An election model that accurately predicted Democratic congressional gains last year is forecasting a big loss for President Donald Trump next year.
The election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicts Trump will fall well short of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win re-election, reported the Washington Examiner.
Bitecofer's model sees Trump losing the Electoral College by a 297-197 total after three key states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- flip back to the Democrats.
“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” Bitecofer said. “It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”
An energized Democratic base would most likely drown out a predicted increase in Republican voters in 2020, according to Bitecofer.
“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said. “The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything,” she added.
Bitecofer's model accurately predicted a 42-seat pickup for Democrats in the House, where they actually gained 40 seats.