'Scary for Republicans': GOP strategist predicts rough outcome for his party in tight race

An ex-GOP strategist warned Friday that Republicans are facing a potential disaster in Tennessee’s upcoming special congressional election – a race in a deep-red district that should otherwise be, in his words, “a layup.”

Joseph Moreno, a former federal prosecutor and current CNN commentator, said Friday the signs are unmistakably troubling for the GOP in Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District, where a Dec. 2 special election has unexpectedly tightened. The district is so heavily Republican, according to Moreno, that President Donald Trump won it by more than 22 points in 2024.

“This should be a layup, right? This should be a really easy race,” Moreno said. “That fact that it’s polling within 5 points, maybe 2 points – that’s scary for Republicans.”

He went on to warn that the tightening race fits a familiar pattern in U.S. politics.

“It’s consistent with what we saw in ’93-’94, in 2005-2006, even 2021-2022 – the off-year election followed by the midterm,” Moreno said. “It’s going to be rough even under good circumstances for Republicans.”

He added: “If inflation is high and Trump remains this polarizing, which of course he will, it’ll be bad, it’s just a question of how bad.”

Sabrina Singh, a CNN political commentator and global affairs analyst, emphasized that Republicans should never have had to spend money defending a seat Trump carried by over 20 points.

“Even if she loses by 10 points, that’s a real clear indicator of where the electorate is,” Singh argued, referring to Democratic nominee and state Rep. Aftyn Behn.

“The fact that they made Republicans spend, I think, is a big deal,” she said.