Data guru startled as 'ballooning' numbers show GOP 'on track to lose'

Republicans are on the wrong track for holding onto their congressional majorities, according to a new data analysis.

CNN's Harry Enten crunched the numbers on a series of new polling that found Americans are concerned about the direction the country is headed, and the data analyst said they seem to be in the mood for a change in leadership heading into next year's midterm elections.

"I like going traveling, we all do," Enten said. "Look, you knowwhat it was, the NBC News pollcame out this weekend, and I sawthis wrong track number, and itjust kind of jumped out to mebecause it was 66 percent, and one ofthe things I always like to lookat is, you know, Donald Trumphistorically has done betterthan his polling suggested. Butthese right track-wrong tracknumbers have generally trackedwith what actually the countryis feeling. We see 66 percent there, more than three in five Americans whosay the country is on the wrongtrack. Ipsos, 61 percent, MU, Marquette University Law School, 64 percent,Gallup, 74 percent of Americans say theyare dissatisfied with the stateof the nation."

"You see it onyour screen right there, and allof these numbers, all of thesenumbers that I could find werethe highest percentage who saidthat the country was on thewrong track since Donald Trumptook office," Enten added. "It's not just Trump's poll numbers, it'sdisapproval that's going higherand higher and higher. It's thewrong track numbers that aregoing higher and higher, as well."

That's quite a turnaround from the start of Trump's second term, Enten said.

"Yeah, it's a huge change – it's a huge change," he said. "Think thatthe country is on the wrongtrack or the right track, you goback to April, May – look, theclear majority of Americansthought that the country was onthe wrong track, at 58 percent, but yousee 38 percent, a 20-point differencehere. Look at that: What we'veseen is a ballooning of this, aballooning. Now you take theaverage of the polls, right, andnow we're talking well north onaverage."

"Two and three Americans say thatthe country is on the wrongtrack now," Enten added. "Less than three in 10 Americans say that the countryis on the right track, and whenwe look at this back in thegoing into the 2024 election,right, the election in which the Democratic Party was pushed outof power, this number looks awhole heck of a lot. This righttrack number looks a whole heckof a lot what it looked likegoing into 2024 election. This66 percent looks a whole heck of a lotlike that number going into the2024 election."

That's an ominous sign for Republicans heading into next year's election, he said.

"President's party didn't lose House seats, midterms since 1978, percentagesaid the country was on thewrong track, 46 percent in 2002, 38 percent in1998," Enten said. "The 66 percent now, the 66 percent, a lotof numbers on the screen rightnow who say the country is onthe wrong track? This doesn'tlook anything like thosemidterms where the president'sparty didn't lose. The Republican Party is on track tolose the House of Representatives if the wrongtrack numbers look anything likethey do right now."

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