An analysis of first-day early voting data in Texas stunned countless onlookers Tuesday morning, with some interpreting the findings as an early sign of a seismic shift in a state where Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in more than three decades.
“This is amazing,” wrote Kshitiz Lamba, an election data analyst who was named by the New Jersey Globe as 2025 “Pundit of the Year” for his “incredible speed” and “considerable accuracy.” “Clear change in patterns.”
According to Tolga Sahin, a Texas-based election data analyst and contributor to VoteHub, the partisan makeup of first-day in-person voters in Collin and Denton counties — two suburban counties north of Dallas that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 — swung 19.2 points toward Democratic primary voters compared with the first day of early voting in the 2022 midterms.
While the figures reflect voters’ previous participation in partisan primaries, not how they voted in the general election, Sahin called his analysis “the first meaningful partisan interpretation of the in person early voting.”
Denise McNamara, the Trump-supporting former national committee member for the Texas GOP, called Sahin’s analysis “crazy,” arguing that the record-high midterm turnout “feels like a presidential year.”
Others, like Adam Cochran, an independent journalist and adjunct professor of information science at Conestoga College in Ontario, argued the early data boded poorly for GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton, and favorably for his Democratic opponent, Texas state Rep. James Talarico.
“Holy s---! 19.2 point swing towards Dems among prior voters in Texas!” Cochran wrote in a social media post on X. “So unless you think Paxton is somehow crushing it with new voters, the increased numbers look great for Talarico!”
Author Brittany Belle also expressed shock at the data, suggesting, like Cochran, that it could spell trouble for Paxton.
“OMG!!!!! A 19.2-POINT SWING TOWARD DEMOCRATS among previous voters in Texas!” Belle wrote. “Unless Paxton is making up that ground with new voters, these numbers look VERY encouraging for Talarico!”
There are going to be so many House Republicans I’ve never heard of losing their seats in two weeks to Democrats I’ve never heard of. I’ll be a googling maniac on the Breaking Points set, pretending I totally tracked that race.
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) October 20, 2026