'Perilous path': GOP insider says Mike Johnson faces 'political dilemma verging on a trap'

Republican congressional leaders are working to pass "one big, beautiful bill" sought by president Donald Trump to enact most of his legislative agenda, but a former top congressional aide warned they may be falling into a trap.

The final details are still being negotiated, but the core of the bill is extending the 2017 tax law, which the administration believes will calm the markets and boost the economy, but former GOP congressional staffer Brendan Buck published an op-ed in the New York Times warning that legislation might not be enough to reassure Americans rattled by Trump's economic moves.

"The Republican congressional leaders, Senator John Thune and Mr. Johnson, should not talk themselves into believing that this bill will deliver Republicans from the effects of Mr. Trump’s tariffs," Buck wrote. "The leaders face converging political problems right now: All the party’s energy is directed toward passing this one bill, for which voters may not reward them, and the effort is likely keeping them from putting more pressure on Mr. Trump to stop the tariffs."

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Buck cautioned that the tax bill, which could include cuts to Medicaid and spending increases for immigration enforcement, probably won't be enough to blunt the damage from Trump's tariffs, and he said most Americans won't even feel a reduction to their tax rates.

"The reality is it’s no cut at all for most people," he said. "The rates they are preserving have been in place for more than seven years now."

Buck helped former House speaker Paul Ryan pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, which the former GOP aide believes contributed to the robust economy the Covid-19 pandemic wiped out, and he said it was essential to keep those rates in place by extending the cuts in the tax bill Johnson and Thune are working on.

"The political problem is there is little new here for voters," Buck wrote. "Despite Mr. Trump’s blitz of sweeping executive actions, there is a peculiar smallness to his legislative program. Congress has not been asked to enact a DOGE-like reorganization of the federal government or a new work force development initiative to prepare us for the reshoring of American manufacturing. The president has proposed a handful of new tax breaks, like on tips, overtime pay and for those on Social Security. But those policies are likely to be narrow."

Every president since Bill Clinton, except George W. Bush after 9/11, lost their party's congressional majority in the first midterm of their presidency, and Buck warned Republicans almost certainly would unless they can convince voters they're creating a strong economy – which they probably cannot do unless they pressure the president to back down on his trade war.

"Here, Mr. Thune and Mr. Johnson face a political dilemma, verging on a trap," Buck warned. "They have shied away from criticizing Mr. Trump’s trade policy, likely because they will require his political muscle to get the tax extension through Congress. But this has allowed the president to continue down a destructive path for the economy and for their majorities in Congress. The economy is not the only thing that matters in politics, but it’s the first thing that matters. Without a stable economic footing to run on, House members in battleground districts face a perilous path to re-election."

"Passing a bill to prevent tax rates from going up is a necessary action," the GOP insider added. "But congressional leaders should not kid themselves. Unless they — or the markets — can convince the president to back down on tariffs, this 'one big beautiful bill' may feel more like thin gruel to voters."