Glaring signs spotted GOP barreling toward ‘worst midterm’ of the century

The 2026 election could become Republicans’ "worst midterm" of the century, with President Donald Trump polling worse on several measures than he did before the GOP’s massive losses in 2018, according to a new CNN analysis.

CNN analyst Aaron Blake also compared this year’s bruising numbers for Republicans with 2006, when the party lost control of Congress under President George W. Bush.

“All told, Trump is about twice as far underwater as the GOP president was in both of those midterms," Blake wrote Friday. "The 2026 midterm election is now looking like it could be even worse for the GOP – by several metrics."

One key finding stands out: Data journalist G. Elliott Morris noted that Trump appears to be the most unpopular president heading into a midterm in modern history. A new CNN poll puts Trump’s approval 34 points underwater among U.S. adults. His approval on the economy is even lower, at 27%, while 73% disapprove.

Blake also pointed to opposition to the Iran war and a growing number of voters who say their ballot will send a message against Trump.

“With Trump telling GOP voters explicitly to act as if he is on the ballot, it’s fair to project that his unpopularity could spell trouble for his party this November,” Blake wrote.

But there’s a catch for Democrats: Their eight-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is smaller than their lead at this stage before the 2006 and 2018 elections. Blake added that the party’s own brand “is still poor.”

He still concluded Friday, “For now, every other major measure appears to be very bad for Trump and the GOP."