Democracy expert highlights 'devastatingly bad news for Trump' in 2024 election
The Maryland primaries delivered another blow to Donald Trump on Tuesday night, where Nikki Haley walked away with 20 percent of the Republican primary vote. Haley dropped out of the race two months ago.
Speaking to MSNBC about the state of the race, Democracy Docket chief Mark Elias explained to Nicolle Wallace that it isn't merely that Trump isn't doing well with a broad swath of voters in the state. Maryland is a closed primary state, which means only registered Republicans can vote in the GOP primary.
"This is devastatingly bad news for Donald Trump," Elias said. "The fact is the Biden campaign is clearly paying attention to this and is reaching out to these folks, but it is important to emphasize the last point you made. These are not swing voters. These are party-faithful voters."
These voters stuck with the GOP "from 2017 through Jan. 20th, 2021," he continued. "They didn't leave the Republican Party even after Jan. 6th insurrection. These are still registered Republicans, and about a fifth of them are refusing to vote for Donald Trump in these primaries."
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It doesn't merely illustrate a "weakness among his base," Elias said. "This is a calamity for him and his campaign."
At the same time, it's clear there is a hefty enthusiasm gap. Maryland had a competitive Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race, where Rep. David Trone (D-MD) began running ads a year before the election and spent over $60 million on the campaign. He was still trounced by lesser-known Angela Alsobrooks by ten points. She now faces former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD), who left office with positive approvals.
Still, more than 442,000 Democrats voted in the Senate primary, while Republicans scored a little over 236,000 votes. In the presidential race, Trump got 190,515 votes, while Biden got 394,266.
"They're not reaching out to these people because Donald Trump is a child. He is a petulant individual. He has decided that he does not like Nikki Haley, and he has contempt for her and her voters. Rather than giving his campaign the space to make peace with her and her voters, he continues to antagonize them."
He explained that it doesn't matter how many operatives they hire, they'll never change Trump.
"He is an unstable individual who, as you point out, is in decline," Elias noted. "He is bearing a grudge against Nikki Haley and these voters, and come next November, they're not going to vote for Donald Trump. Some of them will vote for Joe Biden, some of them will sit home. But this is, I think, one of the most untold stories of this election right now and I believe it is also not being captured in the public polling we are seeing."
Most polls continue to calculate the national landscape. The popular vote doesn't decide the election. The Electoral College does. Only swing state polls will indicate where the candidates stand in the delegate count.
See the full comments from Elias below or at the link here.
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