Danger signs for Virginia GOP in former 'Republican bastion': analysis

Ahead of the state elections this year, Virginia Republicans are already facing ominous problems in a key area that was once considered a "Republican bastion," according to a State Navigate analysis published on Monday.

Specifically, the analysis focused on House District 57, a Republican-held seat in western Henrico County — a place that has been trending more and more Democratic over time.

"Once home to dominant Republican politicians like Congressmen Eric Cantor and Dave Brat, State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, and Delegates John 'Jack' Reid (father of the 2025 Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, John Reid), John O’Bannon, Manoli Loupassi, Jimmie Massie, and more, this is now 'Spanbergerland,'" said the report, referencing Democratic gubernatorial nominee and former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger. "These are now liberal suburbs represented by Democrats on most levels of government. Aside from Congressman Rob Wittman, there remains one Republican left in western Henrico: Delegate David Owen."

Owen won a closely-watched 2023 contest that saw Democrats retake the legislature. While Democrats had a decent night in general, that district was a sore spot because of the collapse of a promising candidate, Susanna Gibson, when the Washington Post published a story reporting that she had performed lewd acts online with her husband for tips.

"Due to the story, her resources were reallocated to other competitive races and she was left to her own devices, unable to overcome bad press that spread nationwide," the story said. "The power of an old fashioned (albeit legal) sex scandal in the waning months of an election, however, reigned supreme, and David Owen won by the skin of his teeth."

This is one of the districts to watch as Democrats hope for the first signs of a blue wave this fall, with Spanberger challenging struggling Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the gubernatorial race.

"As long as things remain on course for Democrats in the electoral environment and should May Nivar continue to run a strong campaign that remains scandal-free, this seat should be an easy pickup for Democrats," the analysis concluded. :Spanberger will likely outrun Kamala Harris’s 2024 performance in the district, perhaps even doubling the failed presidential candidate’s margin in the 57th. Unless Owen gets a lucky break like he did in 2023, May will likely be declared the winner of the 57th once the first few precincts start reporting their vote totals on Election Night."