Republicans may be about to lose a Western North Carolina seat they’ve held for more than a decade, The Washington Sun reported after speaking with over a dozen operatives from both parties.
In fact, noted reporter Alex Roarty on X, Republicans "are increasingly worried" North Carolina's 11th Congressional District "is already lost."
The 11th District is rural and conservative, part of the broader Appalachian region, and backed President Donald Trump by close to ten points in 2024. Operatives say the contest between Democrat Jamie Ager and Republican state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom has leaned Democratic for months, driven by what one local Democratic official called a “perfect storm.”
The problems started when Rep. Chuck Edwards ended his campaign amid allegations of harassing women on his staff, and Congress censured him in early September. Balkcom replaced him with under three months to introduce herself across a sprawling, mountainous district. Compounding the issue is Trump’s slumping approval and polls showing GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley far behind Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper.
“Based on early voting, it is a likely Democratic district,” a North Carolina Republican strategist said. Another strategist said the race was always “a long shot to hold onto this cycle.”
A Trump-controlled super PAC pulled its remaining ads Tuesday, though the National Republican Congressional Committee still plans to spend and Vice President JD Vance visited on Monday.
Democrats rate Ager among their strongest recruits, and one strategist put his odds at 90 percent. The NRCC calls Balkcom “phenomenal,” and the local GOP chair argues Democratic values “just doesn’t align” with the district. Ager’s campaign manager credits the candidate himself for the competitiveness.