Republicans told donors a week ago that their Senate nominee in Minnesota was “TIED.” She lost by about 10 points.
Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Republican Michele Tafoya, according to The Associated Press. With more than 95% of the vote counted, Flanagan had 53.7% to Tafoya’s 43.6%, a lead of nearly 290,000 votes, according to The New York Times. Flanagan will succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. A member of the Ojibwe Nation, she is the first Native American woman elected to the U.S. Senate, according to The Boston Globe.
Flanagan’s margin was wider than Kamala Harris’ roughly 4-point win in Minnesota in 2024 and Smith’s 5-point win in 2020, according to the Times. Counties that had nearly finished counting shifted about 6 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential race. In suburban Anoka County, which Republicans have long targeted, Flanagan won narrowly, running 6 points better than Harris did there.
The result is an embarrassment for Republicans who insisted the race was within reach. In a fundraising email titled “Democrats just made a huge mistake,” the National Republican Senatorial Committee claimed Democrats had “let their guard down” and that Republicans were “SURGING in historically blue states!”
“For example, our Senate nominee in Minnesota, Michele Tafoya, is statically TIED with her Democrat opponent right now!” the email read, apparently meaning “statistically.” It didn’t cite a poll. “The 2026 map is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before,” the email added.
The last two public polls listed by the Times showed Flanagan ahead. Mason-Dixon had her up 4 points in early October, and a New York Times/Siena poll conducted Oct. 19-26 had her up 14.
President Donald Trump weighed in hours after the NRSC email on Truth Social.
“Let’s all get behind Michele Tafoya in Minnesota. She’s running a great race,” Trump wrote. “The only way she can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the Ballots as they come in.”
He also repeated his false claim that “I won Minnesota three times, but they didn’t give me the Victories.” Trump lost the state to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020 and Harris in 2024. No Republican presidential nominee has carried Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972.
Tafoya, a former NBC and Fox sportscaster best known as an NFL sideline reporter, was making her first run for office. The Times reported that the two candidates had sparred over fraud in state programs and over rising costs it attributed to the Iran war and the Trump administration’s tariffs.
The loss came on a rough night for Republicans nationally. Democrats won control of the House, according to the Times, and flipped Senate seats in states including Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina.