President Donald Trump has spent years insisting that immigrant communities are “taking our jobs” and that expelling migrants via the mass deportation campaign he’s imposed on cities and towns across the country would swiftly result in an employment boom—but a new study reveals how aggressive raids by federal agents are resulting in a decline in employment for US-born citizens as well as their immigrant neighbors and coworkers.
A study authored by Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East and published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that while Trump’s sweeping raids and arrests of hundreds of thousands of people have pushed those who have been deported out of their jobs, and “immigrants who remain in the US are working less due to chilling effects,” those changes have done nothing to stimulate job growth among US citizens.
“We show no evidence of positive effects of the labor market outcomes of US-born workers,” wrote the authors. “Instead, ICE activity lowers the employment rate of US-born male workers, likely driven by a combination of complementarities in production and reductions in economic activity both reducing labor demand for US-born workers.”
In other words, said the Immigration Research Initiative (IRI) on Monday, “arresting and deporting immigrants results in a cascade of job loss,” affecting longtime employees who have work authorization but may stay home or leave the US out of fear of being deported, and US-born workers who struggle to keep businesses afloat after people who support their essential operations are detained and deported.
The study focused on men’s employment because about 90% of the people arrested by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other related agencies have been male.
For every 1,000 immigrant men arrested by ICE, the researchers found a 2.5% decline in employment for immigrant men without a college degree—those most at risk of being detained.
In areas where ICE activity has been particularly aggressive, a 0.54% decline in employment among US-born men in the area was found for every 1,000 ICE arrests.
“On US-born males’ employment rate, we find a negative and significant effect,” reads the study. “There is no evidence that employers increase wages to attract US-born workers.”
In response to the study, IRI created a model showing how employment would be affected in each state, should 1% of the most at-risk immigrant men be detained by ICE.
The group projected that such a dramatic statewide surge in enforcement in California, for example, would result in the direct expulsion of 15,600 immigrant men from their jobs. Another 615,000 immigrants would lose employment due to the chilling effect of the surge, and an estimated 466,000 US-born Californian men would also ultimately lose their jobs.
“Jobs where undocumented immigrants play a particularly big role are often complementary to jobs with higher numbers of US-born workers,” IRI explained. “For instance, in the construction industry, a high concentration of roofers and construction laborers are immigrants, and are often undocumented, while a high concentration of electricians and plumbers are US-born. Then when construction companies cannot find laborers, they build less, and hire fewer electricians.”
Texas, another state with a large immigrant workforce, would see an estimated 9,700 immigrant men swept up in a statewide surge that targeted 1% of the most at-risk people. An additional 237,800 immigrant men would also lose work, as well as 266,100 US-born men.
More than 128,000 American men would also be projected to lose employment as the result of immigration enforcement in Florida, as well as 18,600 in North Carolina; 16,800 in Pennsylvania; and 11,700 in Arizona.
IRI examined three states in Northern New England—Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont—as a whole, determining that mass arrests would take a total of 300 immigrants out of the workforce in the states, and would force job cuts for about 700 US citizens.
Mass deportation operations like Trump’s shrink both the workforce and the overall economy of an area, said IRI, because the people who are directly impacted—and those who fear ICE enforcement even if the government has no legal reason to deport them—“no longer shop at businesses, eat at restaurants, and pay taxes.”
“The decline in consumer spending likely explains the study’s finding that employment reductions are concentrated in ‘non-tradeable’ sectors, those driven by local spending (e.g. restaurants) rather than sectors oriented toward exports (e.g. manufacturing),” said IRI.
James Myall, senior economic policy analyst at Maine Center for Economic Policy, said in a statement Tuesday that the research “just proves how self-defeating the Trump administration’s immigration policies really are.”
“Not only are these arrests often cruel and unnecessary,” said Myall, “but they’re also hurting the very Americans President Trump promised to help.”