President-elect Donald Trump managed to cobble together a popular vote-winning coalition and he did so by making notable but modest gains with certain minority groups.
But the problem for him, wrote Ronald Brownstein for CNN, is that he won the election with a group of voters who broadly don't like him, and may not even agree with some of his core policies like mass deportations. They simply took a chance on him over economic discontent, he wrote — and it won't take much for that to come crumbling down.
This echoes the analysis of other political experts who think Trump will have a hard time holding his coalition together over the next four years.
"The long-term implications of Trump’s 2024 victory may turn on whether his performance in office solidifies or severs his connection to those conflicted supporters," wrote Brownstein. "If voters conclude that Trump has delivered on his core campaign promises of securing the border, increasing public safety and providing more economic stability ... the GOP has the opportunity to cement the formidable gains he registered this year."
However, "he faces the risk that at least some of his conflicted supporters will recoil as the elements of his personality and program that still concerned them on Election Day inevitably receive more attention."
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Already, there are some troubling signs, with Trump admitting he doesn't have the power to secure reduced grocery prices, and big business scrambling to try to call him off his plans for drastic new tariffs. This could spell trouble with the many who, according to exit polls, voted for him despite reservations.
Some Republican analysts agree that Trump could be headed for disaster if he doesn't realize how much distrust there is among his own voters, and overplays his hand.
"If Trump provides his most controversial nominees – such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services and Kash Patel as director of the FBI – a 'blank check' to pursue polarizing agendas, [GOP pollster White] Ayres said, 'we are going to be looking at Joe Biden level-job approval numbers before we turn around' for Trump," Brownstein wrote.