In an op-ed published at CNN this Friday, Stephen Collinson writes that at this point under the current political climate, any other person's reelection chances would be doomed. But Donald Trump's "supernatural political aura" is making analysts hesitant to write him off just yet.
"Part of the uncertainty about Trump's prospects stems from the extraordinary nature of the times. The pandemic and the consequent economic disaster is unlikely to lead to predictable or necessarily logical consequences," Collinson writes. "Taking the mood of the country is even more complicated than normal since most Americans have been shut at home for weeks."
Ultimately, November's election is still competitive, especially due to the "unshakable bond" Trump has with his supporters, Collinson writes.
"...many Republican strategists say it's too soon to know how today's climate will shape November but are optimistic that enthusiasm for Trump among his voters, as well as calls to 'defund the police' on the left, could boost Trump," Collinson adds.
"And there is also no doubt -- as his impeached conduct in Ukraine showed -- the President will use every governmental power at his disposal -- and many that are not -- to tilt the election in his favor," he writes.
For those baffled by the Trump's choice to return to holding rallies even as a pandemic rages, the simple answer is that Trump needs a "morale-boosting, made-for-television show of support suggesting his political base is ready for battle in November" -- which may be stark signal that things could go either way on Election Day.
Read the full op-ed over at CNN.