'Uh-oh': 'Warning signs for Republicans' reported amid 'clear Democratic momentum'
Republicans across the country are looking to redraw their state's congressional maps, and CNN's Harry Enten presented polling data that might explain their zeal.
Texas Democrats have left the state to deprive the GOP-led legislature the quorum needed to pass a redistricting plan that could gain five new U.S. House seats for Republicans, and lawmakers in Indiana and other states may try to do the same at the urging of President Donald Trump, and Enten told "CNN News Central" that's because they're in danger of losing their congressional majorities.
"We're talking about warning signs for the Republican Party," Enten said, "and I will just say uh-oh for them. That is the phrase of the day – uh-oh. Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot, and you can see their lead is expanding. It's becoming bigger. Look at this: In spring, CNBC [polling] it was two [points], now it's five. How about Ipsos? It was one for the Democrats, now it's four. How about the Wall Street Journal? It was one, and now it is three. So now the average lead here is four, which is up from just about a point. That's about a three-point move on average in the Democrats' direction."
"Of course, when this is coming amidst the fights over redistricting," Enten added, "I think there's going to be a lot of people wondering, 'Wait a minute, are Republicans wanting to change the lines because they are losing,' which they absolutely are on the generic congressional ballot at this point. Democrats are winning, Republicans are losing, and maybe they're trying to change the lines in order to give themselves a little bit more wiggle room, given what we're seeing, a clear Democratic momentum on the generic congressional ballot."
Party identification is also trending toward Democrats, according to Enten.
"The generic congressional ballot, how about party identification, right?" Enten said. "Because the idea is if you're a Democrat, you're very likely to vote Democrat. If you're a Republican, you're very likely to vote Republican. Take a look here: The party ID margin, Democrats versus Republicans, look in quarter one of this year, Quinnipiac, Republicans had a lead of a point. Gallup, it was tight. Look at where we are now in the latest measures – again, Democratic momentum. This is a five-point move to the Democrats, according to Quinnipiac. Now they're up by four on party ID. How about Gallup?"
"What we see is Democrats ahead ahead by three points, so, again what you're seeing is clear movement towards the Democratic Party on a very key metric," he added. "Because if you're identifying as Democratic, you're far more likely to vote for the Democrat. If you're identifying as Republican, you're far more likely to vote Republican, and I will note that this is a change from last year, especially among Gallup, when Republicans held a rare lead heading into the 2024 election."
Leave a Comment
Related Post