'Rather be Harris today': Nate Silver tells Fox News presidential race has shifted
August 14, 2024
Election forecaster Nate Silver has been one of the most bullish on former President Donald Trump's chances at re-election in recent months, but even he believes the winds have shifted.
In an interview on Fox News Wednesday evening, Silver said he believes the picture has changed dramatically in the few short weeks since President Joe Biden abandoned his re-election campaign and stepped aside for Vice President Kamala Harris.
"Polls are a snapshot of the time," said anchor Bret Baier. "You talk about this all the time. But where is the snapshot that you see right now in this race?"
"If you have the election tomorrow, which would be a strange thing to do by the way, I think Harris would be a slight favorite," said Silver. "She has been ahead in most recent polling in the 'blue wall' states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada all polling in the margin of error range."
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"Look, this Fox News poll is pretty good for Trump, that will help a little bit when we update our model tomorrow," he added. However, "You would rather be Harris today. People should remember though two things. One, we have three more months to go, there will be more surprises, and two, the polls have been wrong before, in the last two general elections they've both underestimated Trump."
"Polling is difficult," he cautioned in response to Baier asking how that underestimation occurred.
This comes as Goldman Sachs analysts take a similar assessment, noting that they are seeing a shift in voter preferences toward Democrats across the board in the past few weeks.
Watch the video below or at the link here.
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