'Real advantage': Tantalizing hint revealed in early Florida returns

Two election analysts say Florida’s turnout data suggest Democrats are more energized than they were in 2024, though one cautions the numbers likely aren’t enough for a Democratic win there, according to posts on X.

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report wrote that Florida passed 7 million ballots cast by 2 p.m., compared with a final 11 million in 2024 and 7.8 million in 2022.

By his figures, registered Democrats have reached 71 percent of their total 2024 turnout, compared with 63 percent for Republicans and 56 percent for nonparty and other voters. Republicans lead overall turnout by 7.1 points, down from 11.1 points in 2024’s final tally. He called it a “modest but clear Dem enthusiasm advantage.”

G. Elliott Morris of FiftyPlusOne said he doesn’t think the Florida numbers are good enough for Democrats to win, and that the outcome depends on how nonparty voters break. He said ballot data are most useful for gauging the swing since the last election and comparing it with polls to get a read on possible polling error before votes are counted.

Morris wrote that returns in Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Arizona, Kentucky and elsewhere show a relative Democratic turnout advantage above 2024 and 2022 levels and “verging on 2018.” He said that tracks with what polls showed and offers “some validation” for at least one driver of Democratic polling gains: a turnout edge reflected in a wide gap between results among likely voters and registered voters.

He cautioned that uncertainty remains over how many partisans will back their own party’s candidates and how nonparty voters split. He pushed back on claims that Florida shows Republicans having a good night, acknowledging the GOP leads in raw numbers but arguing the data show polls picked up on genuine Democratic enthusiasm.

“Will that hold? We’ll have to wait and see!” Morris wrote.