'Done': DC insider thinks Trump's time is up and Ron DeSantis can't fill the void
Speaking to Republican Bill Kristol, Democratic strategist James Carville made it clear that Donald Trump's time has come and gone. But when it comes to the alternative, he thinks that the pundit class is overestimating Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
The two men joined for an hour-long video podcast where they discussed the 2022 midterm numbers and predicted what they think will unfold in 2024.
Among the things Carville pointed out is that the 2022 election actually saw low Democratic turnout. More Independents and Republicans turned out to vote in 2022, and they voted against Republicans.
"That was a lot of people saying, 'Well, I don't know what I am. I know I'm not a Democrat but I can't take this anymore,'" he said.
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The other "under-appreciated story," he said, comes from young voters who consistently vote at higher numbers each election. The share of the electorate is still lower than seniors but one generation is on the way out and the former is just beginning.
When it comes to 2024, Carville made it clear that he thinks the era of Donald Trump has come to an end.
"He is done," said Carville. "After all this obsession, of all these years of him occupying the front part of your mind, when you think about it, you just wonder how fast it’s going to be before he goes to jail. He’s not going to be the Republican nominee at all. We saw what the post-Trump Republican Party looks like. Just go back and look at that Speaker’s race. This is not like, 'Oh, thank God, Brent Scowcroft has walked back through the door and everything is going to be just like it was before.' No, it’s not. That’s not going to happen."
But DeSantis isn't exactly the one to step into the MAGA void.
"I'd say DeSantis would be slightly overestimated," Carville said flatly. "Underestimated, I'd say Brian Kemp. Now, Cruz, Cotton, Josh Hawley, maybe. DeSantis, he's out in front for a long time. And you know in politics, the longer that you’re hanging out there, people start to smell odors. And trust me, the Cruz, Hawley, Cotton tripartite pack, they don’t like DeSantis….and DeSantis, unlike a Bill Clinton or even a George W. Bush, he’s not a people person, and it’s well-documented. And that counts in politics, particularly if you’re going to be out there for a long time and you have a lot of party leaders and things that you need for these primaries. That’s a skill that he does not possess. You don’t have to be a hell of a fellow, a good old boy, to be effective at governance, but it does help. And he's no such thing."
By contrast, he said someone like Gov. Brian Kem (R-GA) has a documented history of standing for something. He managed to still court MAGA voters without compromising his belief that no one should be able to overthrow an election.
"I'm not saying that I think he's going to be a nominee," Carville continued, "but if you're asking for the 'underprice, I'm going in to win on an eight-to-one horse,' I'll take this one at eight-to-one. That's what it is. And he's very presentable. I don't know if that's a Southern word. I'm sure it's got some negative... Some college campus doesn't like it, but he makes a good impression."
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