Surprise: Trump did not get polling boost after shooting

Following the failed assassination attempt on Saturday, former President Donald Trump did not see a polling boost, in the first presidential survey taken since the event.

In the national Morning Consult poll of 2,045 registered voters, taken Monday, Trump leads President Joe Biden 46 percent to 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

In fact, Trump's lead has narrowed slightly since an earlier poll taken July 12-14, where Trump was leading 44 to 42 percent. However, the change is within the poll's margin of error.

The findings also reveal that Trump's lead has narrowed slightly since the firm's previous survey, conducted between July 12 and 14, which put Trump two percentage points ahead on 44 percent to Biden's 42 percent.

At the state level, polling in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia will be crucial in ultimately determining the electoral college math — and Trump currently has leads in all four states. Trump's strength with white working class voters could buoy his numbers in pivotal Rust Belt states, while Biden hopes to run up advantages with suburban voters.

Trump's VP pick, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), could also help him in Midwestern states. The poll was taken before Trump named his VP choice.

Polling reliability faced harsh scrutiny after the 2016 and 2020 elections when some state polls significantly missed the final results. Pollsters have adjusted methodologies, but skepticism persists about turnout modeling and the challenges of accurately capturing the views of key voter blocs like Latino and Black voters. Ultimately, quality polling will be vital to tracking this fluid and polarized 2024 campaign as both sides jockey for an edge.