Trump may shift midterms from a referendum on Biden to one on him — and torpedo the GOP: analysis

Donald Trump is complicating GOP efforts to win back Congress as Democrats are increasing their odds of holding both the House and Senate.

"The man in charge of the House GOP’s campaign strategy has been doling out advice to Republican candidates and incumbents in key battleground races as they prepare for the general election: Don’t be distracted by Donald Trump on the campaign trail, and instead focus on the issues Republicans believe will be most salient to voters in the midterms," CNN's Melanie Zanona reported Friday. "The guidance from Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, relayed by three GOP sources familiar with the internal conversations, reflects a tacit acknowledgment among Republican leaders that the former president could knock the GOP’s midterm messaging off course as they seek to recapture the House majority this fall."

Many of the same candidates embraced Trump in the midterms as he backed election-denying GOP hopefuls.

"A spokesman for Emmer said the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman has indeed counseled candidates to focus on the issues that matter to voters, like inflation, crime and the border, but emphasized that Trump is not on the ballot this fall and therefore has not been a focus during their strategy discussions," CNN reported. "But Emmer’s recommendation may be increasingly tough to follow, especially if Trump announces a presidential run before the midterms – something Republican leaders, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, are desperate to avoid. GOP leaders want the midterms to be a referendum on President Joe Biden and the Democrats, not Trump, even though the former president relishes in being the topic of conversation."

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Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is openly warning that the GOP may not win the Senate in 2022.

For analysis, CNN's Alisyn Camerota interviewed former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL).

"He joins us now, he's the host of the White Flag podcast. Joe, great to see you."

"So as we know, Sen. Mitch McConnell chooses his words very carefully," Camerota noted. "When he talks about the lack of or basically — let me be clear, when he says that the GOP may not win the Senate because of the candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome, what's he saying in plain English?"

"He's saying that the Republicans are in real trouble, Alisyn, in taking back control of the Senate," Walsh replied.

"I mean, people like J.D. Vance in Ohio is an election denier," Walsh explained. "Blake Masters in Arizona is an election denier, Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, an election denier. Republicans are nominating, they've nominated election deniers all over the country. These folks shouldn't do well in a general election."

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