The New Republic’s Greg Sargent argued in an analysis published Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s Texas rallies suggest his team doesn’t believe he can win back independents and moderates, even though the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is a toss-up.
In Sargent’s account, Trump spoke mainly to his own voters at the rallies, with insults and boasts about renaming geography. In Corpus Christi, he said oil and gas prices are dropping and that the Iran war is bringing in an “absolute fortune,” claims the column says don’t hold up. He also joked about calling the Strait of Hormuz the “Trump Strait” and called Talarico a “freako.”
Sargent pointed to a New York Times poll from earlier this month with Talarico leading Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent. Talarico is ahead among independents (60 percent to 37 percent), Latinos (62 percent to 30 percent) and young voters (66 percent to 22 percent). Trump’s approval is deeply negative with all three: 29 percent to 67 percent among independents, 26 percent to 69 percent among Latinos and 12 percent to 85 percent among young voters, with solid majorities strongly disapproving.
A Fox News-commissioned poll showing a dead heat finds 47 percent of non-MAGA Republicans disapprove of Trump, and Talarico winning 28 percent of them.
Senior Democrats told Sargent the attacks are meant to energize the MAGA base and push disillusioned Republicans to vote. Sargent says nothing in Trump’s remarks gives those voters a reason to think conditions are improving.
He allows that it could still work in a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2024, if MAGA turnout surges and tech tycoon Elon Musk’s ads sway enough non-MAGA Republicans.
Otherwise, he writes, the rallies look like “a pure vanity project.”