Opinion
The problem of ignorance and how we can fight it: A neuroscientist explains
The great paradox of modern times is that we have access to more information than ever — but ignorance seems to be growing.
People in the United States and around the world believe more bogus theories now than they did 10 years ago. Comment sections on social media reveal that most people are just as gullible as ever, and in some ways, even more likely to believe outlandish things. This ignorance has consequences of global importance, because an increase in ignorance will lead to ignorant people getting elected to positions of power. I don’t think I need to give an example here because you’re probably already thinking it.
Ignorance spreads like a virus if we don’t actively combat it. But we can’t attack the problem if we don’t fully understand it. Therefore, let’s learn about what ignorance is from a scientific and philosophical perspective, then plot a course for inoculating against it.
First, we should understand that we’re all ignorant — to some degree. You could say that ignorance is a fact of life. To understand why, we have to understand the nature of life. For an organism to exist in the world, it has to accomplish certain survival goals. For example, it must be able to find food and avoid threats in a chaotic and often unpredictable world. These tasks require that the organism have a map or model of its environment.
Because humans live in a complex physical and social world, we have very sophisticated mental models of the world. But as incredible as those maps of the world are, they are still abstract, simplified representations of a much more complicated reality. And they really have to be — a map that is as complicated as the thing it is mapping wouldn’t be very useful because it would contain more information than we could process. Scientists and artificial intelligence researchers are very aware of this point. They often remark that “the map is not the territory,” and there is a common saying that “all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
This idea has been summarized as the “Principle of Incomplete Knowledge,” and it says that because our mental model of the world always contains some uncertainty or error, we all have a certain amount of ignorance.
In this context, ignorance is the difference between our model of reality and how reality really is. To live in an optimal way — that is, to make the best decisions and increase your chances of success — we should always be trying to reduce the error in our model of the world. We do this by “updating our model” when evidence tells us that reality is different than we thought it was. According to an influential new neuroscience theory called “the Bayesian Brain Hypothesis,” our ability to update the model and reduce our ignorance is central to intelligence.
Your model of the world consists of all your beliefs about reality. Minimizing your model’s ignorance means changing your beliefs when evidence and logic suggests they are inaccurate.
Let’s consider an idealized example. Imagine someone who believes the Earth is flat blasts off into space in a rocket. The person will see with their own eyes that the Earth is round. If they come back down to Earth, continuing to believe that it is flat, they have not updated their model in light of new evidence. This is an extreme example, but most if not all of us hold some beliefs that are similarly, if less dramatically, inaccurate. In some cases, we still hold these beliefs even when they are contradicted by the evidence.
It is far from easy to determine which of your beliefs are in line with the evidence offered by reality. If you believe in something, it is usually because you’ve found something about that argument to be convincing (though that is not always the case, because we may also believe in unconvincing things that we find comforting).
This is why it is important that we test our beliefs. For example, let’s say you’re into New Age medicine. You’ve been told that a certain crystal has healing powers. Now, there is no good scientific reason to believe that this is true. But because even our best scientific theories will contain some amount of error, the best way to determine if there’s any validity to a belief is to test it. One could use the crystals only half of the time when they get sick, and they can keep a record of the recovery time (while trying to keep other variables, such as the kind of illness itself, constant). To increase the sample size of the study, that person could give the crystals to their friends and family who would also like to try the experiment. If 10 people try the healing method for one year and there’s no clear indication that there’s any difference between healing times associated with the crystal versus without, then one can suspect that the crystal is ineffective and won’t cure illness.
Society would almost certainly improve if everyone questioned and tested their own beliefs. In practice, this is not so easy. In the above example, there is the problem of the famous placebo effect, so the crystal might actually be effective in healing not because of any intrinsic property, but because of the user’s positive thoughts. For this reason, the best strategy for people defending against ignorance is becoming scientifically literate. Consult the peer-reviewed literature that exists on a given topic when something is in question, because empirical studies test theories in a properly controlled way and with a sufficient sample size (ideally). However, I should repeat that this does not mean we shouldn’t be skeptical of our current scientific theories and existing empirical evidence. Scientific theories, by design, aren’t immutable. They are pathways to knowledge, not final destinations. Our theories are always getting updates because they contain some degree of error, and it is important to be aware of that. But we should have the appropriate amount of skepticism, given all the evidence we have so far.
There’s a practical approach to reducing our ignorance and optimizing our world model’s accuracy. That takes us back to Bayesian reasoning, named for the 18th century statistician and philosopher Thomas Bayes. Bayesian reasoning is a procedure for updating your theory, model, or belief-system in the face of new evidence. In scientific practice, it involves a relatively complex mathematical formula. But you don’t need to know any math to use informal Bayesian reasoning in everyday life — as philosopher Julia Galef explains in this short and accessible video.
Here’s what you do:
1.) Consider all possible explanations for something, rather than relying purely on “gut instinct.”
2.) Rank and rate each theory according to how likely it is to be true based on all the known facts.
3.) Test each theory by using it to make future predictions.
4,) Update how you ranked and rated the likelihood of each being true to reflect what you learned from the testing phase.
Some of our most respected scientists, including cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker and theoretical physicist Sean Carroll, have identified Bayesian reasoning as a powerful tool in the war against irrationality. In particular, it can combat the kind of misinformation and bogus conspiracy theories that so frequently permeate our politics. At the same time, Bayesian reasoning can reveal real conspiracies, should they exist, by demonstrating that a particular theory about a conspiracy explains the facts better than the alternatives. What Bayesian reasoning provides is a universal approach to determining truth. Beliefs should not be believed blindly; they should be tested continually.
If we can make some simplified form of Bayesian reasoning common practice for everyone, it would reduce the collective ignorance of society practically overnight. People who believe irrational things would begin to shed their beliefs that are contradicted by reality and testing. Scientists and medical professionals would likewise not overstate their certainty, which they tend to do (studies show that physicians fail to use Bayesian reasoning as much as average people do).
So, the question is, if this form of logic is our weapon against irrationality and ignorance, how do we make it go mainstream? For one, logical reasoning and evidence-based thinking should be a part of standard education curriculums. New methods of education, such as gaming and virtual reality, could also provide ways to make Bayesian reasoning stick.
Being ignorant about a particular topic isn’t shameful. None of us know everything — that’s an impossible task. Ignorance does not come from a lack of education, but an unwillingness to seek education. Ignorance is a consequence of refusing to change your beliefs when reality is constantly contradicting them. If we want to increase our chances of success in life, and minimize our ignorance, then we must be willing to challenge our own viewpoints and update our models of reality in light of new evidence.
Bobby Azarian is a cognitive neuroscientist and the author of the new book The Romance of Reality: How the Universe Organizes Itself to Create Life, Consciousness, and Cosmic Complexity. He is also a blogger for Psychology Today and the creator of the Substack Road to Omega. Follow him @BobbyAzarian.
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Clueless Supreme Court hacks have killed everything Juneteenth stands for
The Supreme Court's recent unanimous ruling in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services hasn’t got nearly the attention it deserves.
On the surface, the ruling seems innocent enough. The Court merely decided that white and straight employees who allege they’ve been discriminated against don't need to meet a higher standard of proof than do Black or LGBTQ+ employees who sue for discrimination under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act.
(Prior to this ruling, some courts had required that white or straight employees demonstrate not only that they were discriminated against but they also worked in a discriminatory environment.)
The Court’s decision in Ames appears a logical extension of the 2023 ruling by its six conservative justices ending race-conscious admission programs at colleges and universities across the country.
But seen against Trump’s bigoted agenda and the widening discrepancies between the political power of Black or LGBTQ+ people relative to the power of white straight people, the Ames case should trouble everyone.
Trump and his lackeys have argued that discrimination against white and straight Americans occurs under the cover of diversity, equity and inclusion. And Trump has gone to great lengths to undo what it calls “illegal D.E.I.” — ousting diversity officials from federal agencies and removing D.E.I. references from government websites.
The Ames ruling could be the death knell for D.E.I. because it makes it easier for white and straight people to argue that a D.E.I. policy at the workplace caused an employer to discriminate against them.
The Supreme Court I got to know in the 1970s when I worked in the Solicitor General’s office understood its responsibility to balance the scales of justice in favor of the powerless — including Black people, women, and gay people.
That Court understood that as majoritarian institutions, Congress and the executive branch could not always be counted on to reflect the needs of people with far less political power than straight white men.
Hence, they assumed that one of the Court’s essential roles in our system of self government — indeed, the core of its moral authority — was to give extra weight to the challenges or aspirations of such minorities.
Even Nixon’s appointees—Harry Blackmun, Lewis Powell, and Warren Burger—seemed to understand this important counter-balancing role. Blackmun wrote the Court’s decision in Roe v. Wade, and Powell and Burger joined him (as did four Democratic appointees to the Court—William O. Douglas, Thurgood Marshall, William Brennan, and Potter Stewart).
Douglas, Marshall, and Blackmun were the intellectual leaders of that Supreme Court. Their opinions gave the Court its moral heft. They drew not only from the Constitution as written but also from their understanding of how the nation had evolved, and of the distribution of power.
Like an earlier Supreme Court that unanimously decided in Brown vs. Board of Education of Topeka that separate schooling for Black and white children was inherently unequal and therefore unconstitutional, the Supreme Court I argued before understood that America must rely on the Court to protect the rights of the voiceless and the powerless.
Today’s Supreme Court majority doesn’t have a clue about the court’s moral authority or its essential role in counter-balancing a distribution of power disadvantaging Black or LGBTQ+ people.
The Republican appointees to today’s Supreme Court are political hacks intent on entrenching the power of the already powerful.
Five were nominated by presidents who lost the popular vote; three were nominated by a president who instigated a coup against the United States and were confirmed because a rogue Republican Party mounted scorched-earth campaigns to put them on the Court.
The current Supreme Court has no interest in counter-balancing the majoritarian tendencies of Congress and the President. To the contrary, as demonstrated by the Ames decision, today’s Court is at best the third majoritarian branch of government.
On Juneteenth — the day we commemorate the end of slavery in the United States — it is well to ponder that there is no longer any branch of government dedicated to protecting the life chances of those with less political power due to their race, ethnicity, gender, sexual preference, or sexual orientation.
This is deeply unfortunate.
Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com
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Trump is on the ropes — this is how to knock him out
Maybe I’ve had this all wrong, my friends …
Maybe if, instead of wondering if our country will survive the next three-plus years, this question should be asked instead: Will the grotesque and failing Donald Trump survive that long?
Here’s where I dutifully remind everybody, after first reminding myself, that it has been only 147 days since this repellent, racist degenerate placed his right hand in the vicinity of a Bible and was sworn in a second time, to finish off what he started in 2017.
147 DAYS.
My God, entire decades have felt shorter.
Trump has surrounded himself with a cabinet that is right out of the bowels of Rupert Murdoch after an all-you-can-eat offering of chicken-salmonella on the barbie.
Hegseth, Noem, Kennedy, Loeffler, Bondi, McMahon, Gabbard, Duffy …
Every single one of these clowns got their jobs, not because of any stellar qualifications or abiding allegiance to our country, but because of their appalling capacity to bow over and over again to their huffing and puffing ringmaster.
So while they have been bringing back measles, making air travel a literal death-defying high-flying act, texting top-secret information to our enemies, and defending the indefensible in court, their dear leader has been shuffling his fat little feet and backing himself into a corner.
He thought it would be easier to knock Americans into submission, and after watching us collectively punch ourselves in the face for the second time in eight years in November, I almost can’t blame him. It takes a lot of unmitigated gall to vote for a racist, America-attacking convicted felon who hasn’t told the truth since his parents locked him in a military school because they couldn’t stand the sight of him.
No country has done more truly wonderful things — “we must take that beach no matter what!” — and truly horrible things — “there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq” — than the United States of America.
Except, having successfully cornered himself, the ignorant fascist is finding out in record time that his options are actually limited.
I’ve repeatedly warned since the first days of this mess of a presidency that it was only a matter of time before Trump used our military for him and against us, but I have to admit I am surprised how quickly he played this toxic card.
Trump was dealt a precarious hand by an unbalanced American electorate that needed to be finessed, but decided to play it like he held a mandate. He got sloppy because we are finding out he’s old and tired, and wants nothing to do with the job.
He knows he’s losing, and now must publicly carry out his four-year sentence.
- He’s losing in the court of public opinion where his negative approvals have already shattered records.
- He’s losing on the economy, which was somehow a strong point for him. (And this historic misnomer really needs to be addressed because Republican administrations are provably horrible for the economy, yet grade out better than Democrats who restore them.)
- He’s losing on immigration, because most Americans don’t like seeing families senselessly ripped apart like some 1930s Nazi Germany redo.
- He’s losing independent voters in droves because there is finally an understanding that his “Big Beautiful Bill” will pad billionaires’ pockets while hurting millions in his cult, who might snap out of their trance when they can no longer afford the things that cure what ails them.
- He’s losing everywhere, because damn if he isn’t being absolutely annihilated and mocked by anybody who isn’t a full-throated fascist on the world stage.
He harrumphed out of the G7 meetings because he can no longer even pretend to be a valuable contributor. He needs his naps, and a regular diaper change.
He is using a putty knife these days to cake on the brownish-orange mud to his hideous gray-white face in an effort to become a more distinctive person of color.
There’s a real irony there that I’ll point out with both index fingers, while letting my middle ones signal my absolute contempt for this vulgar, America-attacking loser.
Following one of the most consequential weeks in America history, which saw Trump host a MAGA rally on a U.S. Army base and grift off our soldiers; No Kings rallies that were attended by millions of Americans in literally every corner of our country; when two lawmakers and their families were brutally attacked in their homes by a member of Trump’s cult; and a military parade to celebrate his birthday was somehow even more pathetic and sad than most of us thought it would be … Trump is on the losing end of a poorly played hand, and I promise you is looking for an opportunity to cash out.
He’s 79 going on 100, is hated by most of the world, and now must spend what little time he has left on Earth trapped in a tiny, miserable world of his making.
That’s quite a legacy.
I’m not completely counting him out yet, because of his unique capacity to hate. It’s all he has left. Everything he continues to do will be for him first and America second — if it at all.
In that regard, he’s never been more dangerous.
While I’ve admittedly had my doubts about what, if anything, would drive Americans into the streets to rise up against this madman, they have mostly been extinguished following Saturday’s marches.
I am more confident as I type this piece today than I was on Friday night that Americans are capable of meeting this moment. I am more confident than ever that people, not parties, will save our democracy.
We have seen this before in this tumultuous country when truly heroic people sacrificed life and limb on the battlefields, and fought with all their hearts in our streets and in our courts in the never-ending quest for equal rights.
The battle has once again been joined.
We are but 147 days into a hateful regime that is scheduled to go 1,461. We are roughly a tenth of the way towards its bitter end.
There is no way the low-energy, miserable Trump makes it.
NO.
WAY.
I say we pour it on, and finish him off.
(D. Earl Stephens is the author of “Toxic Tales: A Caustic Collection of Donald J. Trump’s Very Important Letters” and finished up a 30-year career in journalism as the Managing Editor of Stars and Stripes. You can find all his work here.)
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This plan is stunningly radical. It could also be the solution
Legal scholar Stephen Legomsky, who taught for 34 years at the Washington University in St. Louis School of Law, has just published a book, “Reimagining the American Union,” that proposes a radical idea: Abolish state government. The Conversation’s politics and democracy editor, Naomi Schalit – a former statehouse reporter herself – interviewed Legomsky about the provocative idea behind his book, in which he advocates moving most of the functions of state government down to the local level, closer to those represented and governed by it.
You propose abolishing states. Why?
The book is a thought experiment. The proposal I’m offering is long term. I realize we need states during the current political moment.
I think the states are the root cause of many, if not most, of the current dangers faced by U.S. democracy. I also see the states as a significant source of fiscal waste. We don’t need three levels of government – national, state and local – all regulating us and all taxing us. Two would do just fine. And after careful, detailed analysis, I concluded that every benefit ever claimed for state government could be achieved at least as well, and in many cases better, by the local governments.
I’m imagining the framers sitting in Independence Hall. And you go back in time and suggest to them not having states. I think most of them would drop dead at the thought, because it ultimately implies a much more powerful federal government. What would you say to them?
After they stop laughing, I would emphasize that I’m not proposing a wholesale transfer of power from the states to an all-powerful, all-knowing central government. Yes, some of the functions currently performed by the states could better be performed at the national level, but I’m proposing that the lion’s share devolve down to the local governments, which are even closer to the people they represent than the state legislatures can ever be.
Some of the most ardent Federalists, including Alexander Hamilton and James Wilson, referred to the states as “artificial beings” or “imaginary beings.” They accepted the states only because keeping them was politically essential to getting the required nine state ratifications, not because they thought states were a good idea.

What functions would your plan hand over to the federal government?
A prime example is licensing. I looked up all the different occupations that require state licenses. I was astonished: practically every health care profession, barbers, engineers, lawyers, architects, the list is endless.
If you live near a state line, you can’t practice in both states unless you get two licenses. If you move to another state, you have to get another license. This seems silly. The human anatomy, human hair, engineering principles, don’t change as you cross from New York to New Jersey. Nor do we need 50 different state driver’s licenses; a single national license administered through local agencies would be more efficient.
You say states are the root cause of the greatest threats to American democracy. What are those threats?
The structural threats are those that are baked into the Constitution itself. The Electoral College is one. On five occasions, the Electoral College has awarded the presidency to the candidate whom the voters rejected nationwide. And there were many, many near misses where the popular vote loser almost became president, making many such future instances a statistical certainty.
Perhaps even more important, every state, no matter how large or how small, gets the same number of U.S. senators. In fact, a majority of the U.S. population is represented by only about 18% of the Senate. The minority gets the other 82%.
These counter-majoritarian defects in the elections of both presidents and senators have a ripple effect. They skew the composition, and thus the decisions, of the federal courts. Three of the current Supreme Court justices were appointed by President Donald Trump after he had lost the national popular vote; five of the current Supreme Court justices were confirmed by senators who collectively represented only a minority of the U.S. population.
Here’s one especially jarring statistic: From 1969 until today, the Democratic presidential nominees won the national popular vote in a slight majority of the elections. Yet, during the presidential terms that resulted from those elections, Republican presidents have gotten to make 15 of the 20 Supreme Court appointments.
The Constitution also gives the states broad powers to regulate and run national elections. State legislatures have used those powers to pass gerrymandering, voter suppression and other counter-majoritarian laws.
If you devolve these functions and services to localities, wouldn’t you end up with a mirror of the current state-level structure? Wouldn’t this just send a lot of state personnel down to the local level?
Yes, much of that structure would devolve. However, I see that as a good thing. Devolution is unavoidable in a country this size. Not everything can be done by the central government. The question for me is, do we need two levels of subordinate political subdivisions or one? One seems more efficient. And when problems are too big for one local government to handle on its own, it can partner with other local governments or with the national government, just as many local governments do today.

If there were no states to gerrymander or pass voter-suppression laws, wouldn’t some national government agency just do it instead?
Redistricting would be performed by a nonpartisan redistricting commission that I propose be made up of technicians, mainly demographers, statisticians and geographers, under broad, general principles enacted by Congress. That’s what almost every other democracy in the world does today.
Why did you write this book?
For a long time, I’ve been distressed about so many of the dangers to our democracy. So, one day, I found myself compiling what ended up becoming a fairly long mental list of all of my democracy-related grievances.
A list of grievances like in the Declaration of Independence!
That’s a nice analogy. And as I thought about that list, it suddenly struck me that the vast majority of these problems couldn’t occur without states. That got me thinking about whether we really need states in the first place.
If it’s just a thought experiment, something that’s not going to happen, why would you think it’s worthwhile spending time writing this?
And why would I be so vain as to think anybody would want to waste their time reading it?
And your answer is, ‘Because I’m an academic!’
It’s that, plus more. I do hope there’s some scholarly value in this. But I’m also writing for the long term. States are secure for now, but history teaches us that the more distant future is full of surprises.
Stephen Legomsky, John S. Lehmann University Professor Emeritus, Washington University in St. Louis
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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DeSantis’ quest for unbridled power could soon be scuttled
Gov. Ron DeSantis and his minions have perfected the art of bending and/or dispensing with the rule of law and long-held democratic norms in ways that have enabled Republicans to keep control of the state’s political levers.
During just about every news cycle, especially during legislative sessions, we see our high-handed chief executive belittling critics, sneering at perceived enemies, and rewarding his friends.
In their quest for unbridled power, Florida Republicans have wielded their immense political power in a multiplicity of ways to subvert the will of the people.
For example, Florida voters have long been able to use the citizens’ initiative process to bypass the Republican-dominated Legislature and advance progressive policies such as raising the minimum wage, legalizing medical marijuana, and restoring the voting rights of people with felony convictions.
Senate Bill 7050, which became law in 2023, illustrates DeSantis’ political tactics, using voter suppression to discourage Democratic and primarily Black and brown voters from being able to fully participate in the electoral process. Not doing this would leave them vulnerable to voters who would likely chase them out of office.
As the Florida Phoenix’s Michael Moline noted in a 2023 story imagining a handbook for autocracy: “… Republican-run states these days are experimenting with ways to disenfranchise Democratic constituencies, stack the courts against progressive initiatives, and cement their control over this country one state at a time. The dust cover could feature the smiling mug of Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, the Republican presidential candidate who since the Black Lives Matter summer three years ago has pushed an ever-more-reactionary campaign against marginalized communities, not least at the voting booth.”
A representative of the Elias Law Group pointed to the damage from the 2023 restrictions on third-party voter registration campaigns.
“Third-party voter registration organizations play a critical role in ensuring that every eligible Floridian has an opportunity to vote, especially Black and Brown Floridians,” said partner Abha Khanna. “These organizations have helped register roughly a quarter of a million Florida voters since 2018, yet they now find their important work under assault by Governor DeSantis and the Florida Legislature. SB 7050 threatens to disrupt and discourage these organizations from helping marginalized Floridians register to vote.”
However, the federal judge in Tallahassee recently allowed the state to enforce most of the law’s provisions pending completion of the litigation.
After observing the success of that law, DeSantis and Republicans set their sights on defanging that citizen initiative petition-gathering process, imposing a slew of burdensome constraints and penalties for organizations doing that work.
Lawmakers argue the petition restrictions are needed to reform a process they claim has been tainted by fraud. The Legislature pushed HB 1205 through months after Florida voters supported ballot initiatives to protect abortion rights and legalize recreational marijuana, although the measures fell short of the 60% needed to pass. The governor signed the bill into law on May 5.
Gum up the process
This year’s HB 1205 contains a raft of requirements that gum up the petition process. For example, those gathering signatures, whether paid or volunteer, must be registered with the Division of Elections beginning July 1. Petition circulators must be Florida residents and U.S. citizens. Convicted felons are barred from doing that job unless their right to vote has been restored.
In addition, the law prohibits anyone who has “not registered as a petition circulator from possessing more than 25 signed petition forms in addition to his or her own signed form or one belonging to an immediate family member.”
Other provisions in HB 1205 include the demand that voters signing the form must provide a “current or valid Florida driver license and valid Florida identification card number, plus the last four digits of his or her social security number.” The signer must affirm that he/she has not been convicted of a felony, or, if they have, they have had their right to vote restored. Lastly, the applicant must affirm that he or she is a U.S. citizen and a Florida resident.”
The law imposes fines for petitions delivered to a supervisor of elections after the deadline. Fines increase from a $50 fee for each late petition form to $50 for each day it’s late, up to a total fine of up to $2,500 for each tardy petition form. If the sponsor or petition circulator acted willfully, the bill increases the penalty from $250 for each petition form to $2,500.
The law also creates a new fine for forms collected before the Feb. 1 deadline but submitted after that date. Each form received by a supervisor after the deadline results in a $100 fine for each day late, up to $5,000, and if the sponsor or petition circulator acted willfully, $5,000 for each late form.
Meanwhile, the deadline for submitting petitions has been shortened from 30 days to 10 days.
Longer, costlier
Groups involved in gathering petitions point to the deleterious effects the law has already had since DeSantis signed it into law on May 2. Florida Decides Healthcare says circulation has dropped 88% since then, and Smart and Safe Florida, a group advocating for the legalization of marijuana, says costs of securing petitions have ratcheted up 370% while signature gathering has plummeted from 78,000 a week to 12,000.
A representative from the Elias Law Group pointed to the damage from the 2023 restrictions on third-party voter registration campaigns.
Many of the affected organizations are devising ways around the new provisions, while other groups, like Smart & Safe Florida, are doubling down on their efforts to get enough signatures to put issues of concern to the public on the ballot.
They are busy working to get another measure on the ballot in 2026. In a court filing, Smart & Safe Florida officials characterized the new restrictions as “legislative gaslighting,” designed not to block fraud but to “effectively destroy the people’s right to invoke the citizen initiative.”
Critics contend that the new hurdles would make it prohibitively expensive and effectively impossible for grassroots campaigners to place measures on the ballot.
“This bill is not about improving the ballot initiative process. It attacks the fundamental freedom of Floridians to participate in their own democracy,” said Florida Decides Executive Director Mitch Emerson. “It is a calculated and cowardly attempt by politicians in Tallahassee to rewrite the rules — not to serve the people, but to protect their own power.”
Emerson estimates the new law will mean millions of dollars in additional costs for his campaign in complying with new requirements and hiring more paid circulators to make up for volunteers who back out for fear of legal liability.
“Volunteers are second-guessing whether they can legally help. Communities are confused. And that’s exactly what the law was designed to do: to sow confusion and try to shut down engagement before it starts,” he said.
Emerson said Florida Decides had collected about 100,000 signatures to date in its push to bank 880,000 verified petitions ahead of a Feb. 1 deadline.
Obama-appointee Chief U.S. District Court Judge Mark Walker will determine whether DeSantis has unfairly manipulated the ability of Floridians seeking to continue to have access to direct democracy.
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The most dangerous man in government right now isn't Trump
I don’t mean to be that guy, but someone has to. Someone has to say things are not getting better, no matter how low Donald Trump’s polling numbers go, no matter how stupid his birthday parade was, no matter how many people (4-6 million) protested against him last weekend.
We want things to get better, because we want to believe America is better than this. But America really isn’t better than this. The last election proved it. The next election won’t change it. If we do not face the truth about the people, I don’t see how we can make things right.
The denial is so deep that leaders of the Democratic Party still can’t bring themselves to blame the president, even when he’s directly responsible for inspiring an assassin to murder one of their own.
I mean, Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, was close friends with Melissa Hortman, the Minnesota lawmaker who was gunned down in cold blood. Martin wept for her on national TV but didn’t name Trump. He should have said, “That’s it, no more Mr. Nice Democrat.” Instead, he meekly asked why we can’t all get along.
But the denial goes deeper. As liberals cheer the fact that Trump’s job approval is sliding downward, even on issues that favor him, such as immigration, the president acts like there’s no such thing as polling, and like there’s no such thing as a public that he’s obliged to serve.
Instead, he comes out and says he will use federal law to punish his enemies and reward his friends, pulling back immigration enforcement in red states while ramping it up in blue ones. As anti-Trump conservative Joe Walsh said this morning, the “ugly plan” is to “incite violence in blue cities and blue states only, and then put the military on the streets in those blue cities and blue states only. Everything he does is meant to divide us. He is the absolute worst of us.”
Kevin Kruse called the chaos and violence intentional, yet from the way liberals and Democrats respond to it, you’d think there’s no harm being done that cannot be undone by the next election, namely when the Democrats take back the House next year. After all, just look at Trump’s polling, we are told by MSNBC pundits, as if any of this chaos and violence has anything to do with normal democratic politics.
If anything, the fear, ignorance and superstition that led to Trump’s second takeover of the US government is getting worse. It’s going viral. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dissolved the CDC vaccine advisory committee and is now stocking it with kooks and loons. He’s turning the Department of Health and Human Services into the world's biggest disinfo organ and lots of people are going to die as a result, no matter who’s elected next time.
Kennedy is probably the most dangerous man in the government right now, but don’t take my word for it. Take it from Gabrielle A. Perry, an epidemiologist, writer and philanthropist who’s been sounding the alarm on how really bad things are really going to get.
She told me that anyone who thinks Trump is losing is “as delusional as his supporters are, especially when it comes to the scientific impact of this. Anyone who is truly familiar with cults understand what is happening. You can defeat a man but it is much harder to defeat an idea.”
JS: The government is becoming the biggest disinfo machine, with Health and Human Services ordering bogus studies on the impact of vaccines on autism. What does this look like from your view?
GP: For all the faults of our government — past, present and future — I never thought I would be alive to see the day where we as a country willfully allowed the proliferation of anti-science ideology to infiltrate real-world policy.
We've always been inundated with pseudoscience. We see it in the wellness industry and the proliferation of tonics, supplements, diets and cure-alls for every ailment under the sun, from acne to cancer. People have every right to pursue their health in their own way. But to see the banning of research, the banning of scientifically backed public health measures, the criminalization of public health, the banning of mifepristone (which is used for procedures well beyond abortion) — it's to the point that now, in my work as an epidemiologist, we are having meetings to discuss ways to penetrate this cult of personality that is leading to the deaths of people, especially children, from diseases we once eliminated.
Which is proving to be an arduous task for my colleagues, as field epidemiology, case management and clinicians are seeing the rise of antagonistic feelings toward the medical and public health sphere. People seem to believe that medicine will make up for the dismantling of our public health sphere. We saw that during COVID as well, with many begging for the COVID vaccine (a preventative measure) after already contracting the disease and suffering adverse health ailments. Seeing the dismantling of American public health is terrifying, because we in the field know that the medicinal field cannot make up for what is to come, which is a massive strain on our healthcare infrastructure.
Tell me more about what's to come. How bad is healthcare in America going to get?
Despite the general public's apathy towards the dismantling of our healthcare system, even in light of COVID, the lack of vaccine uptake, the lack of availability of healthcare providers — especially as there is now a 750 percent increase in doctors moving to Canada to flee the tyranny upon their field — and the dismantling of Medicaid (which is the backbone of our health-care infrastructure), people will become sicker and sicker. This is not hard to imagine, as we are already living it. Twenty-five years ago, measles was eliminated in the U.S. Now it is decimating west Texas.
And if allowed to continue on this path, especially since it causes immune amnesia, we will continue to see elevated levels of sickness and death in children. The thing people don't understand is that for every bed in a hospital given to a person suffering from an acute, preventable illness, that removes a bed for the cancer patient, the grandmother suffering from a heart attack, the kid with the dog bite, the brother needing an open operating room for surgery.
There are not only a finite number of beds, but those beds are about to shrink in number once Medicaid is cut off at the knees. Hospitals are nonprofits. Their funds come from grants from the federal government in the form of Medicaid. Those same cuts are also going to exacerbate the current physician and nurse shortage we are having nationwide, since Medicaid is the primary funder of residency programs in the nation. Combine a lack of healthcare professionals, an overloaded healthcare system, and rampant pseudoscientific beliefs, it creates a perfect storm for the collapse of this system
There are many liberals who argue that Trump is actually losing — in the courts, in the polls, even on Wall Street. From what you're telling me, though, I gather that fear and superstition are spreading like a virus, and that talk of Trump losing is premature, to say the least.
It's delusional. They are as delusional as his supporters are, especially when it comes to the scientific impact of this. Anyone who is truly familiar with cults understands what is happening. You can defeat a man but it is much harder to defeat an idea. The president appeals to the baser instincts of a society that has already long been bred to be individualistic. And hyper-individualism is malleable. It is able to see anything happen to someone else and simply be grateful that it is not (yet) you. This man will die one day. But his ideologies will live on, because there has been no meaningful pushback. Even with the courts. If there had been, he would not even be president.
The beautiful thing about the constitution is that it is a living breathing document, but it is as useful as toilet paper in the face of tyranny. The new administration is using that document to rain down tyranny on American citizens, which should make people question the validity of the system we have and the way it operates. But that would require what many don't have: imagination. Believing beyond your current circumstances is how my ancestors and many more built the current world we live in, one they knew they would likely never see. We have long enjoyed the fruits of so many others' labor. And to get past this moment in history, it will take more than just one more vote and a general apathy. It will take imagination.
The regime appears to be setting us up for another pandemic. That's what seems like, given Kennedy's orders on the COVID vaccine and most recently, a potential bird flu vaccine. How do you see it?
Well, first, the COVID pandemic never ended. And second, the new administration is setting the American people up for many things. In times of panic and political instability, chaos allows tyranny to grow even more powerful. This has been studied. The Nazis used the fear and trepidation in the wake of the Spanish flu to rise to power by sowing fear, anti-immigrant sentiments, and more societally.
And when it comes to science, four years is a lifetime.
To not have true eyes on the mutations happening, to have an administration being willing to lie to the American people, to have a public willing to set the world on fire as long as the people they have been taught to hate suffer more? Give measles four years to proliferate wildly with no meaningful Epidemic Intelligence Service or public health pushback, we'll never outrun it.
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Blaming the poor while daddy-made millionaires sneak off with the welfare
Republicans want to stop subsidizing Americans who benefit from government-funded health programs. But by far the greatest American subsidies go to the millionaires, the 10% of Americans who own 93 percent of the stock market.
That's in part because of the so-called tax expenditures, which include mortgage deductions, interest and dividend exclusions, and reduced rates on capital gains, and which go almost entirely to the 13.7% of Americans who report enough income to itemize their taxes. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, "the cost of all federal income tax expenditures was higher than..the combined cost of Medicare and Medicaid."
A 2015 NBER study found that 70 percent of federal spending on housing was in the form of tax-based deductions that largely benefit the rich. Families with expensive homes can take a tax break of up to a half-million dollars when they decide to sell. And the wealthiest among us can take a mortgage interest deduction for a second home, which might even be a yacht.
Yet while the millionaires subsidize their estates, the proposed Republican budget would make drastic cuts to low-income housing programs.
Daddy-Made Millionaires
It gets worse. The tax designers have figured out how to gift their heirs with billions in redirected tax revenue. In a massive subsidy for the super-rich, the tax code includes a so-called stepped-upprovision which allows the super-rich to leave much of their multi-trillion-dollar stock market fortunes to their children with all the accumulated gains magically erased, and thus, in many instances, without a single dollar in taxes coming due.
If daddy and mommy's stock has grown from $10 to $100 over the years, the kids won't pay any taxes on that $90 gain, and society's potential revenue is wiped out. As baby boomers age and pass away, more and more privileged children will become accidental millionaires.
Yet while the kids of millionaires skip out on taxes, Republicans want to take food stamp benefits away from millions of poor kids.
Subsidies on American Lives
With regard to big business subsidies, economist Dean Baker says: "These government-granted monopolies likely transfer more than $1 trillion a year ($8,000 per household) from the rest of us to [those] in a position to benefit from them. In 1980 we were spending about 0.4 percent of GDP...on prescription drugs and other pharmaceutical products. Currently we spend more than 2.3 percent of GDP."
Big Pharma welfare forces us to pay much more than other countries for our medicine. According to The National Library of Medicine, "In 2022, U.S. prices across all drugs (brands and generics) were nearly three times as high as prices in 33 OECD comparison countries....In 2022, U.S. prices for insulin products were nearly ten times as high as prices in 33 OECD comparison countries."
And taking the pain to an absurd extreme, Forbes reports that "Sovaldi (a breakthrough treatment for hepatitis C) cost $84,000 for a 12-week course when it was initially launched in the U.S. In contrast, the same treatment is available in other countries, such as India, for less than $1,000."
Yet while medication for the elderly becomes evermore expensive, Republicans have proposed the largest cuts to Medicaid in history, taking health insurance away from millions of Americans.
Republicans: It's Good to Lose Your Medicaid
House Speaker Mike Johnson said, "Work is good for you. You find dignity in work." Oklahoma Senator James Lankford said, "It’s not kicking people off Medicaid..It’s transitioning from Medicaid to employer-provided health care."
Condescending enough?
Republicans say they only want to eliminate waste, fraud and abuse. To do this they're wasting lives, defrauding their constituents, and abusing the privilege of leadership.
History will never forgive us
It wasn’t all at once (although sometimes the last three months seem that way). Authoritarianism never is. It happens drip by drip, crisis by crisis, until people forget what normal even felt like.
This is how fascism seduces a nation: not by storming the gates, but by wearing down our ability to be outraged. And Donald Trump, more than any political figure in modern American history, has weaponized this steady march into moral and civic numbness.
Ten years ago, if you’d told Americans a U.S. president would attempt to overturn an election, openly praise dictators, take naked bribes from both foreign potentates and drug dealers, call the press the “enemy of the people,” cage children, pardon traitors and war criminals, and promise to act as a dictator on his first day in office, they’d have laughed. They would’ve told you, “That can’t happen here.”
But it did. And now the real danger is that we’re getting used to it.
Let’s not forget:
— When Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power in 2020, the political class gasped. Now it’s barely discussed.
— When he orchestrated an attempted coup on January 6, 2021, it was the top story in the world. Today, most Republicans call it “a protest” or a “tour” of Congress.
— Had any previous president invited an immigrant billionaire who promotes fascist memes to rip the guts out of the Social Security Administration and shut down USAID (handing our soft power to the Russians and Chinese) there would have been hell to pay. Now Elon Musk’s extraordinary damage to our government is barely discussed.
— When Trump began calling undocumented immigrants “animals” and labeling judges and prosecutors as “scum,” it horrified the media. Now it’s part of the daily churn.
— When a federal judge’s son was murdered by a Trump campaign volunteer it shocked America; now judges are routinely threatened and Republicans won’t even give the judiciary control over the US Marshall’s Service to protect them.
— When Trump praised Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán and suggested suspending the Constitution, the headlines flared, but then faded fast.
— When he arrested a Tufts University student for having co-written an op-ed in the student paper critical of Benjamin Netanyahu and threw her into prison for months, the country was appalled. Now he’s rolling out loyalty tests for civil servants and investigating the social media posts of American citizens returning to the country and nobody’s even discussing it.
— When ICE agents showed up in Portland in 2020 in unmarked vans without uniforms and their ID missing, kidnapping people off the streets without warrants, Americans and the media were shocked. Now seeing jackbooted thugs with masks covering their faces and refusing to identify themselves has become “normal.”
This is the playbook. Fascism doesn’t arrive with jackboots; it arrives with media and voter fatigue. As the political theorist Hannah Arendt warned, the very banality and ordinariness of evil is its greatest weapon.
Victor Klemperer, a Jew who converted to Lutheranism and chronicled the rise of Nazism in Germany, saw how average people learned to live with, to adapt to, to bear the unbearable. In his 1942 diary he wrote:
“Today over breakfast we talked about the extraordinary capacity of human beings to bear and become accustomed to things. The fantastic hideousness of our existence... and yet still hours of pleasure... and so we go on eking out a bare existence and go on hoping.”
Sebastian Haffner, another German observer, noted in Defying Hitler that even he, a staunch anti-Nazi, found himself one day saluting, wearing a uniform, and marching (and even secretly enjoying the feeling of authority associated with it). As the historian Robert Paxton wrote:
“To resist seemed pointless … finally, with astonishment, he observed himself raising his arm, fitted with a swastika armband, in the Nazi salute.”
And Milton Mayer, in They Thought They Were Free, described how good, decent Germans came to accept fascism. He was a Chicago reporter who, following World War II, went to Germany to interview “average Germans” to try to learn how such a terrible thing could have happened and, hopefully, thus prevent it from ever happening here.
“What happened here was the gradual habituation of the people, little by little, to being governed by surprise; to receiving decisions deliberated in secret; to believing that the situation was so complicated that the government had to act on information which the people could not understand, or so dangerous that, even if the people could understand it, it could not be released because of national security....”
He wrote about living there and the ten Germans he befriended: I found his description of a college professor to be the most poignant. As Mayer’s professor friend noted, and Mayer recorded in his book:
“This separation of government from people, this widening of the gap, took place so gradually and so insensibly, each step disguised (perhaps not even intentionally) as a temporary emergency measure or associated with true patriotic allegiance or with real social purposes. And all the crises and reforms (real reforms, too) so occupied the people that they did not see the slow motion underneath, of the whole process of government growing remoter and remoter...
“To live in this process is absolutely not to be able to notice it — please try to believe me — unless one has a much greater degree of political awareness, acuity, than most of us had ever had occasion to develop. Each step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occasion, ‘regretted,’ that, unless one were detached from the whole process from the beginning, unless one understood what the whole thing was in principle, what all these ‘little measures’ that no ‘patriotic German’ could resent must some day lead to, one no more saw it developing from day to day than a farmer in his field sees the corn growing. One day it is over his head.”
In this conversation, Mayer’s friend suggests that he wasn’t making an excuse for not resisting the rise of the fascists, but was simply pointing out what happens when you keep your head down and just “do your job” without engaging in politics.
“You see,” Mayer’s friend continued, “one doesn’t see exactly where or how to move. Believe me, this is true. Each act, each occasion, is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next.
“You wait for the one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow. You don’t want to act, or even to talk, alone; you don’t want to ‘go out of your way to make trouble.’ Why not? Well, you are not in the habit of doing it. And it is not just fear, fear of standing alone, that restrains you; it is also genuine uncertainty.
“Uncertainty is a very important factor, and, instead of decreasing as time goes on, it grows…
“But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That’s the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come immediately after the first and the smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have been sufficiently shocked — if, let us say, the gassing of the Jews in ’43 had come immediately after the ‘German Firm’ stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in ’33.
“But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.
“And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying ‘Jew swine,’ collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose.
“The world you live in — your nation, your people — is not the world you were in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays.
“But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God.”
Sound familiar?
Stephen Miller’s recent musing about suspending habeas corpus to lock up immigrants and even protestors without trial? That would’ve sparked emergency hearings a decade ago. Now it’s barely a blip.
White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller attends the White House Easter Egg Roll. REUTERS/Leah Millis
The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a blueprint to purge civil servants and replace them with regime loyalists in complete defiance of the Pendelton Civil Service Act (and the reasons it came into being), should be setting off alarm bells. Instead, it’s getting the same treatment Trump gave COVID and his multiple defiances of the law and the courts: denial, deflection, delay.
It all comes back to normalization, as M. Gessen so brilliantly chronicles in The New York Times:
“And so just when we most need to act — while there is indeed room for action and some momentum to the resistance — we tend to be lulled into complacency by the sense of relief on the one hand and boredom on the other.
“Think of the trajectory of the so-called travel ban during Trump’s first term. Its first iteration drew thousands into the streets. The courts blocked it. The second iteration didn’t attract nearly as much attention, and most people didn’t notice when the third iteration of the travel ban, which had hardly changed, went into effect. Now Trump’s administration is drafting a new travel ban that targets more than five times as many countries.”
When we stop being shocked, we stop reacting. And when we stop reacting, democracy dies.
But there is a path forward.
The antidote to normalization is resistance. Not just in voting booths, but in the streets, in courtrooms, in classrooms, in boardrooms, in pulpits, and at dinner tables.
Thucydides, who had one of the clearest eyes in history about the dangers faced by democracies, said:
“The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet nonetheless go out to meet it.”
We must regain our vision and resensitize ourselves. We must reclaim our capacity to be appalled.
That means when Trump calls Democrats “vermin,” we don’t say, “That’s just Trump being Trump.” We say: “That’s fascist rhetoric.”
When he promises to use the military against American citizens and sends out immigration officers dressed up like soldiers at war, we don’t shrug; we organize.
When Project 2025 tries to turn federal agencies into tools of vengeance, we don’t wait and see. We fight back now.
When armed federal agents hide their identification and their faces the way terroristic police do in dictatorships as they kidnap people off our streets, we call them out.
History won’t forgive us for sleepwalking into tyranny. And our children won’t either.
This is the time to remember that democracy is not self-sustaining. It requires outrage. It demands vigilance. And sometimes, it needs us in the streets with our fists in the air and our boots on the pavement.
If we still believe in this republic, in its ideals, and in the sacred value of a free and fair society, then our answer to Trump’s authoritarianism must be more than words. It must be peaceful action.
Don’t get used to fascism.
Get loud. Get active. Get in its way.
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Democrats embrace ‘Great Un-Awokening’ as inequality and rage explode
Apologies for the length of today’s letter, but this is vitally important.
Some leading Democrats are now engaged in what’s being called the “Great Un-awokening.”
Former Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel calls Democrats “weak and woke.”
Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, who is Black, vetoes a bill passed by his Democratic-dominated state legislature that took steps toward reparations.
Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom calls it “unfair” to allow transgender athletes to participate in female college and youth sports.
Michigan’s Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin says the party needs more “alpha energy.”
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg removes his pronouns from his social media bio.
Hello?
None of this gives the Democrats a message for the future. None responds to the central issues Americans care about.
The largest force in American politics is antiestablishment fury at a rigged system. There is no longer a big-government left or a small-government right or a moderate “center” in between.
There’s only right-wing cultural populism — taking aim at immigrants, transgender people, the “deep state,” “DEI,” “woke-ism”, “socialism,” critical race theory, and other Trump Republican bogeymen.
Or economic populism — aiming at the real causes of the nation’s soaring inequality and the legalized bribery of politicians: large corporations that insist on regulatory rollbacks, their fat-cat CEOs (now earning 350 times their typical employees) who want bigger tax loopholes, and other hugely wealthy Americans who are demanding larger tax cuts.
Democrats cannot win by giving in to Republican cultural populism. They must hammer economic populism.
We are at a time in the nation’s history when inequality has soared to record highs, when big money from large corporations and the rich has engulfed our politics, when CEOs are raking in record compensation compared to average workers, when a president has surrounded himself with billionaires and pledged a huge tax cut that will mainly benefit the rich at the expense of programs on which the poor and working class depend, and when American democracy is in imminent danger of succumbing to a dictatorship.
Democrats must move the national conversation to the terrain they occupied the last time inequality and corruption exploded in America.
1. The era of the Democrats’ economic populism
In the early 20th century, Americans reclaimed the economy and democracy from the robber barons of the first Gilded Age.
The Progressive Era, as it was called, emerged because millions of Americans saw that wealth and power concentrated at the top was undermining democracy and stacking the economic deck.
Wisconsin’s “Fighting Bob” La Follette instituted the nation’s first minimum-wage law. Presidential candidate William Jennings Bryan attacked the big railroads, giant banks, and insurance companies. Ohio’s Senator John Sherman led the way to America’s first antitrust legislation.
President Theodore Roosevelt used that legislation to bust up the giant trusts. Suffragists like Susan B. Anthony helped secure women the right to vote. Reformers like Jane Addams successfully pushed for laws protecting children and the public’s health. Organizers like Mary Harris “Mother” Jones spearheaded labor unions.
In 1910, Roosevelt warned that “a small class of enormously wealthy and economically powerful men, whose chief object is to hold and increase their power” could destroy American democracy. Roosevelt’s answer was to tax wealth. The estate tax was enacted in 1916 and the capital gains tax in 1922.
Teddy Roosevelt’s fifth cousin, Franklin D. Roosevelt, saw in the 1929 crash an opportunity to renegotiate the relationship between capitalism and democracy. He attacked corporate and financial power by giving workers the right to unionize, the 40-hour workweek, unemployment insurance, and Social Security.
FDR also instituted a high marginal income tax on the wealthy — those making more than $5 million a year were taxed up to 75 percent — and regulated finance.
Accepting nomination for reelection as president in 1936, FDR spoke of the need to redeem American democracy from the despotism of concentrated economic power. He reviewed what had led to the Great Crash:
Through new uses of corporations, banks and securities, [an] industrial dictatorship [now] reached out for control over Government itself . . .[T]he political equality we once had won was meaningless in the face of economic inequality. A small group had concentrated into their own hands an almost complete control over other people’s property, other people’s money, other people’s labor — other people’s lives. . . . Against economic tyranny such as this, the American citizen could appeal only to the organized power of Government. The collapse of 1929 showed up the despotism for what it was. The election of 1932 was the people’s mandate to end it.
Roosevelt warned the nation against the “economic royalists” who had pressed the whole of society into service. “The hours men and women worked, the wages they received, the conditions of their labor . . . these had passed beyond the control of the people, and were imposed by this new industrial dictatorship,” he thundered. What was at stake, he said, was nothing less that the “survival of democracy.”
On the eve of his 1936 reelection, FDR told the American people that big business and finance were determined to unseat him. He said that during his first term of office:
We had to struggle with the old enemies of peace — business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering.
They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.
Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me — and I welcome their hatred.
2. Why the Democratic Party gave up economic populism
By the 1950s, the Democratic Party had given up economic populism. Gone from their presidential campaigns were tales of greedy businessmen and unscrupulous financiers.
Postwar prosperity had created the largest middle class in the history of the world and reduced the gap between rich and poor. By the mid-1950s, a third of all private-sector employees were unionized, and blue-collar workers regularly received generous wage and benefit increases.
Keynesianism had become a widely accepted antidote to economic downturns — substituting the management of aggregate demand for class antagonism. Even Richard Nixon purportedly claimed “we’re all Keynesians now.” Who needed economic populism when fiscal and monetary policy could even out the business cycle, and when the rewards of growth were so widely shared?
Postwar fears of Soviet communism also put a damper on the older Democratic class politics.
Then the civil rights and anti-Vietnam War movements spawned an antiestablishment, anti-authoritarian New Left that distrusted government as much as it distrusted Wall Street and big business, if not more. The split eventually gave rise to a struggle within the Democratic Party between Bernie Sanders’s populists and Hillary Clinton’s mainstream Democrats.
As Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg concluded after the 2016 election, “Democrats don’t have a ‘white working-class’ problem. They have a ‘working-class problem’ which progressives have been reluctant to address honestly or boldly. The fact is that Democrats have lost support with all working-class voters across the electorate.”
Before Trump’s election in 2016, Democrats had occupied the White House for 16 out of 24 years. During the first two years of the Clinton and Obama administrations, Democrats controlled both houses of Congress.
They scored some important victories for working families, including the Affordable Care Act, an expanded Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Family and Medical Leave Act.
I’m proud of having been part of a Democratic administration during that time.
But I was also terribly frustrated during those years by the New Democrat political operatives who focused on suburban swing voters and ignored the old Democratic working class, and the corporate Democrats in Congress who refused to do more for average workers and who failed to see that if the middle class continued to shrink, authoritarianism would only grow.
Bill Clinton used his political capital to pass free trade agreements without providing millions of blue-collar workers who consequently lost their jobs the means of getting new ones that paid at least as well. His North American Free Trade Agreement and acquiescence to China’s joining the World Trade Organization undermined the wages and economic security of manufacturing workers across the nation, hollowing out the Rust Belt.
Both Clinton and Obama stood by as corporations busted trade unions, the backbone of the working class. Neither Clinton nor Obama spent any political capital to reform labor laws by allowing workers to form unions with a simple up-or-down majority vote, or even to impose meaningful penalties on companies that fired workers for trying to form unions.
During the 2008 campaign, Obama was instructed to not even use the words “labor union,” since most workers were not members and unions were thought to be unpopular.
Labor unions don’t just give workers more bargaining leverage to get higher wages and benefits. They also used to be a political counterweight to the power of large corporations and Wall Street.
Yet under Clinton and Obama, corporate power continued to rise and union membership to fall as a portion of the workforce. Antitrust enforcement continued to ossify.
Both Clinton and Obama depended on big money from corporations and the wealthy. Both turned their backs on campaign finance reform. In 2008, Obama was the first presidential nominee since Richard Nixon to reject public financing in his primary and general election campaigns, yet he never followed up on his reelection promise to pursue a constitutional amendment to overturn the Citizens United v. FEC decision.
3. The Republican Party’s embrace of cultural populism
The Democrats’ failure to embrace economic populism as they did under FDR enabled Republican cultural populism to fill the void, offering Americans who have been losing ground an explanation for what’s gone wrong and a set of villains to blame for what’s happened to them.
Richard Nixon and his protégé Pat Buchanan saw in cultural populism a means of destroying the New Deal coalition and attracting the white working class to the Republican Party.
Reagan deployed cultural populism in claiming that Washington insiders and arrogant bureaucrats had stifled the economy and hobbled individual achievement. The rot at the top of America was a cultural elite out of touch with average working Americans, and who coddled the poor — including “welfare queens,” Reagan’s racist dog-whistle.
In the 2004 presidential election, Republicans described Democrats as an effete group of “latte-drinking, sushi-eating, Volvo-driving, New York Times–reading, body-piercing [and] Hollywood-loving” jerks out of touch with the real America.
Meanwhile, big money poured into the American political system. By the 2016 election, the richest 100th of 1 percent of Americans — 24,949 extraordinarily wealthy people — accounted for a record-breaking 40 percent of all campaign contributions flowing to both parties. That same year, corporations flooded the presidential, Senate, and House elections with $3.4 billion in donations.
Labor unions no longer provided any countervailing power, contributing only $213 million.
By the 2020s, Republicans saw the culture wars as the central struggle of American public life.
Enter Trump.
4. The consequence
In the decades immediately after World War II, college graduates voted Republican. Republican legislators were significantly more likely than Democratic legislators to hail from Ivy League universities.
It’s the reverse today. Between the 1980s and 2020s, the Democratic Party went from being the party of American workers to the party of college-educated professionals. Today, they vote Democratic.
Trump is the consequence rather than the source of these trends.
Yet Republican cultural populism is entirely bogus. The biggest change over the previous four decades — the change lurking behind the insecurities and resentments of the working class — has had nothing to do with identity politics, “woke”ism, critical race theory, transgender kids, immigration, “cat ladies,” or any other Republican cultural bogeymen.
It has been a giant upward shift in the distribution of income and wealth; in the power that has accompanied that shift; and in the injuries to the pride, status, and self-esteem of those who have been left behind.
The so-called “Great Un-Awokening” in the Democratic Party is a dangerous diversion from where the party should be — a deflection from what has really happened to a very large number of Americans.
If Democrats have learned anything from what has occurred in America, it should be that they must reverse the giant upward distribution of income and wealth. Counter the upward shift in power. Strive to heal the injuries borne by those who have been left behind.
In short, they must embrace economic populism. Otherwise, why have a Democratic Party?
Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com
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How a little-known 1970s court ruling crashed today's democracy
House Speaker Mike Johnson says that California Gov. Gavin Newsom should be “tarred and feathered” because he’s going along with protesters who object to Donald Trump’s fascist behavior.
The vast majority of political violence over the past 15 years has been committed by rightwing goons and assassins, culminating in Minneapolis last weekend with the shooting dead of a Democratic state representative and her husband and the wounding of two more Democrats.
In Los Angeles, Trump is inserting Marines into an American city against the will and wishes of the mayor and that state’s governor. In Washington, he just rolled out a North Korea-style military parade. Next, he wants to give billionaires another $5 trillion tax gift funded by borrowed money you and your children will have to pay back.
And now he’s changed the Veterans Administration rules so doctors and nurses can refuse to provide services to veterans who are registered as Democrats. Seriously, I'm not making that up.
How did we get here?
When, in 1978, five corrupt Republicans on the Supreme Court first ruled that corporations are persons and money is the same thing as free speech, that Bellotti decision authored by Lewis Powell (of Powell Memo infamy) first set America on the road to oligarchy.
At that time, Congress was still regularly passing legislation that benefited average working class and poor Americans, and the morbidly rich were doing just fine. The previous 46 years since the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 had seen legislation passed and signed into law that included:
- Legalizing unions
- Minimum wage
- Banking protections (Glass-Steagall)
- Reforesting America (Civilian Conservation Corps)
- Major power projects (Hoover Dam, TVA, etc.)
- Subsidized electricity to rural areas
- Social Security
- Unemployment Insurance
- Aid for Dependent Children
- Public Housing
- 40-hour week and overtime rules
- Ending child labor
- Survivor’s benefits for orphans and widows
- Job Corps
- VISTA (Volunteers in Service to America)
- Head Start
- Food stamps
- Outlawing discrimination in public accommodations and education
- Outlawing discrimination in the workplace
- Federal funding for public schools
- Medicare
- Medicaid
- Voting rights
- Pell Grants and other college subsidies
- Housing and Urban Development Act
- Child Nutrition Act (school lunches)
By 1978, America was largely a functioning democracy, as both women and racial minorities were guaranteed the right to vote. But the Bellotti decision (and its 1976 Buckley predecessor) opened the door for billionaires and corporations to legally buy politicians, enabling Ronald Reagan to float into the White House in the 1980 election on a tsunami of corporate (mostly oil and banking) money.
In the 44 years since that Reagan Revolution, on-the-take Republicans (and a large handful of on-the-take “problem solver” Democrats) have passed a total of two pieces of legislation that exclusively or primarily benefited average working class or poor people:
- Low Income Home Energy Assistance Act (LIHEAP)
- Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA)
I know it sounds mind-boggling when put in those terms, but I’ve been running a contest on my radio program for 22 years offering a prize to anybody who can name even one single piece of legislation that was written by Republicans, signed into law by a Republican president, and benefited primarily the average person — and nobody has won.
Even Obamacare was originally written by the billionaire-funded Heritage Foundation as a trillion-dollar gift to the health insurance industry, which it certainly has turned out to be.
Thus, when President Jimmy Carter told me in 2011 that the 2010 Citizens United decision that doubled-down on and expanded Bellotti had finally and completely turned America into an oligarchy, he was right on the money.
Since the Reagan Revolution, and particularly since the Citizens United decision, America has been run at the federal level almost exclusively by, for, and to the benefit of the morbidly rich; the needs and desires of the bottom 99 percent of us have been largely ignored.
CEO pay, for example, has gone up 1,209% since 1978, while worker pay has gone up a mere 15.3%. Housing in the 1950s cost about twice the average annual salary; today it’s closer to ten times as much.
In the years from 1933 to 1980, the middle class saw their income and wealth steadily increase; Reagan put an end to that, so completely that fully $50 trillion (with a “T” — 12 zeros) has been transferred from the pensions, savings, homes, investments, and paychecks of the middle class into the money bins of the morbidly rich since he took office in 1981.
So, we’re now living in an oligarchy. And that’s the danger.
Oligarchy, as I described in detail in The Hidden History of American Oligarchy and told Ali Velshi yesterday on MSNBC, is an incredibly unstable form of government; it’s always transitional. The reason is simple: When working class people finally figure out how badly they’ve been and are being screwed by the morbidly rich, they rebel.
At first, that rebellion typically takes the form of a populist uprising, and whichever politician first figures it out and plays the role of the populist who’ll restore things to their former order typically takes power.
If the neoliberal Clinton machine hadn’t sabotaged the Sanders’ candidacy in 2016, that would have been Bernie; instead, Trump played the role of the great defender of the middle class in that year’s election and middle-class outrage at oligarchy carried him into the White House.
The crisis we face today is grounded in the fact that Trump is not — and never has been — a defender of the middle class. His appeals to race and misogyny have given him the patina of one, at least with white men, but at core he’s an oligarch himself and his policies exclusively benefit his wealthy peers.
Thus, as Americans rise up to fight against oligarchy, the oligarchs face a simple binary choice: back down and restore economic fairness and the social safety net, or crack down with an iron fist.
This is the critical moment we’re facing today, one that’s been repeated over and over throughout history in other countries.
Tragically, it’s extremely rare that oligarchs back down without an overwhelming crisis; America’s oligarchs only surrendered power in the 1930s — one of the few exceptions to the rule — because the Republican Great Depression was so severe they didn’t think they could pull it off (although they tried with the failed plot to kidnap and kill Roosevelt in 1933).
When Putin, Orbán, Erdoğan, el Sisi, and other oligarchs faced similar populist anti-oligarch revolts by their own countrymen, they brought down the hammer. The free press, free speech, the right to protest, and meaningful political opposition have vanished from all of those countries and dozens more who’ve trod that same path.
So, Trump now faces that same terrible choice.
Does he go along with the wishes of the people and stop catering exclusively to his billionaire buddies, letting their taxes go back up and stopping Republican plans to further gut the social safety net?
Or does he begin arresting protestors, jailing politicians and judges, and shutting down the press?
America is thus today balanced on a knife’s-edge.
And the only force that can stop a further slide into tyranny is us, the voice of the people. If we’re strong enough, the united Republican front supporting Trump’s headlong race toward dictatorship will crack and he’ll be forced to back down.
On the other hand, if Trump continues to exclusively listen to his hardcore rightwing billionaire buddies and Republicans retain an united front in Congress, get ready for bloodshed, overflowing prisons, and the end of the American experiment.
To the extent that we still have agency, that we still have our voices, that we can still reach out to Republican politicians and have some influence on their behavior, that choice is now also ours.
The phone number for Congress is 202-224-3121. Join your local progressive activist group and show up for meetings of the Democratic Party in your community. Speak up and speak out in every venue you can find.
We have a hell of a lot of work to do.
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Nick Anderson is a Pulitzer Prize-winning editorial cartoonist.
Hit them where it hurts: Loyalty to Trump is costing CEOs billions
Today I want to assess Saturday’s No Kings protests in the context of American capitalism.
Standing up against Donald Trump is not only important politically and morally. It’s also profitable.
Diversity, for example, is good for business. CEOs that have scaled back their companies’ diversity programs in response to Trump’s attacks have misread the market and are now suffering the consequences.
When Target rolled back DEI, the company confronted a consumer boycott, which led to a 17 percent drop in the value of its stock. A similar boycott of Walmart has contributed to an 18 percent drop in its stock value in the past month alone.
Palantir, a data analysis and technology firm whose contracts with the federal government are expanding, has taken heat over its rejection of DEI and coziness with Trump. (In a recent speech to the Economic Club of New York, Palantir CEO Alex Karp told the audience that DEI programs are antithetical to meritocracy.)
On the other hand, corporations like Costco and Apple, which have stood firm against Trump and in favor of DEI, have done well.
That’s because diversity is good for business. Investors and consumers often consider a company’s commitment to diversity in making their decisions. Most big institutional shareholders such as BlackRock and Vanguard believe that a diverse workforce and customer base increases corporate profits.
Costco’s management says its DEI efforts have helped it attract and retain a wide range of employees and improve merchandise and services in stores. “Among other things, a diverse group of employees helps bring originality and creativity to our merchandise offerings, promoting the ‘treasure hunt’ that our customers value,” Costco said in its proxy statement to investors.
Similarly, law firms that have refused to cave to Trump’s blackmail are being rewarded by clients, while those that have surrendered are being penalized.
At least 11 major companies — among them Oracle, Morgan Stanley, Microsoft, and McDonald’s — have shifted their legal work to firms that have stood up against Trump and away from firms that struck deals with him, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Microsoft dropped Paul, Weiss — one of the first law firms to surrender to Trump —and signed on with Jenner & Block, which took the administration to court. (A federal judge struck down Trump’s executive order against Jenner, saying it was “doubly violative of the Constitution.” Trump is appealing.)
Legal talent is also parting ways with firms that surrendered to Trump. Key lawyers and rainmakers are joining firms that have held their ground.
Paul, Weiss lost four of its partners after its surrender. One is among America’s top antitrust litigators; another co-chaired its litigation department.
As many as seven partners are exiting Willkie Farr & Gallagher in the wake of its surrender to Trump and joining rival law firm Cooley, which has helped successfully challenge one of Trump’s orders in court.
Corporate clients and legal talent are deserting law firms that surrendered to Trump because the surrenders have brought into question the integrity of these firm’s managing partners.
General counsels at various companies told The Wall Street Journal that they doubted that firms surrendering to Trump could be relied upon to represent them — in court or at the negotiating table — since they couldn’t stand up for themselves.
At a recent luncheon at Cipriani in Midtown Manhattan, Brooke Cucinella, a top lawyer for Citadel — a large hedge fund headed by Republican megadonor Ken Griffin — told a group of corporate lawyers that the company likes to work with law firms that aren’t afraid of a fight.
The lesson should be clear to CEOs and top managers: Surrendering to Trump is bad for business.
Another lesson: boycotts work. The consumer boycott of Target for abandoning DEI has been hugely costly to the corporation. Similarly with Walmart. The boycott of Tesla due to Elon Musk’s destructive role has caused investors to flee.
Remember: Corporations are little more than the power of their brands to attract consumers, and their ability to attract talented people to manage and innovate. If they surrender to Trump, their brands are likely to suffer since most Americans don’t approve of Trump’s bullying. And some of their most talented people are likely to leave, since many can’t abide Trump’s attempts to undermine our democracy.
Saturday’s No Kings Day protests were hugely successful. We should keep the heat on Trump as both consumers and investors — boycotting corporations and firms that cave in to him and rewarding those that don’t.
Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/
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