These two factors — and no others — will lead to Trump's defeat

Despite the inarguably awful actions this administration has taken during its first eight months in office, Donald Trump remains largely impervious in the polls — low to be sure but hardly politically threatening, right in his zone. This despite taking some of the most unpopular and undemocratic actions in generations.

Yes, for a brief period, during his first week or two in office, he peaked above a 50 percent approval rating. But since then he has gracefully found the glideslope to his comfort zone, anywhere from 42-46 percent aggregate approval, 50-53 percent disapproval.

Even given the number of unpopular decisions that he has made — DOGE cuts to essential services, masked mauraders kidnapping the innocent, hiding the Epstein files, tariffs, health care cuts — the dynamic remains the same. There is almost nothing the man can do to fall into dangerous, sub-38 percent approval.

But there is are two elements on the horizon, one that likely shouldn't play a huge role but does, another that always does.

First: there are exploding questions about his health.

Is there any there "there?" Seems so. Looks matter, especially within cults of personality. Trump's age — 79 now — matters in the polls.

Much of Trump's mystique among MAGA revolves around his seeming indestructibility, whether concerning his wealth, litigation against him (meagre attempts at criminal accountability, throwing out the award in a major New York civil case), or just his simple, unpleasant aggression.

The dynamic can even seep over to political independents, who see Trump as at least "doing something" and doing it well for himself. It must be working, some think. This is his real superpower.

So indications that Trump's health may be teetering pose a major threat to the perception of invincibility. It's important. If he ever loses the "cape," it is all but impossible to get it back.

Both hands now show severe bruising. Fattened ankles have led — finally — to the admission that he does have some cardiovascular disease, whether just venous insufficiency or something more. There is the swinging gait that comes and goes. And there does seem to be a greater propensity to simply meander from topic to topic, on an ever-looser tether to linear thought.

He also just looks old: see pictures from the Oval Office meeting last Friday. Trump may never have looked worse.

The thing about cults is that the leader is absolutely invulnerable, the hold on people impermeable, right up until they are not. Once a leak springs, it is impossible to hold water back.

Yes, it is utterly infuriating that there has been so little pushback against troops in cities, threats to former allies, cutting Medicaid, the racism, the "cruelty as the point," and even the Epstein files, which will now never amount to anything, a "Democratic hoax," unless several victims come forward with direct knowledge of Trump's actions, and they don't seem to be in a hurry.

But it doesn't appear that any of the above can puncture Trump. Anyone in doubt needs to revisit the polls that refuse to move or simply spend a half-hour on X. Nothing has changed, except Trump's acceleration in his push to fascism.

In a post-truth America, where Trump can claim 70 percent approval rating with a straight face, dismiss a mediocre jobs report with a termination and declaration the numbers are fixed, make baseless claims to being the "hottest country in the world," claim crime as a national emergency and only himself as the savior, Trump's opponents are left searching for a leveling truth.

Enter the appearance of diminishing health.

Whatever is going on with his hands, it cannot be hidden. Whatever it is about his ankles, it cannot easily be cured. The doddering goes way back, but it means more now after all the attacks on Joe Biden.

It's a fact that Trump is getting older and appears to be getting worse. The best his followers can do is write it off to simply aging. Precisely. It leaves them uneasy, seeing Trump vulnerable for perhaps the first time — that being time itself.

And then there's the other wild card — the economy.

Inflation is just getting going. But in the same way it is impossible to hide a black spot on the back of a hand or slurred words going nowhere, no makeup can cover a bag of potato chips over $5, beef approaching $20 a pound for a decent cut and getting higher, along with other goods rising and rent to pay — all without any commensurate increase in pay.

Put the two undeniables together, Trump's health and his sickening economy, and there are two paths to sinking Trump to polling levels that will leave him and the GOP extremely vulnerable in 2026.

The country is largely unmoved by troops invading cities, masked men kidnapping working undocumented migrants (and some Americans) off the streets, stolen legislative seats, threats to the vote.

All of it screams fascism, but all of it has too many people simply yawning.

Anyone doubting that Trump acutely feels the vulnerability need only look at his responses to his major problems: hiding the hand, firing people over numbers, the constant and humiliating talk about the country being "hot.” And yet too many simply don't care. His supporters rely on him for entertainment and have their own lives to worry about. The marauding menace in Washington D.C. does little more than appear on screens as an owning of the libs, which is what he was hired for.

Nothing touches the man … except for indications that he's weaker, going downhill, unable to fight like he once did. That and chips, for $5.50.

It's the little things, things that don't have to make sense.

Trump won't get younger. Energy prices show no sign of going down. Chips and bread seem destined to jump. He promised to reverse such trends but he threw gas on the fire with tariffs. It isn't turning around.

Cults are invulnerable until they're not. The things that make them teeter don't have to make any sense. Watch these developments. They just might work, which might be enough.

Keep an eye out for black and blue hands, puffy eyes and swollen ankles. And prices on chips and sirloin.

Two small pins, sharp enough to pop the balloon. He knows it.

• Jason Miciak is a former Associate Editor at Occupy Democrats, an American attorney, author, and contributer to Politizoom. He can be contacted as JasonMiciak@gmail.com and is available for speaking engagements and consulting.