It happens every four to eight years at a minimum; we see presidents gradually lose power as they sense a political world moving on, either looking toward the "next president" with candidates in either party, or just the calendar flipping away as it always does, sapping a president's power as surely as it saps all of us "getting older."
But with Donald Trump 2.0, that process is happening both early and lightning fast. The signs are everywhere.
Take heart. He is in major decline. Take heed, as we know what he does when desperate.
Ironically, it took little more than the made-to-order, regular old "GOP War in the Middle East," brought to you by every GOP president since George H.W. Bush, to bring about Trump's major decline, and not one of the innumerable scandals that would take down any other presidency, seemingly obstructing the Epstein prosecution, airplanes, all of them. It took an unwinnable war, started, at least in part, to get some of those Epstein headlines off our screens. Somewhat fitting.
As one might expect, the rest of the world, at least the "good countries," caught on first regarding Trump's waning ability and decided they will no longer acquiesce, nor "try to teach or woo Trump," as it looked like Emmanuel Macron used to do from time to time.
Trump beat up every non-corrupt nation within NATO and the G7 — most likely because he couldn't make personal corrupt deals with them, as he could with the world's most despised dictators. Look no further than to "Governor Trudeau" and Trump's approach toward Greenland.
Now Trump is furious that all those countries are turning away in the Middle East; not a single one will fire a gun on Trump's behalf. They are tired of him and are done listening, never mind acting.
They certainly do see Trump's horrifically conflicted deal with Saudi Arabia to nuclearise the Middle East, a deal so scandalous that he even somewhat tried to "modify" it by tweet. Trump asserted that "his" deal requires Saudi Arabia to openly recognize Israel, sort of, maybe. It took less than 24 hours for Saudi Arabia to say that written agreements override tweets and there's nothing in the deal about Israel.
You might normally think that disrespecting Trump on that level might get the leader blasted. But, given the blatant conflict of interest, Saudi Arabia joins that handpicked tiny "bag of nations" that near-enough own the American president. They have all the power over him, and he has no one to blame but himself.
Sit back and see what the world sees. The United States is friendlier with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Israel, even China, than Canada, the U.K., South Korea, you know – the "good countries." We are the bad guys.
So his power around the globe saps.
Now sit back and see what this country sees. The MAGAs see Benjamin Netanyahu's Israel calling the shots for Trump. He assures the world it's not true, but when you're spending your time denying appearances, you're losing. Not for nothing, but given the sudden horrific anti-Semitism that has arisen within the GOP, it's an even bigger red-on-red hammer than a Middle East war would otherwise be. Israel gets everything they want? Some MAGAs see that as worse than giving Saudi Arabia nuclear material.
We have been in this war for six months, a blink of an eye in international relations, a lifetime for Trump, who is not used to having to focus on any one thing and work hard. And no matter how intensely he tries, he just can't tweet this damn thing over. Every single flip of that calendar brings that reality home, and the impact is devastating.
No one knows it more than the man who has spent a lifetime promoting his "brand" over his substance. Americans have noticed.
It has become both cliché and sport for the cool kidz on the Left to toss aside and laugh at any media analysis noting Trump's power is waning. Most of these people once expected an old-school scandal, one that would happen overnight and recognize that simply won't happen this time. Good. Focus instead on the drip, drop, in poll after poll, supporters pulling away, one or two percentages at a time. After a while, and especially during a war, especially right before a midterm election, those points add up, and no one knows it better than a GOP Congress.
After all, when Republicans have little better to do than bring out Dr. Anthony Fauci for a good lashing, going back to the "Trump's Greatest Hits" album, rather than addressing the war or the cost of living, the drips continue, from the middle to the right.
The Senate may or may not confirm Todd Blanche, Trump's handpicked loyalist, as Attorney General. Ironically, the Senators that are leaving, whether by choice or by vote, who Trump never endorsed, are now the ones standing in the way. (You can put Mitch McConnell down as a "No," since he's not there to record a "Yes.") Similar to the war, some GOP senators see that slush fund and get-out-of-jail-free card, and just can't stomach it anymore. Same thing with the "Save Act," with Republicans choosing to "save" the filibuster, almost certainly knowing what's coming.
For a guy who has actively boasted about being the most powerful man in the world and that, as president, he can "do anything," this is devastating. It's almost like his tweets have lost their magic powers.
If you need something concrete upon which to wrap your hands as you grasp the waning power, note that Wall Street once made a game out of playing to his announcements — usually by tweet — about the next move in the Iranian war; they're largely on to him and don't really trade on those announcements anymore. Go ahead and laugh; the irony is just stunning, but Trump has been so crazed and all over the place, trying to win this war by tweet, the banks are ignoring him right as he's trying to monetize access to his deepest thoughts, giving some brokerage firms a "first shot," but only for money up front.
Some firms will pay it — it's an easy way to bribe him, which is about the only sure way to move stuff through the U.S. government these days, but not many. They no longer believe his statements have all that much power. He lies. He huffs and puffs. In the end, everyone gets TACOs, but not the good kind.
Look back at the calendar because it's all right there.
It is the summer before the midterms, a summer of discontent on so many levels. Other than the appearance of White Nationalists on the Mall supporting Trump, we Americans have largely behaved ourselves. No midnight protests; Portland isn't burning down. Only the polls, showing drips and drops. Republicans keep eyeing those midterms, terrified of losing, more terrified about Trump's possible response.
Some presidents, especially pathological narcissists, overcompensate in such an environment. Obviously, that's the danger here. Most likely, Trump will — for now — take it out on Iran, provided we have enough missiles left. But the same guy capable of killing thousands of Iranians to save himself from horrible headlines regarding Epstein is more than capable of turning all his weapons on a real "enemy," Americans that might unseat him, might expose him, the dangerous enemy. Us.
We will see something, if not this summer, certainly this fall, as Trump eyes congressional hearings and investigations, and votes to impeach him; the pattern is that Trump will start a battle, if not a war, here, fueled by personal fury. There is, however, some hope in the fact that Trump doesn't move the pieces around the board as easily as he used to. It's probably best to fear that reality as well; it makes him more desperate.
He brought this desperation on himself. It took a war somewhere else to avoid a war about those damned Epstein files — something worries him about those. Puzzling. He certainly needs Blanche overseeing the whole thing. Remarkably, even with a Republican majority, Kalshi only puts Blanche's odds of getting in at basically 50%, in large part because of senators that Trump has primaried out, now coming back at him.
If the Senate blocks Blanche, look out because Trump needs Blanche controlling the investigators, the federal police. If and when Blanche's nomination is turned away, the ultimate sign that Trump is losing it, his outer war will turn in, and he knows that mean tweets no longer do it.
Meanwhile, out in "America," meaning everywhere other than the White House, American voters are actually somewhat unified in our demands — shocking. Americans of absolutely every color want their shot at the "Epstein class," the billionaires, Bezos, Musk, Zuckerberg, hated even more than Trump, and voters want it so badly, lashing out against datacenters, wars, the corruption; if Trump gets hurt in the process, so be it — according to many Republicans, who also "drip away," poll by poll.
He likes to wear hats and joke about "Trump 2028." Voters joke back, "Obama, 2028." Maybe third-term talk would work if he were 60; the Constitution never stopped him before. But he is not 60 and, just like the rest of us, he gets older with every flip of the calendar. Unlike the rest of us, Trump has, like many second-term presidents, overstayed his welcome, putting up prize fights on our White House lawn, hosting parties no one attends, making sick jokes about any opponent or media figure, and making those side deals for cold cash. He is doing it in front of everyone, from a new plane to a new A.G.; every step toward increased corruption is another step down from his legitimacy and power.
Do not read this to say that he doesn't still have immense power that he will use. He absolutely does, so long as he occupies that office; that's the danger. What does Trump do when desperate? He goes to war.
But he's not winning wars abroad, and that should be a major indicator here. He'll fight, but it won't look as powerful in practice as it does extreme on the tweet. Just be on the lookout: every corrupt deal, every nap during a meeting, every flip of the calendar — he is losing it; he is losing the power and the clear major MAGA support he had just a year ago, the type of support needed to get him through to the other side.
It is scary. But it's well beyond debate. He sure acts like a guy whose brand drips with every flip. Maybe this summer represents everyone holding their collective breath, watching and waiting. Meanwhile, the calendar never stops.
Jason Miciak is a Rawstory Columnist, former editor of Occupy Democrats, author, political consultant, attorney, and single parent girldad. Please follow on Bluesky, and he can be reached at jasonmiciak@gmail.com.