Democrats have a rare golden opportunity in a deep red stronghold

A Doug Jones gubernatorial campaign was always going to be a “yes, but” proposition.

Can Jones do the job? Yes. Absolutely. But competence is no guarantee of victory.

Can Jones become his party’s nominee? Yes. Almost certainly. But there are two other Democrats in the race — Will Boyd and Chad “Chig” Martin — and Jones will first have to lock down his base. All three candidates should be mindful of Republicans crossing over for chaos purposes, especially if the GOP contest is noncompetitive.

Can Jones raise money? Yes. He pulled in $25.7 million in his 2017 U.S. Senate race and $31 million for his reelection bid in 2020. But in 2017, he faced former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, who had long struggled to raise money. And unlike 2020, Jones is not the sitting U.S. senator in this race. That’s likely GOP nominee Tommy Tuberville, who has already raised $8.1 million for the campaign.

Can Jones win?

Yes.

The former senator is a formidable campaigner. Sure, he got dealt a good hand in the 2017 campaign. Moore’s nomination divided the GOP, even before the former chief justice faced multiple allegations of sexual assault and misconduct.

Still, good cards are worthless if you don’t play them right. Jones was a model of campaign discipline, laughing off repeated Republican efforts to bait him. In the white hot national spotlight that fell on Alabama that year, there wasn’t a single serious misstep or mishap from the Jones campaign.

Next year’s environment might also benefit Jones. The economy seems shaky. Republicans appear indifferent to rising health-care costs. President Donald Trump’s net favorability rating in Alabama, per the Economist/YouGov poll, was 4.9 percent as of last week — not a particularly great mark in a state he won by 30 points last year.

And Democrats will almost certainly vote for Jones with more enthusiasm than Republicans will for Tuberville. Particularly if Tuberville’s campaign continues issuing comically arrogant statements like this one, treating his election as a foregone conclusion.

But.

There are more Republicans in Alabama who will vote for Tuberville with stone faces than there are Democrats who will cast their ballots with a smile. Straight-ticket voting means that candidate quality and even charisma are irrelevant. In 2022, straight-ticket ballots accounted for two-thirds of all the votes cast in Alabama. Straight-ticket Republican ballots were 44 percent of all votes cast.

In 2020, Jones outraised Tuberville three-to-one and was far more visible and public than his opponent, who said nothing about his plans and largely limited his interviews to conservative lickspittles. He still won.

It won’t be a surprise if Tuberville repeats that turtle strategy in a general election battle with Jones. It worked before. So long as he has that R next to his name, Tuberville is the favorite. Even if he wears a Florida Gators jersey all year.

And that’s before we get to Alabama demographics. In general, we are older, more rural and less educated than the country as a whole. Not trends that favor Democrats.

So yes, it’s probable, even likely, that Jones falls short next November.

But Jones has done a critical service for Democrats.

First, his presence almost certainly means the party will avoid repeating the disaster of 2022.

Underfunding and internecine squabbles have undermined Alabama Democrats’ recruitment efforts for years. But the party somehow managed to find a space below that ground-level bar in 2022. The party’s slate of statewide candidates that year consisted of amateurs and novices. None could raise money. All got blown out.

That almost wrecked downballot Democrats. Amid abysmal turnout, several Black legislators in safe blue seats found themselves in contests that shouldn’t have been close. Rep. Thomas Jackson, D-Thomasville, who represents a district that is about 60 percent Black, barely squeaked by a Republican opponent.

Provided Jones can raise money and wage a statewide campaign, Democrats should hold what they have. Depending on how the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a critical redistricting case out of Louisiana, Jones’ campaign could also be critical for the fortunes of U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Mobile, a likely target of future Republican redistricting efforts.

And while straight-ticket voting could doom Jones statewide, it could be a benefit in a few marginal legislative seats, particularly those in Huntsville. Probably not enough to end the GOP supermajority, but enough to cut it and bring new faces and energy to Goat Hill.

The party should be working from now through qualifying in early January to find as many viable candidates to stand in as many legislative districts as possible. A Jones campaign will help local candidates with statewide exposure and fundraising. A large field of local candidates can keep voters engaged and enthusiastic for Jones.

Win or lose, Jones has given Democrats a rare opportunity for growth next year. Yes, Alabama will be a red state for the foreseeable future. But the former senator gives the party a chance to add some purple hues.

• Brian Lyman is the editor of Alabama Reflector. He has covered Alabama politics since 2006, and worked at the Montgomery Advertiser, the Press-Register and The Anniston Star. A 2024 Pulitzer finalist for Commentary, his work has also won awards from the Associated Press Managing Editors, the Alabama Press Association and Robert F. Kennedy Center for Human Rights. He lives in Auburn with his wife, Julie, and their three children.
• Alabama Reflector is part of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization.