alaska will run the ranked-choice count Nov. 18 if no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes.