President Donald Trump boasts he has brought illegal border crossings into the United States to record lows, but experts say the reasons for the drop go beyond his hardline anti-immigration stance.
"Within hours of taking the oath of office, I declared a national emergency on our southern border. And I deployed the US military and Border Patrol to repel the invasion of our country," Trump said Tuesday, in a speech to a joint session of Congress.
"What a job they’ve done. As a result, illegal border crossings last month were by far the lowest ever recorded," he said.
"They (undocumented migrants) heard my words and they chose not to come. Much easier that way."
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Indeed, the number of undocumented immigrants apprehended at the southern border with Mexico was a record low of 8,326 in February, according to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which has reported the figure since 2000.
The number had already been declining -- to 29,116 in January, down 38.5 percent from December -- but the drop accelerated after Trump returned to the White House on January 20.
The previous record was in April 2017, when CBP intercepted 11,127 migrants near the start of Trump's first term.
The figure rose to a high of 249,740 in December 2023 under former president Joe Biden, before his administration cracked down on undocumented immigration, realizing it was a political liability.
Is Trump's return responsible for the drop?
Only partly, said Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, of the Migration Policy Institute think tank.
"The 38% drop in irregular encounters is likely driven by the wait and see period for migrants already in Mexico," she wrote on X.
Many migrants from Central and South America are currently on pause at the US-Mexican border to see how Trump's crackdown plays out, according to Putzel-Kavanaugh.
The US military announced last week it was deploying 3,000 troops to the border, and the Trump administration has vowed to carry out mass deportations.
But the number of border apprehensions started dropping under the Biden administration's crackdown. And Mexico -- fending off Trump's threat of tariffs -- has been taking aggressive action on its side, too.
It has deployed National Guard troops to patrol the border, allowed US deportation flights to southern Mexico and helped repatriate undocumented migrants to their home countries.
Trump thanked Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday as he announced he was delaying tariffs on most goods from Mexico, praising her for her work "stopping illegal aliens" and fentanyl from crossing the border.
Since January, AFP journalists have documented numerous cases of migrants abandoning their attempts to reach the United States.
Whether the trend will continue remains an open question.
Illegal border crossings also plunged in 2017 at the start of Trump's first term -- then surged in 2019, as the Republican billionaire struggled to build his promised border wall and faced a series of Central American migrant caravans.