'Projecting doom': Leaked text shows swing state Republicans bracing for disaster

A GOP political analyst sounded the alarm Tuesday morning just as voters started heading to the polls for the midterms, warning that their own election models were projecting a dire outcome for Republicans.

“God all my models are already projecting doom. And it’s 8am,” reads a text message from the unnamed GOP analyst shared by Garrett Archer, a prominent election data analyst, journalist and ex-GOP strategist.

Archer, who serves as a data analyst for ABC15 Arizona, emphasized that the text from the unnamed GOP analyst pertained to Arizona’s elections, where several major races were on the ballot Tuesday.

At the top of the ticket, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking a second term against Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ). A Noble Predictive Insights poll released last week found Hobbs leading Biggs 51% to 45% among likely voters, a lead outside the poll’s margin of error. Other recent polls have shown Hobbs ahead by anywhere from 6 to 13 points, according to MultiState.

Democrats also led in the state’s other top races. The same poll found Secretary of State Adrian Fontes ahead of Republican state Rep. Alexander Kolodin 50% to 44%, while Attorney General Kris Mayes led Republican state Senate President Warren Petersen 50% to 46%, a lead barely within the margin of error.

Two congressional races in the state could also help decide control of the U.S. House. In the open 1st Congressional District, Democrat Amish Shah faces former NFL kicker Jay Feely, a Republican backed by President Donald Trump. Despite the district’s Republican registration advantage, the Cook Political Report rates the race “lean Democratic,” while Inside Elections calls it “tilt Democratic,” Axios previously reported.

In the 6th Congressional District, Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in a race that forecasters have rated a toss-up or lean Democratic. Internal polls from both parties showed Mendoza narrowly ahead, 47% to 45% in a Democratic poll and 47% to 44% in a Republican one, according to VoteSee.