Bloomberg opinion columnist Ronald Brownstein argued recent elections show Republicans’ treacherous path to winning in 2026 is more narrow and dangerous than ever.
“For Republicans, November was bookended by two ominous developments: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation and the party's resounding defeats in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races,” said Brownstein.
“The Republican candidates in those races — Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia — tried one strategy for dealing with President Donald Trump: appeasing him at all costs. Greene tried the other: showing some independence from the president. That both roads ended in disaster underscores how narrow a path is available next year to Republicans in competitive states and congressional districts.”
Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears followed the course almost all elected Republicans have adopted in Trump’s shadow after he remade the party in his image. Throughout 2024, both resolutely refused to criticize him, even when Trump took actions that demonstrably hurt their states. This included refusing to criticize Trump laying off thousands of Virginians who work for the federal government, despite the massive layoffs raising the state’s unemploymenr rate.
“Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears fatally refused to change course even as polls for months made clear that Trump's tumultuous second term was bleeding his support. In the end, Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears were both flattened by a tidal wave of discontent over Trump,” said Brownstein.
It did not seem to register with either of the GOP candidates that a solid majority of voters in both New Jersey and Virginia disapproved of Trump, and that more than 90 percent of those disapproving backed the Democratic candidates, according to polls.
“The landslide Democratic wins in both states sent a clear message to any GOP candidates facing competitive races: aligning too closely with Trump in this environment can be dangerous to your political future,” said Brownstein. “But just weeks later, Greene's resignation, under pressure from the president, offered a cautionary addendum: distancing too much from Trump also can be dangerous to your political future.”
Brownstein notes that the Greene flew back to Washington to vote against Trump's second impeachment over his Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — the same night her father had brain surgery for tumors. And yet, Trump labeled her a “traitor" as soon as she parted ways with him on the release of the Justice Department's files on convicted sex-trafficker and Trump friend Jeffrey Epstein.
Green’s district was reliably red, but Brownstein said the choices “are even more excruciating for Republicans running in less reliably red areas.”
“Among Republican strategists it's become conventional wisdom that their candidates can't win without Trump's favor because that's the key to turning out his base of irregular working-class voters. But even if turning out Trump's base is necessary for Republicans in 2026, there's virtually no chance it will be sufficient in competitive races,” Brownstein said.
Trump has occasionally toned down his criticism of Republicans in difficult swing districts, like Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). But with Trump's popularity bombing now in so many districts cross the nation, it would be best for him to go hands-off on many more GOP lawmakers. But that’s not likely, said Brownstein.
“The level of self-awareness and self-discipline such a strategy would require … has not exactly been a hallmark of Trump's volatile political career,” Brownstein said.
