Independent journalist Ken Klippenstein reports that a military source of his gives even odds that the U.S. will strike Iran after the midterms — but says any attack would be smaller than first planned.
Klippenstein writes that President Donald Trump’s plan for a decisive attack on Iran is now in doubt. Trump said last month the U.S. would not attack before the election, but Klippenstein says target sets were drafted and forces were being positioned, including a third aircraft carrier and two amphibious groups carrying about two dozen additional F-35s.
Gulf Arab allies, he says, told Washington they would help defend themselves but would not join an offensive.
He reports the plan frayed further when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost his majority, leaving planners unable to count on Israel until a new government forms.
In his account, Hegseth told the White House that a sea-based strike without Israel or Gulf bases remained workable. Gulf states objected to hitting energy infrastructure, and some military leaders warned that strikes on power production might violate the law of war. Hegseth responded by firing Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the top Joint Chiefs war planner, Klippenstein says.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) said last week, “Their plan is insane,” and predicted “devastating escalation.”
Klippenstein says Murphy was referring to classified briefings. Citing military sources, he writes that Trump has criticized the proposed attack as “uninspired, worthless, and weak” and wants Iran’s nuclear program as its focus. He says Trump hinted on Halloween at hitting one or two remaining nuclear sites.
Additionally, Iran has threatened retaliation beyond the Middle East, and people in Trump’s orbit have discussed responding at home with a national emergency, wrote Klippenstein.