'Scandals matter': Data guru warns GOP leaders risking majority on embattled lawmaker
Domestic abuse allegations have sent an Ohio Republican's re-election odds into free fall, according to a new analysis, and GOP leadership's continued support could cost them a House majority.
Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) has refused to end his campaign despite domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he denies, and neither President Donald Trump nor House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have called on him to drop out.
CNN's Harry Enten said the scandal has already reshaped the race for Ohio's 7th Congressional District.
"Max Miller is going to cost his party, most likely cost his party a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives," Enten warned.
Prediction markets have swung dramatically since the allegations became public, Enten said. On the Kalshi betting market, Democratic candidate Brian Poindexter's odds of winning the seat jumped from 37 percent on July 25 to 70 percent now, while Miller's odds cratered over the same period, falling from 64 percent to 30 percent — a reversal that began just 10 days after the scandal broke.
Enten found that House members embroiled in scandal historically get re-elected only 57 percent of the time, compared with 85 percent for members overall — a roughly 30-point penalty.
"Scandals still do matter in our politics," Enten said.
Local interest in the story appears unusually high. Google search traffic for "Max Miller" in the Cleveland-Akron area, the lawmaker's home turf, has spiked 3,200 percent over the past two weeks – a record high for searches about him in the district.
Republicans were already trending down in Ohio, which has become a reliably red state in recent years, Enten said.
Voters who backed Donald Trump by 11 points over Kamala Harris in 2024 now give the president a net approval rating of negative 13 — a nearly 25-point swing in under two years. Because Ohio's 7th District tends to mirror statewide trends, that erosion compounds Miller's problems.
"This is already shaping up to be a bad Republican year in Ohio," Enten said. "When you have a scandal to tack onto it, no wonder the prediction markets have moved like they have."
"You put it all together, it is is no wonder why I said at the top of this [that] Max Miller, already running in a tough environment with this scandal, and if he continues to run, will likely cost his party a House seat," Enten added.
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