A landmark study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research has found that President Donald Trump’s mass deportation operations are actually costing Americans jobs, contrary to the White House’s frequent claims that its anti-immigration agenda is helping US workers.
The NBER study, which was published last month and reported on by The New York Times Tuesday, claims to provide “the first national, causal empirical evidence on the labor market impacts of immigration enforcement in the second Trump administration,” and finds that mass deportations have not resulted in more job offers for native-born Americans.
In fact, the study identifies “a negative and significant impact on employment of US-born male workers with at most a high-school education” who are working in industries that employ the most undocumented immigrants, including construction, agriculture, and manufacturing.
The study finds that instead of hiring more US-born workers in the absence of available undocumented workers—who may have been deported, left the country to avoid deportation, or have stayed home out of fear of immigration raids—employers are more likely to simply slow down economic activity altogether, which has a cascading impact on related industries.
“We see no evidence that employers increase wages to attract US-born workers to fill these jobs in the face of immigration enforcement,” the researchers explain. “Instead, our results are consistent with employers reducing labor demand overall, including for jobs more often taken by US-born workers.”
The NBER researchers also say that undocumented workers are more often than not complements to US workers, as they “are more likely than US-born individuals to work in jobs that are less desirable due to lower pay, on the job hazards, and irregular schedules.”
University of Colorado, Boulder economist Chloe East, who co-authored the NBER study, told the New York Times on Tuesday that construction firms “view it as easier to reduce production, reduce the construction of new homes and new buildings in general, rather than try to increase wages for US-born workers.”
East said that this would likely hurt efforts to build more housing in the US, telling the Times that “I assume we’re going to see... a long-term shock to the construction sector” due to Trump’s mass deportations.
Anirban Basu, chief economist at the Associated Builders and Contractors national trade organization, told the Times that he wasn’t surprised by the finding that aggressive immigration raids shut down projects rather than open up new work for native-born Americans.
“Given high interest rates, given rising material prices and fewer people available to provide roofing, tiling, carpeting, and other flooring services,” Basu said, “it renders fewer projects financially viable.”
NPER’s study echoes an analysis released last month by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), which found that unemployment for US-born workers has increased since the start of Trump’s second term, as the federal government has carried out its draconian deportation operations.
“Claims that mass deportations have helped US-born workers are simply inconsistent with the data,” EPI wrote. “This is no surprise, given that economic research has repeatedly shown that increased immigration enforcement harms everyone in the labor market, including US-born workers.”