Republicans are bracing for an election night that could bring once-unthinkable losses in deep-red territory, and they're privately debating not whether they’ll lose their House majority, but by how many seats.
Six people involved in internal discussions told Politico that imperiled GOP incumbents in once-safe districts have been begging party leaders for more money in the final days. Some made an “eyebrow-raising emergency decision” and stopped doing their own polling weeks ago. Three of those people said the incumbents were saving every dollar while they waited for help from President Donald Trump’s political operation and the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“It could be quite a brutal evening,” said one senior Republican involved in private conversations. “Once the dominoes start falling it becomes hard to stop them.”
Asked about the political environment, one Republican strategist simply sent a video of a burning dumpster being swept away by floodwaters.
Even deep-red Louisiana has Republicans worried, as early voting shows a surge of Black voters and other Democratic-leaning voters across the South. Trump will hold an election-eve tele-rally for Senate nominee Julia Letlow, joined by Speaker Mike Johnson.
“The cakewalk turned into a knife fight,” said a Louisiana Republican who recently spoke with Letlow. “If Democrat turnout surges on Election Day, it’ll be a long night in Monroe.” That person expects Letlow to win by just 6 points in a state Trump carried by 22.
Trump also canceled in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa scheduled for this weekend and will hold tele-rallies instead.
“Any Democrats telling you they aren’t winning the Senate [besides] a couple of seats are sandbagging expectations,” the senior Republican said.
In Ohio, Republicans have watched with horror as GOP gubernatorial nominee “Vivek’s [Ramaswamy’s] numbers have gone off a cliff,” according to internal polling. The drop followed a widely condemned ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother. Republicans also expect Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) to lose in a district Trump won by double digits.
In southern Minnesota, Rep. Brad Finstad said his warnings about Democratic spending in his district went unheeded.
“We raised that with anybody and everybody that would want to hear it,” Finstad said. “From a global perspective, people were like, ‘Well, you won by 18, you’re fine.’”
The Republican National Committee lashed out at the report.
“Politico’s sad little rolodex of loser strategists have no idea what they’re talking about, and if they really believe what they’re saying they should come out of the shadows and put a name to their brain-dead comments,” said RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre.
Democrats are upbeat, but they aren’t counting on anything.
“I would rather be us than them. But if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen, they’re full of s---,” one senior Senate Democratic operative said. “Everything is close.”
One GOP strategist working on a campaign that is trending toward Democrats offered a bleaker kind of comfort.
“I can see the light at the end of the tunnel,” the strategist said. “It might be a semi-truck, but at least I can see it.”