President Donald Trump's advisers are scrambling to cobble together a message as the Iran war and his erratic behavior threatens to consume Republican midterm campaigns.
The Trump administration's had crafted a midterm campaign strategy focused on tax refunds and economic gains, but those plans have been derailed by the Iran war, leaving Republicans facing potential losses of congressional control just seven months out from the November election, reported CNN.
“There’s direct correlation between presidential job approval and the party’s midterm performance. It’s not much more complicated than that,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres. “They’re frustrated and unhappy, and that’s been the case for some time, but it’s especially the case now.”
The White House had designated Tax Day as the unofficial launch of a strategy to highlight money returned to voters' pockets through administration economic policies, but that plan has largely collapsed following Trump's decision to launch military operations against Iran, which sent gas prices soaring and dominated political attention away from economic messaging.
“We need to get on offense. We need a message,” said one Trump adviser. “But right now, everything’s on hold until the war’s over.”
Multiple Republican officials privately acknowledge the party's standing has deteriorated significantly as the seven-week-old conflict has negated nearly all the economic progress Republicans planned to campaign on, including efforts to lower gas prices, ease inflation, and bolster financial security perceptions, according to interviews with more than a half-dozen GOP figures.
“They were counting on the tax refunds to power the economy and to have inflation under control, and on both fronts, they have some concerns,” said longtime GOP economic adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the right-leaning American Action Forum.
Trump, whose aides once pledged he would conduct nearly weekly campaign rallies for down-ballot candidates, has instead remained focused on foreign affairs in Washington. His Nevada rally Thursday marks his first swing-state appearance in over a month, and he arrives at historically low approval ratings amid voter frustration over both economic conditions and the conflict.
"At a certain point, there's going to have to be a message shift from the administration if the war doesn't look like it's something we can just get out of," said one GOP operative.
Republican leaders maintain they are not panicking, noting that worst-case scenarios involving losses of both chambers have not yet materialized, and they highlight their fundraising advantage and the potential to deploy Trump's substantial MAGA Inc. super PAC resources.
The GOP strategy has shifted to emphasizing contrasts with Democratic policies and warning of impeachment threats should Republicans lose congressional majorities, but officials acknowledge that attacking Democrats offers only a partial argument for the party controlling the White House and Congress.
Administration officials have also attempted to deflect blame for gas prices by publicly criticizing gas station operators for failing to lower prices when oil prices decline, yet messaging efforts have been hampered by Trump's tendency to diverge from prepared talking points.
“Naval blockades and the president’s divinity,” Holtz-Eakin said. “Not exactly what they had planned.”