Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could be pushed out after the midterms if President Donald Trump goes looking for someone to blame for the unpopular war with Iran, warned a retired Special Forces officer.
Mike Nelson, who spent more than two decades in the Army and is now a fellow at the National Security Institute, made the prediction on New York Times columnist David French's podcast, "The Opinions," comparing Hegseth's precarious position to that of Donald Rumsfeld, who resigned as defense secretary after Republicans' 2006 midterm losses.
"I do think there's a chance, if the president is unaware of how unpopular the Iran war is, that after the midterms he may seek to find someone, just as Secretary Donald Rumsfeld resigned after the 2006 midterms, that Secretary Hegseth may be not long for this world in the administration if the president looks for someone to point the finger to," Nelson said.
"There's never been a less popular war since World War II, since modern polling," he added.
Nelson also raised the possibility that Trump isn't getting the full picture from his defense secretary, saying that he can't prove it as a fact, but he strongly suspects Hegseth's upbeat public messaging might also extend to the Oval Office.
"If Secretary Hegseth is presenting all rosy information to the American people, he may also be doing that to the president himself, underplaying the risks and saying that the military can accomplish everything that he wants," Nelson said said.
Nelson said Hegseth has been focused from the start on his own image, describing him as having "a primary motivation of controlling the narrative of what he was doing — not so much what the Department of Defense was doing, but what he personally was doing."
"He's primarily a showman, so he has his canned catchphrases that he likes to say," Nelson said.
Nelson also predicted that Rep. Thomas Massie's (R-KY) the pending impeachment motion will sting, even if it ultimately fails.
"I don't think it's likely he's going to be removed from office, but I do think it's likely he's going to get more votes against him than he probably realizes," he said, "and that will probably cause embarrassment for all involved."
Nelson accused Hegseth of "purging those innovators who currently exist and replacing them with sycophants who are primarily motivated by personal loyalty."
He also warned that pressure on the war could grow after November. Lame-duck Republicans whom Trump didn't back in their primaries, and who "now have basically nothing to lose," have already voted to restrain the conflict.
"I think that highlights the importance of the president making the case that he has not made yet, neither to the American people nor to Congress, why it is important," Nelson said. "He defaults to these very short bumper-sticker answers: We should pay more for high gas prices than Iran getting a nuclear weapon."
"There needs to be more of an explanation for what the long-term strategy is," he added.