The argument that Florida is no longer a swing state, but rather, a deep red state, was validated in the 2024 presidential election when Donald Trump defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harrisby 13 percent. Trump's victory followed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' 19 percent reelection landslide in the 2022 midterms.
Many of the swing states that Trump lost in 2020 but carried in 2024 were close, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. Florida, however, acted like the type of red state where it's normal for Republicans to win statewide races by double digits.
On April 1, two special elections for U.S. House of Representatives seats will be held in Florida — elections that, Bloomberg News' Mary Ellen Klas emphasizes in a Thursday column, will be an important referendum on Trump's presidency and Democrats' prospects in the 2026 midterms.
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In Florida's 1st Congressional District, Democrat Gay Valimont is competing with Republican Jimmy Patronis for the seat formerly held by ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). And in another district, Democrat Josh Weil is up against Florida State Sen. Randy Fine; they are competing for the seat previously held by ex-Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), now national security adviser for the Trump Administration.
Valimont, Klas notes, "has raised more than $6.5 million — three times more than Republican Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, who has raised $2.1 million." Meanwhile, Weil, Klas adds, "has raised more than $9.4 million — mostly in sums of under $200 — compared to Fine’s $987,000."
"It’s true that the GOP candidates remain the favorites simply because these congressional districts have been gerrymandered to give Republicans a voter registration advantage," Klas argues. "But now that Trump has done things he never promised and promised things he hasn't done — all while telling Americans they’re in for 'a little pain' — both the turnout and the vote should tell us how much buyer's remorse voters feel."
The Bloomberg News columnist adds, "Trump has endorsed both Patronis and Fine, and although the president's approval rating in the state has been falling, it still remains above water in Florida opinion polls. But Democrats from across the country are using the Florida race to send a message to the president that his performance comes with a political cost."
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Valimont told Klas, "The tide's turning here. We have the largest district of vets in the state, and second nationally…. Our veterans are freaking out."
If Valimont and Weil lose on April 1, Klas emphasizes, the important thing to pay attention to will be by how much. And Democrats, she writes, should look for signs of "buyer's remorse" among Trump voters.
"This is not the first referendum on Trump," Klas argues. "In January, Democrats in Iowa flipped a State Senate seat Trump had won by 21 points. And this week, Democrats seized another in conservative Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, which had been held by Republicans for over 40 years. So watch the margins in Florida next week. Voters could signal how much 'pain' they are willing to absorb."
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Mary Ellen Klas' full Bloomberg News column is available at this link (subscription required).