New York Times columnist Tom Friedman is warning President-elect Donald Trump that he will likely not have an easy time when it comes to handling foreign policy in his second term.
In his latest column, Friedman warns Trump that unraveling the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and the Palestinians will not be a simple task and will require thought and strategic patience, which are traits Trump has never shown to have possessed.
Even more ominously, Friedman argues that things could get particularly dicey if longtime American allies conclude that the United States can no longer be trusted to come to their defense should they be attacked by a hostile nation.
"Japan, Poland, South Korea and Taiwan have hostile nuclear-armed neighbors and the technology and resources to build nuclear weapons themselves," writes Friedman. "They have seen what happened to Ukraine after it gave the nuclear weapons stationed there back to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union."
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If these countries decide they can no longer trust the United States' word, Friedman writes, it could undo one of the great international achievements of the post-Cold War era.
"If these countries lose faith in America’s promise — or that promise is withdrawn — and they develop their own nuclear weapons, that would be the end of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that has limited the spread of nuclear weapons since World War II," he writes. "That would erase the mother of all red lines."
Friedman closes his column by arguing that Trump's demagogic campaign rhetoric about being able to "easily" solve problems is about to run into hard realities.
"That’s the thing about the world — it is always so much more complicated than it sounds on the campaign trail, and today more than ever," he writes. "Or as the boxer Mike Tyson is said to have observed: 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.'"