Opinion
It's already begun: History offers an ominous lesson about economic crashes
In three weeks, on my birthday May 7th, it’ll be exactly 80 years since Germany signed terms of surrender at the headquarters of US General Dwight D. Eisenhower in Reims, France.
That year, 1945, also signaled the official end of the Republican Great Depression. And May 7 of this year may well signal the beginning of the Second Republican Great Depression, the fourth major economic crash in our history. Troublingly, every one of the prior three financial crises also tripped off a major war.
As Neal Howe points out in his book The Fourth Turning Is Here, it was roughly 80 years or four generations from the Credit Crisis of 1772 which provoked the American Revolutionary War until the Panic of 1857, which set the stage for the Civil War.
Another 80 years passed between the end of the Civil War in 1865 and the end of the Republican Great Depression (which triggered WWII) and May 7, 1945. And here we are, exactly 80 years later, on the verge of another depression and possibly a third world war.
Howe posits that 80 years is how long it takes for the generation that made the mistakes that produced the last depression to die off and thus not be available to warn about those same errors being repeated. And depressions almost always lead to wars.
(While recessions typically last months to a year and involve modest declines in stocks and increases in unemployment, depressions typically last years and cause massive losses with unemployment as high as a third of all Americans.)
But it’s not just the passage of eight decades that indicates the Second Republican Great Depression — and possibly America’s next Great War — is upon us. For that, we find the same conservative greed and corruption that provoked the Credit Crisis of 1772, the Panic of 1857, and the Republican Great Depression of the 1930s.
All three were caused by wealthy speculators interacting with a corrupt administration (in 1772 it was the Brits), which is exactly what we’re seeing again today in the most corrupt administration in US history.
Give Trump and his corrupt cronies millions in campaign cash or purchases of his digital “coins” and he’ll give you and your industry an exception to his tariffs; hell, give him enough money to win an election and he’ll even let you take over and then gut the American government and fire all the people conducting investigations into you and your companies.
Advertising revenue is the earliest of the early warning indicators: Last week, the CEO of the advertising agency that sells ads for my radio show called to let us know that advertisers are pulling back, across the board, on pretty much every form of media in every sector. They can see that consumers are themselves pulling back — anticipating a combined recession and tariff-driven inflation — meaning advertising will produce smaller revenue returns.
Meanwhile, both JPMorgan and Wells Fargo tell The Financial Times (for an article titled (“Warning lights flash for US consumer strength as credit defaults rise”) that they’re seeing significant and concerning defaults across the system among their credit card holders. And tourism to America, which is a massive industry representing about 4% of our GDP, has collapsed.
Today. Now. In other words, it’s already begun.
Since consumer spending drives about 80 percent of America’s GDP, this is a disastrous turn of events that feeds on itself: As people buy less to build up their savings, companies suffer from lower sales. That causes them to lay off workers, who then can’t buy anything, further deepening the recession.
China isn’t taking Trump’s little trade war lightly, either; they’re right now crippling the UK steel industry (which they largely own because the conservative Boris Johnson administration stupidly sold it to the Chinese) in “an act of hybrid warfare designed to punish the UK and Donald Trump” as the headline in the Express cites.
And forget about tariffs; the Chinese government is blocking “direct exports of major U.S. commodities including beef, poultry and liquified natural gas through an array of bureaucratic blocks and tricky third-party sales deals.” Additionally, they’ve blocked the export of vital rare earth minerals we need to manufacture chips, displays, and advanced weaponry.
The goal is to cripple America economically in response to Trump’s threats and bluster, and it’s working.
Most concerning, though, is what’s happening to the bond markets and the dollar; this is where the signs don’t just point to recession but possibly a Second Republican Great Depression that could explode unemployment and last years.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped from 4% to over 4.5% within a week this month, marking one of the sharpest increases on record. This is an warning that the rest of the world is losing confidence in the US as a “safe haven” for their money.
You’ll recall that when the bond market went “wobbly,” Trump paused his major tariffs on every country in the world except China. That’s how frightening the event was.
The backstory is that he was apparently forced into this by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, himself the former Chairman of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada (the equivalents of our Fed).
Carney reportedly got together recently with leaders of Europe and Japan to plan their response to Trump, and — being a former central banker — knew the biggest threat he and other democracies in the world could wield against Trump would be a 1929-style collapse of the US bond markets.
All they’d have to do is to begin to carefully dump their holdings of US treasuries, and it could force Trump to back down to avoid a massive market crash and freeze of the dollar-based system of international finance.
About $8.5 trillion of the US’ $36 trillion national debt is held by foreign governments (as treasuries), including $350 billion by Canada, $1 trillion by Japan, an estimated $1 trillion by China, and between $1.5 and $2 trillion by the EU.
If they were to coordinate the process of dumping their bonds, he reportedly suggested, it would flood the market with US bonds and make it harder for the American Treasury Department to sell new debt issues, forcing us to increase the rate of interest we pay.
This would drive up US mortgages (which just jumped above 7%!) and other credit, make it harder for companies to finance expansion and new operations, while increasing the $1+ trillion annual interest cost to the US government to fund our own debt. The result, if sustained over even a few months, could be devastating.
And, sure enough, it appears that’s exactly what they did this past week when bond yields shot up, forcing Trump to put a 90-day pause on most of his tariffs.
On top of that, the dollar is falling at the same time bond yields are rising, something that hasn’t happened since the last Republican Great Depression.
This bond dump threatens America’s position as the holder of the world’s reserve currency, as well as possibly producing a liquidity crisis similar to what had Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen’s hands trembling when, in 2008, he announced that the nation’s banking system had “frozen up” and needed a multi-trillion-dollar bailout from Congress and our Fed (which Bush gave to the banks and their executives).
And if you think that’s an exaggeration or fear-mongering, consider this headline from The Financial Times yesterday: “US dollar’s haven status under threat, fund managers warn.” The article cites numerous credible sources, all arguing in one way or another that Trump’s erratic behavior is threatening to throw America into an existential fiscal crisis that we may not recover from for years.
Should Carney, et al, continue dumping US debt and China jump in by bailing on their known $760+ billion in treasuries while continuing their boycott of US goods, it could bring our financial system to its knees.
And this, just as Republicans in Congress are trying to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion (which will have to be borrowed by selling that amount in additional treasuries) to fund their planned $4.5 trillion tax gift to Elon Musk and America’s other billionaires (including Trump and the 13 billionaires in his cabinet).
Highlighting the danger, the headline in Friday’s Financial Times is, for finance experts, a virtual primal scream: Liquidity worsens in $29tn Treasury market as volatility soars. At the same time, our nation’s debt has crossed the “100% of GDP” threshold, a dangerous and expensive reality that increases the risk of a financial crisis here in America.
And, taking that out of our own hands, fully 30% of that debt is held outside the US and could be dumped without regard to its impact on America (or because of that impact, if punitive).
Republicans are entirely responsible for this loaded debt gun that’s now being put to our heads. Reagan’s tax gifts to billionaires (which is still in effect) have cost America at least $20 trillion; Bush’s have cost us around $6 trillion, plus another $6 trillion for the two illegal wars he lied us into to win the 2004 election; and Trump’s last tax cut cost us an estimated $5 trillion. That’s $37 trillion, and our national debt right now only stands at $36.22 trillion.
And they did it all because of Jude Wanniski’s “Two Santas” theory from 1976, which argued that when there’s a Republican in the White House he should spend like a drunken sailor (which stimulates the economy, creating the appearance of good times) to drive up the national debt.
Then, Wanniski argued, when a Democrat comes into office, Republicans should scream and squeal about the national debt “that our children will have to pay” to force Democrats to “shoot their Santa” of Social Security and other social programs in the face.
Every Republican president since Reagan has followed the plan, and the result, in part, is that as Trump’s stupid tariff policies push us to the edge of another depression we now are so deeply in debt that we lack the tools to respond.
Donald Trump has bankrupted or thrown into crisis virtually every business he ever started prior to jumping into crony capitalism politics in 2016. He’s truly that much of an incompetent bumblefuck. And now he’s doing it to The United States of America.
After all, as I’ve written before, if you want to bring manufacturing back to the United States with tariffs you do it gradually, sector by sector, product by product, through Congress (as the Constitution specifies) so businesses know those tariffs will last longer than a presidential whim.
Making that point and highlighting the danger and stupidity of Trump’s actions, famed investor Ray Dalio told NBC’s Meet the Press this weekend:
“Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”
Batten down your financial hatches and get ready; this is going to be rough for everybody except the morbidly rich, who are rubbing their hands with gleeful anticipation at the upcoming “buying opportunity of the century” to acquire everything from small companies to real estate to stocks, all on sale at massive, depression-era-level discounts.
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Everything Trump is doing makes perfect sense if you understand one simple fact
Everything Donald Trump is doing and will do makes perfect and sudden sense if you understand one simple fact: For him, it’s all a show.
He views the White House as a sound stage, like the set made to look like a boardroom where he performed for NBC on The Apprentice. He sees the people around him as a supporting cast, who can each be easily and quickly replaced (and often are) if they fail to play their roles the way he thinks will work best for the program.
Partly, this is because this is all he knows how to do. He was a terribly incompetent businessman, pissing away his father’s entire fortune on a series of businesses that he ran into the ground, one after the other:
Trump Steaks, Trump Water, Trump Board Game, Trump Taj Mahal, Trump Castle, Trump Vodka, Trump Mortgage, Trump Magazine, Trump Ties, Trump Cologne, Trump Vitamins, Trump Ice, Trump Suits, Trump Homes, Trump Financial, Trump Institute, Trump New Media, Trump Shuttle Airline, Trump Plaza Hotel, Trump University, New Jersey Generals, Tour de Trump, Trump Magazine, etc. Every single one failed, some spectacularly.
The only real success he’s had in his entire life — before entering politics — was the TV program that Mark Burnett carefully staged and choreographed, NBC carried and promoted, and GE invested in by paying for his acting lessons. It succeeded because Donald had no control over it; he just showed up and did what the show’s writers and Burnett told him to do.
Running the White House like a reality show also fits well with his personality and his psychopathology. As a sociopath or psychopath (as psychiatrists Dr. Bandy X. Lee and Dr. Justin Frank both mentioned on my radio program), his brain was already wired to view other people as mere props in the grand play of his life: people with his affliction have little ability to empathize with others or even to recognize other people as fully human.
It’s why he was so absent from parenting his own kids, why he serially cheated on every one of his three wives, why he uses people up and then discards them and has done so his entire life. It’s why he bonded so tightly with fellow psychopath Roy Cohn, who gleefully sent an innocent Ethel Rosenberg to the electric chair just for his own entertainment.
It explains why he’d send an innocent man to a horrible prison in El Salvador and then argue that he shouldn’t be brought back to the US; not admitting a mistake is far more important to his narcissism-riddled ego than imagining the terror Armando Garcia, his wife, and his two children (including his nonverbal, autistic son) must be feeling.
Running the White House as a reality show also explains Trump’s “casting” for his cabinet and senior officials. As he’s repeatedly proclaimed, he’s far more interested in their being telegenic and able to perform for the cameras than being competent. He was entranced by “Mad Dog” Mattis, who’s now replaced by the equally colorfully-nicknamed Lt. Gen. John Dan “Razin” Caine.
And his cabinet officers — particularly those who share Trump’s sociopathy — know that their job isn’t to run their agencies competently; it’s far more important that they get in front of cameras as often as possible.
While Biden’s cabinet officers were expected to show up at work every day, keep their staffs and agencies on the straight-and-narrow, and produce results for the American people, Trump only wants public performance and fealty. After all, it’s just a show.
Thus, Kristi Noem travels the country in tight tops or ICE uniforms, pointing big guns and showing off her hair extensions and $60,000 Rolex watch to El Salvadoran prisoners. Bob Kennedy goes to funerals and entertains conspiracy nuts. Pam Bondi appears so often on Fox “News” (with her little gold cross above her cleavage) that that network should pay her a salary. Ditto for Karoline Leavitt.
You could see it all on display at yesterday’s televised cabinet meeting show, as billionaire after billionaire lavished Trump with praise, occasionally having to wipe the slobber from their mouths. Or when, the day before, Trump bragged, “I’m telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are!”
This understanding also explains how and why Trump is so dangerous to average Americans and such a threat to world peace.
This man who’s doesn’t appear to maintain a drivers’ license because he’s been chauffeured everywhere since he was a child — who grew up in a 23-room mansion filled with servants, silk, and gilt — has no understanding of the lives and struggles of everyday citizens who must worry about their kids, their homes, and their jobs.
It explains why he’s just fine with billionaire-funded Republican legislators — many among them also sociopaths — gutting Medicaid, defunding public schools, denying the climate crisis, worsening student debt, privatizing Medicare, and refusing to pay for food banks and school lunches.
Not to mention his right-hand-billionaire, Elon Musk, condemning millions of people across the planet to horrible deaths from HIV and TB by destroying USAID while he’s crippling Social Security and firing hundreds of thousands of federal workers who are now desperately trying to figure out how to pay their mortgages or put their kids through school.
The biggest danger from Trump’s performance-based presidency isn’t the damage he’s doing to Americans, however. It’s his constant craving for the show to be bigger, more spectacular, and have better ratings. He wants adulation and eyeballs, and — like throughout the rest of his life — doesn’t care who it hurts.
For that, he’s climbed up onto the world stage and just these past two weeks has declared a spectacular trade war against the planet’s second-largest economy with the second-largest military (soon to surpass ours).
Fully fifteen percent of China’s GDP is tied up in exports to the United States, and the country was already in a fiscal mess as they’re experiencing the crash of a housing bubble, deflation, and an internal debt crisis. Backing President Xi into a corner as Trump is doing is extraordinarily reckless; Trump, however, correctly believes it’ll increase his ratings and add drama to his show.
It could also, though, easily lead to World War III, and China has a larger army, larger navy, and a nuclear stockpile that could wipe out America a dozen times over. Plus, they’ve developed a tight alliance with Russia; this would be a reprise of the Allies-Axis conflict that was World War II, except this time Russia won’t be on our side and Europe may well try to sit the conflict out.
It’s tempting to want to just sit back and watch the daily drama of the Trump Show, not thinking it will affect us or our families. That, however, would be a huge mistake because no matter how entertaining or shocking it may be, it will eventually come for each and every one of us.
NOW READ: Trump is about to target something far more terrifying than tariffs
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Gretchen Whitmer just did us all a huge favor
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer stands, as U.S. President Donald Trump (not pictured) signs executive orders and proclamations, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 9, 2025.
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“Let’s give more hard-working people a fair shot at a decent life. And let’s usher in, as President Trump says, a ‘Golden Age’ of American manufacturing.”
-Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) Wednesday spouting MAGA rhetoric before a meeting with the America-attacking Donald Trump in the Oval Office.
“She’s really done an excellent job. She’s a very good person.”
-The America-attacking Donald Trump during the meeting with Whitmer, in which he moved her around like a piece of used office furniture, before converting her into a photo/op where he once again said the 2020 election was “rigged.”
First, I want to thank Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer for getting all this out of the way early before a 2028 presidential election that may or may not happen.
By doing us the courtesy of not wasting our time any longer pretending she’s anything but a complete phony we can move on to rooting for and supporting candidates who really do share our ideals, and understand the extreme danger we are in right now in America.
Because either you understand that, or you don’t. This is no time for playing cute, and screwing around in the squishy middle.
Until her embarrassing public surrender Wednesday, I actually had Whitmer pegged for possible stardom.
I believed in “Big Gretch” and wrote glowingly about her and the women in Michigan, who had played a large part in facilitating the resistance against the ghastly Trump the past seven years. Frankly, they were inspirational and made me proud to support a party that stood up for voters, and against those who facilitated violent attacks against them.
Sure it was an easy stand to take, but I appreciated their toughness, panache and zeal nonetheless. They were on the right side of the fight, and damn, I was proud to fight alongside them.
Turns out, there is nothing Whitmer will do for the good people of Michigan unless she thinks it is good for herself, and that is just terribly, terribly sad.
Her political career died an ugly death Wednesday, because she’s too damn weak, and self-centered to understand that real leaders don’t walk into enemy territory and surrender to racist tyrants, they fight them every damn step of the way.
Here’s how AP reported her self-induced kidnapping to the vile woman-abusing Trump:
“She was feet from his desk when he signed a pair of memoranda directing the Justice Department to investigate two of his critics and signed an executive order exacting retribution against a law firm whose work he opposed.”
A national Democratic strategist quoted by NBC-News put it this way:
“It is a massive indictment on Whitmer and her team’s judgment to, first, not have an answer on the tariff question and then go the White House and get absolutely played by Donald Trump to the point she is caught in the Oval Office as he signs one of his revenge and retribution executive orders and says 2020 was rigged.”
Another strategist, who admires Whitmer put it more succinctly:
“Just a f------ disaster.”
There was no damn reason for Whitmer to be within three states of the White House, yet there she was literally in the lions (er, lyin’s) den. Worse, this was not the first time she has met with this monster since he was reelected.
Watching her show so little self-respect for herself is absolutely painful. Watching her show so little respect for people like myself, who have supported her with my time treasure, and endorsement is absolutely galling.
In a feeble statement, Whitmer claimed she was brought into the Oval Office in front of the press "without any notice" and emphasized her presence was not an "endorsement of the actions taken or statements" made at that event.
Sure, OK. She just happened to be at the bank with the crook while it was being robbed …
All of this surrendering and capitulation by “marquee” Democrats points to a larger problem within the fast-fading party itself. People are sick and tired of their sick and tired act.
Either you believe what you are saying, or you don’t. Either you believe Trump is an extreme danger to our democracy, the rule of law, clean air and water, and any damn American value you tell us you care about, or you don’t.
Only roughly one in four Americans have a favorable opinion of a party that has become littered with out-of-touch “leaders” running on the old, stale fumes of recycled garbage.
From a CNN poll last month:
Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents say, 57% to 42%, that Democrats should mainly work to stop the Republican agenda, rather than working with the GOP majority to get some Democratic ideas into legislation.
The survey was taken March 6-9, days before 10 Democratic senators — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — voted with Republicans in the chamber to advance a GOP-authored spending bill to avert a government shutdown, much to the chagrin of many other Democratic lawmakers and progressive critics.
The majority’s desire to fight the GOP marks a significant change in the party’s posture from the start of Trump’s first term. A September 2017 poll found a broad 74% majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners saying their party should work with Republicans in an attempt to advance their own priorities, and just 23% advocating for a more combative approach.
They simply aren’t listening to us.
Too many Democratic leaders aren’t fighters, they are whiners, right Schumer?
Instead of standing up for Americans, they are doing nothing at all, or even worse: They are rolling over for Trump.
It’s pathetic.
Was there ever a better illustration of how little they think of us when just days after losing the most important election of our lifetimes, Joe Biden eagerly invited the America-attacker back to the White House and the scene of the January 6, 2021 crime, and in front of roaring fire flashed his toothy smile, and heartily exclaimed, “Welcome back!”
I’ll never be able to unsee that. “Welcome back.” Holy hell …
And, say, have you been reading all these stories recently about the never-ending sniping between the Clintons, Biden, Kamala Harris and Barack Obama teams during the most important election of our lifetimes?
We’re out here knocking on doors with our hair on fire, shoveling our hard-earned cash out the door and were (are) frankly terrified of what another Trump term would mean, while these inbred, lifetime campaigners were airing petty feuds behind closed doors.
The party needs a bath.
A few Democrats like Cory Booker, and Sens. Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren, Reps. Jasime Crockett, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez before him, have finally owned up to their their gross inaction, and are busy doing what they were elected for — the very least of which should be standing relentlessly against a two-bit, lying crook who sees good people on both sides of a KKK rally, and whose violent attack on our vote may have irreparably wrecked this country for good.
Democratic Party leadership is full of too many complete phonies, and the only ones who can’t seem to see this are the so-called leaders themselves.
A lot is rightfully made of Republicans’ appalling refusal to take on the odious Trump, but tell me: When are Democrats going to start taking action on their own?
Why are Schumer and Dick Durbin still leading the Democratic senate?
Unless they see a 29 percent approval rating as something to be proud of …
Ya know, what happed here in Wisconsin last week should be instructive to Democrats going forward. There are lessons to be learned.
We won a crucial Supreme Court race up here by double-digits, because instead of it being about professional politicians, the race was simply about the issues.
By electing Judge Susan Crawford, thus ensuring liberals will control this court until at least 2028, Wisconsinites by huge margins signaled they don’t want billionaires like the grotesque Elon Musk interfering with our elections.
Wisconsinites said they believe in fair political maps.
Wisconsinites said they believe in a woman’s right to choose.
In fact, the only national politician who got involved up here was the despicable Trump himself, who gave a full-throated endorsement of the race’s ultimate loser, Brad Schimel.
That terrible tandem lost by a whopping 10 points, an almost unheard of margin in this razor-close state.
Turns out, Trump’s toxic agenda is not popular here, and this vote happened BEFORE people’s life savings were battered by these destructive tariffs that Whitmer wants to politely haggle over, instead of doing everything in her power to shove in the nearest s---can.
The Democratic Party is broken, people, and it’s OK to say that.
It would be far, far worse not to.
We have the power, so we must demand change, dammit.
Unless you don’t think we’re worth it …
D. Earl Stephens is the author of “Toxic Tales: A Caustic Collection of Donald J. Trump’s Very Important Letters” and finished up a 30-year career in journalism as the Managing Editor of Stars and Stripes. You can find all his work here, and follow him on Bluesky here.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Since this piece published, The New York Times has reported this: “The day after the inauguration, Ms. Whitmer penned a handwritten letter — which has not been previously reported — congratulating Mr. Trump, saying she looked forward to working together and praising his support for the auto industry in his first address, according to a person who relayed the text of the letter. Ms. Whitmer included her cellphone number and invited Mr. Trump to call her if she could be of any help to him.”
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There’s a new dress code in Trump’s DC — and it’s straight out of a dictator’s playbook
— Trump’s legal serfs: when law firms bow to the Don. Trump is bragging about how he’s forced five more major US law firms to kiss his a-- and give away $940 million in free services to his favorite causes. So far, the rogues gallery of cowardly law firms which have put money above principle includes Kirkland & Ellis, Latham & Watkins, Allen Overy Shearman Sterling, Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft, Paul Weiss, Skadden Milbank & Willkie, and Farr & Gallagher. On the other hand, three major firms are suing Trump’s administration for their efforts to intimidate and extort them (my words, not theirs), including Perkins Coie, Jenner & Block, and WilmerHale. And over 1600 attorneys who work for the big firms that have bowed down to Trump’s intimidation have signed a letter demanding they do better.
They wrote: “When we are united, we cannot be intimidated. These tactics only work if the majority does not speak up. Our hope was that our employers, some of the most profitable law firms in the world, would lead the way. That has not yet been the case.” One of the very first things authoritarians do when they seize control of a country — from Hitler in the 1930s to Putin in the early 2000s — is to seize control of the country’s legal system.
Typically they follow a twofold strategy of punishing independent judges and terrifying attorneys; Trump is doing both with a shocking level of speed and zeal. This is how democracy dies, not with a bang but with a pro bono agreement.
— The Empire shudders: how Trump’s trade tantrum could trigger America’s fall. China can destroy Trump (and America) if Mark Carney doesn’t do the job first: China produces 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals, which America needs to build chips, jet engines, advanced displays, missiles, avionics, and a whole spectrum of other applications, many specific to the military and advanced computer manufacturing. And on April 4th, in response to Trump’s first tariff tantrum, they put export controls on the seven (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium) most critical for US manufacturers and the US military. We have some reserves, but if this lasts for months it could seriously damage our military and advanced manufacturing capabilities.
Trump appears to believe that President Xi will come to him any day now to “kiss my a--” (as he bragged a few days ago about other governments’ leaders), but the Chinese dictator is showing no signs of bending or bowing, responding to Trump’s “stupid” 145% tariffs with a blanket 125% tariff of their own.
Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney — himself the former Chairman of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada (the equivalents of our Fed) — got together last week with leaders of Europe and Japan to plan their response to Trump. About $8.5 trillion of the US’ $36 trillion national debt is held by foreign governments (as Treasuries), including $350 billion by Canada, $1 trillion by Japan, and between $1.5 and $2 by the EU. If they were to coordinate the process of dumping their bonds, he reportedly suggested, it would flood the market with US bonds and make it harder for the the American Treasury Department to sell new debt issues, forcing us to increase the rate of interest we pay.
This would drive up US mortgages and other credit, make it harder for companies to finance expansion and new operations, and increase the cost to the US government to fund our own debt: the result, if sustained over a few months, could be devastating. And, sure enough, it appears that’s exactly what they did this past week when bond yields shot up, forcing Trump to put a 90-day pause on most of his tariffs.
This threatens America’s position as the holder of the world’s reserve currency, as well as possibly producing a liquidity crisis similar to what had Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen’s hands trembling when, in 2008, he announced that the nation’s banking system had “frozen up” and needed a multi-trillion-dollar bailout from Congress and our Fed (which Bush gave to the banks and their executives), and throw America into a severe recession or possibly even a second Republican Great Depression. Should Carney, et al, continue dumping US debt and China jump in by bailing on their $760 billion in treasuries, it could bring our financial system to its knees just as Republicans in Congress are trying to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion (which will have to be borrowed by selling that amount in treasuries) to fund their planned $4.5 trillion tax gift to America’s billionaires.
Highlighting the danger, the headline in yesterday’s Financial Times is, for finance experts, a virtual primal scream: Liquidity worsens in $29tn Treasury market as volatility soars. Hang onto your seats (and your assets): this could get insanely wild — and dangerous for all of us — before long. (And it’s amazing how the mainstream media is missing/ignoring these two stories.)
— Was there a “lack of urgency” in the Supreme Court deportation ruling about the Maryland father wrongly deported to El Salvador’s most notorious prison? You Betcha... Will the Republican justices keep sucking up to Trump? Is a frog’s a-- watertight? The Supreme Court issued one of the most mumbling, mealy-mouthed decisions in a century, giving Trump’s gestapo plenty of time to continue the torture of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the husband of a US citizen and father of three (including a nonverbal autistic child) along with over 200 others, over 70% of whom have no criminal record according to CBS. The Trump regime’s lawyers went to court yesterday and basically stalled, saying they didn’t know where Garcia is or what his status is, a clear and naked lie.
If nothing else, when El Salvador’s hard-right (arguably neo-Nazi) president Nayib Bukele visits the White House this coming Monday, he could simply bring Garcia and the others with him. But don’t hold your breath; he and Trump are both gleeful about their ability to incarcerate and torture a legal US resident without any legal due process in complete violation of the US Constitution and international law. The simple reality is that Trump is transforming America into a police state, step by step, and aligning himself with some of the planet’s worst autocrats while crapping on our closest allies…just like I’ll bet Putin taught him how to do.
— Seniors are first in the line of fire as Trump’s tariff bomb explodes. Top Senate Democrats just proposed an emergency Social Security payment boost: Senators Chuck Schumer, Ron Wyden, and Elizabeth Warren are putting forward legislation to increase the monthly Social Security payments of everybody in the country by $200 a month to compensate for the coming Trump tariff inflation. The Social Security Emergency Inflation Relief Act is a response to the early signs that inflation — and shortages — are about to explode as both major and minor retailers across the nation are cancelling orders for Chinese goods rather than pay a 145% import tax (tariff). These cancellations will produce shortages and drive up prices, hitting low income people the hardest (as Republican policies always do).
If nothing changes over the next week or two, expect major inflationary impact to sweep America starting in a big way next month. Meanwhile, Republicans promise to kill this Senate effort to give a raise to people on Social Security, because it may show down their plan to hand trillions to their billionaire benefactors. Finally, I’m already seeing signs that America has already slipped into a recession: Every time we’ve had a recession in the 22 years I’ve been doing my radio show, the early indicator is that advertisers begin to cut back on their ad budgets for radio. I heard from our ad agency this week that this has begun, so we’re looking at ways to tighten our belts, financially speaking. I predict, based on this “early warning system” that hasn’t failed me yet, that we’ll all see the impact of the Trump recession within a few weeks. We gave Trump a loaded gun and he pointed it straight at our feet and began blasting away. Will this break the spell this cult leader has on his followers? Stay tuned.
— Authoritarian Alert! There’s a new dress code in Trump’s Washington, and it’s straight out of a dictator’s playbook. Remember Mao Zedong and those little red pins with a gold image of his head on them? Stalin had them, too, as does Kim Jong Un; as Dean Blundell notes, if you fail to wear your Kim pin properly, you can get arrested in North Korea. Trump apparently loved the idea of having similar pins with his head on them, as do some of his cabinet members; FCC Chairman Brendan Carr was spotted wearing a Trump head pin in DC this week. Trump’s apparently selling pure gold versions, although you can get gold-like ones on amazon for as little as ten bucks. What’s next? A mandate that we all carry a little booklet of Trump’s most famous sayings? (“I moved on her like a b-----. I couldn't get there and she was married. … You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful... I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the p-----. You can do anything.”) G-d help us all…
— The SAVE Act: What could possibly go wrong with the House-passed bill requiring proof of citizenship to vote — Hillary sends out a warning about it — I've been warning about this for months! I’ve written several times about the GOP’s latest strategy to purge millions of American women from the nation’s voting rolls with their new SAVE Act, which passed the House this past week (with the votes of four democrats: Ed Case (HI), Henry Cuellar (TX), Jared Golden (ME), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA). They’re doing this because women are about 7% more likely to vote Democratic than men. As Hillary Clinton noted on Xitter yesterday: “The House just passed the Republican voter suppression measure that threatens voting access for millions of Americans, including 69 million women whose married names don’t match their birth certificates.”
Ever since 1980, when Heritage Foundation co-founder Paul Weyrich proclaimed the goal of the GOP should be to “reduce the voting population,” the party has sponsored thousands of pieces of legislation — hundreds of which have been made into law — to make it harder to register, harder to vote, and easier to get purged from voting rolls or have your vote thrown out. This bill, which will next be debated in the Senate (will Fetterman join Republicans and vote for it like these four turncoat Dems did in the House?), is the most serious assault on women’s right to vote since Republicans first opposed the 19th Amendment in 1920. Let your senators know you’re not happy and they should vote to filibuster and then defeat it.
— Crazy Alert! The next market crash or maybe even a war may be engineered by a robot — and nobody will be accountable. “Evil robots” could start a financial crisis or a world war in order to profit the corporations that own them, without those corporations even knowing about it? The Bank of England — not an organization prone to conspiracy thinking — issued a warning this week about what might happen when stock trading firms deploy AI robots to handle making money for them. The fear is that the robots will figure out what Naomi Klein wrote an entire book about: Disasters represent an opportunity to make big bucks. If an AI computer could infiltrate an air traffic control system and crash a plane, for example, right after betting big on airline stocks falling, it could make a fortune for its owners.
The Bank’s report noted, “Models might learn that stress events increase their opportunity to make profit and so take actions actively to increase the likelihood of such events.” They added: “AI could facilitate collusion or other forms of market manipulation” without the “human manager’s intention or awareness.” Yikes! Maybe it’s time for some legislation to get this genie under control?
NOW READ: Everything Trump is doing makes perfect sense if you understand one simple fact
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Trump is drinking his own Kool-Aid as evidence of his dementia grows
Trump didn’t just end his ill-conceived tariff drama, he only postponed it. Again. It’s not good news, it’s just delayed news.
Economists know that the best conduit to a healthy economy is stability. Yet the only reliable commodity from the Trump administration to date has been instability. In under three months of Trump’s second term, the chaos has been so relentless that even Fox News propagandists have, at times, fumbled their spin.
To effectively strategize for the kinds of volatility Trump will keep inflicting on the world—economic, climate, military, and everything in between— business experts should use the next ninety days to consider what’s really driving the mayhem: As many experts see it, Trump doesn’t have buyers’ remorse, he has dementia. Trying to reason with him is like trying to reason with a man who barks when it rains, and the sooner they know, the better.
World trade policy driven by unfounded paranoia
Trump argues that Europeans and other advanced economies "owe" the United States for past and current trade imbalances, because he does not understand the basics of global trade. If Americans buy more from another country than that country buys from us, Trump registers that as proof that we are being “ripped off.” It’s a paranoia-driven claim that borders on gibberish.
Countries do not buy and sell the same dollar amounts from one another in part because they are not the same size: a country that is 1/10th the size or population of the US cannot import the same amount we import, in part because what would they do with ten times more tires and machinery than their population needs? Trump also ignores that currency valuations vary widely, making dollar value comparisons idiotic. Last Econ 101 point, some countries export coffee and sugar while others export cellphones and robots, and the costs of each are simply not comparable. These are basic trade realities that eluded Trump’s simplistic, ChatGPT-generated “tariffs chart.”
In response to bond yields crashing over his tariff scheme, Trump came out with a plan this week to “negotiate” with more than 75 countries, but his aim remains nonsensical: he wants to flatten trade deficits with every country that imports lower amounts of American goods than they export. Trump’s failure to grasp that the numbers don’t match because they cannot match, due to size, populations, currencies and differing commodities, is driven by his paranoia.
Trump’s persistent belief that he is being taken advantage of doesn’t reflect strength, it reflects advancing dementia.
Trump is drinking his own Kool-Aid
Trump’s tariffs debacle also suggests he drinks his own kool-aid. Trump, with the help of his propaganda machine, convinced 49% of US voters that the Biden economy was a catastrophe. In fact-based reality (a phrase no longer redundant), based on all standard economic metrics including GDP, labor and wage growth, investment levels, and retreating inflation, Biden rebuilt an historically strong economy from the covid ashes Trump left behind.
Both the foundational belief- that the US economy is struggling and in need of Trump to “save it,”- and the belief that our allies are “ripping us off” reflects the same underlying pathology of delusion that drove Trump to insist that the 2020 election was “stolen” despite all evidence to the contrary.
I’m no psychiatrist, but you don’t need a medical degree to understand that barking ‘up is down’ with a megaphone is delusional.
The art of the squeal
Mental health professionals sounded the alarm over Trump’s dementia during his first term; their professional alarm continues to grow with mounting evidence in his second. But it shouldn’t take an expert. In both word and deed, Trump’s behavior is bizarre even to lay observers.
At the National Republican Congressional Committee meeting last week, Trump belittled every world leader whose economy he was intentionally harming, bragging, “These countries are calling us up. Kissing my ass… They are dying to make a deal. “Please, please, sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything. I’ll do anything, sir. And then I’ll see some rebel Republican, you know, some guy that wants to grandstand, saying: ‘I think that Congress should take over negotiations.’ Let me tell you: you don’t negotiate like I negotiate.”
Aside from the fact that he caved the next day, evidently kissing his own ass, only a mentally impaired man would belittle allies and political colleagues this way. Trump and his uneducated supporters may think his comments look strong, but to any honest observer, including those ‘grandstanding Republicans’ who want Congress to perform its constitutional duty,the comments look unhinged. They suggest Trump thinks trying to bully and degrade world leaders, with their own elections and political reputations to consider, is an effective way to manage relationships. As China’s vow to fight his trade war to the bitter end shows, his impaired judgment is a formula for disaster.
Evidence that Sir has dementia is everywhere; where is the 25th Amendment?
Trump’s disastrous commentary on world trade tracks with his other unhinged conduct, with evidence so compelling any lay person can interpret it for themselves:
·He insists he is not joking about serving a third term, despite the clarity of the 22nd Amendment which bars a president from seeking more than two terms;
·He deluded himself about the 2020 election; for every state Trump lost, he claimed he was “cheated,” demandingthat supporters “find” additional votes to cancel his loss;
·Just before the election he claimed on Fox News that the audience went “crazy” during his “crushing” debate performance against Kamala Harris. There was no audience during that debate, and by all national accounts, Harris trounced him.
·By the New York Time’s count, he made 64 outrageous, un-factual, and unmoored from reality claims one week before the election, in one speech alone.
·For his 79th birthday, he is now planning a massive military parade through the streets of Washington, DC, with an estimated cost of over $92 million, at a time when DOGE has gutted the federal government to “cut costs.”
These examples are just the tip of a fast-melting iceberg; he also bragged about spending “a great day in Louisiana” after he spent the day in Georgia; he often says North Korea is “trying to kill me,” (he means Iran); and as late as November, he was still talking about his race against Biden, despite Biden having left the race over a month earlier.
Experts have not been shy in their assessments either. More than 3000 credentialed psychiatrists, psychologists and mental health professionals have added their signatures to a petition circulating currently, stating that Trump has probable dementia. They also concluded that their duty to warn the nation outweighed their duty to refrain from diagnosing in absentia.
In my mind, the pertinent question looming now is, what other dangerously insane act will it take before Republicans locate their missing spines and join Democrats in invoking the 25th Amendment?
Sabrina Haake is a 25+ year federal trial attorney specializing in 1st and 14th A defense. Her columns are published in Alternet, Chicago Tribune, MSN, Out South Florida, Raw Story, Salon, Smart News and Windy City Times. Her Substack, The Haake Take, is free.
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Trump is about to target something far more terrifying than tariffs
When I was a teenager, my dad decided it was a good idea to keep as much cash as possible in the bedroom safe. I don’t remember exactly when this was, but it was probably around 1987. That’s when the stock market crashed so badly that people feared another Great Depression.
My dad didn’t trust banks, because his dad didn’t. Grandpa came of age during the Great Depression. He remembered and feared bank runs and bread lines and not being able to find things, forget about not being able to afford them. He grew up to be the kind of man you don’t see anymore. No one saves jars and scraps of tin foil. In his youth, those were hard to come by. We live in an age of abundance now.
At least I thought so. Since watching the Dow fall and fall and fall, before springing back up again, I’ve been thinking about my dad’s decision to pull cash out of the bank and keep it close – about his fundamental distrust of banking, finance and that class of men who manage to make money, not with labor, but other people’s money.
I’ve been thinking about how the fear of another Great Depression seemed to fade into the background as I grew up and entered college, to the point where having doubts about investing your life-savings in the stock market was quaint and old-fashioned. Even my dad seemed to accept this fashionable faith in the markets, however grudgingly.
By the middle of the 1990s, the world was roaring with globalization. The internet and the information economy had arrived. Company pensions were passé. The new trend was putting your nut in a bunch of letters and numbers: 401Ks, IRAs, 501c3s, etc. As long as we had “diversified portfolios,” we had little to fear, we were told. But if things went really wrong – like people-jumping-out-of-windows kind of wrong – we could still have faith. The government was behind us.
The Great Recession tested that trust. But however bad it was, and it was bad, I don’t think anyone felt like the government was going to stand by and watch the world burn, as it did in 1929. If anything, people expected the government to do too much, and it did. It bailed out Wall Street bankers to the tune of hundreds of billions, and not even once did it perp-walk any of those Brooks Brothers to jail.
This is a reflection. I’m no historian. But after watching the Dow fall this week and last, as a direct consequence of Trump’s import tax, things feel fundamentally different. In 2007-2008, the problem was the bankers. They were the bad guys. The government was the good guys. They were the firefighters who stopped the world from burning. The difference now is that the firefighters have become arsonists.
This feeling that something fundamental has changed deepened for me after seeing Edward Luce explain the impact of the Trump tariffs on normal people, which is to say, on you and me and everyone we know, who has become so trusting of the system we no longer think about it.
The Financial Times editor told CNN yesterday afternoon that “if you’re retiring in the next year or two, this is extremely bad news. If you're 45, then of course you can afford to wait, but a lot of it depends on is this a permanent shift to de-globalization, because if you're going to de-globalize, then everything becomes less efficient and prices go up structurally, and that means that the returns on equities, the stock market growth is reduced. So a lot depends on just how sustained this war of Trump against the whole world happens.”
Translation, as I’m hearing it: Do not allow yourself to believe that you’re going to be OK, even if you’re only 45 and retirement is far off. Time and patience used to be on your side, back in the day, but that was when America was the center of the globalized world. America is now de-centering itself under Donald Trump, and no one knows how far he’s willing to go. Investor confidence used to be based a stable, orderly government. The government is the source of chaos now.
Are you still willing to be confident?
If not, you’re in good company. MetLife released a report yesterday titled “Trade War Is Hell,” in which analysts pretty much said that no matter how far Trump goes, the damage has already been done.
“Sustained instability based on the whims of one person does not make for a good investment environment. When policy can immediately take the value of any instrument to zero, there is no incentive for business to invest. … With no clarity … and no rule book from which to operate, we continue to see investment slowing substantially. This will likely be paired with reduced hiring.”
They went on to say: “We expect to see customers save more after a flurry of pre-tariff implementation buying. Price increases are coming, equities are still lower, the dollar is still weaker and [bond] yields are still higher than before ‘Liberation Day.’ An element of trust has been lost and that will take time (and good policy decisions) to recover.”
Translation, as I’m hearing it: Trump will quickly make things worse. More than “an element of trust” is going to be lost. Most of it will be.
Again, this is a reflection. I’m no banker. But it seems to me that trust is the link between two big things. The more globalized America became, the more mainstream Wall Street became. The less globalized America becomes, the less mainstream Wall Street is going to be.
Most of the discussion about tariffs centers on the president, bankers, investors and other elites. The focus is on trade, trading partners and the international economy. All of it ignores normal people. Even the debate over alleged insider-trading by Trump and his goons does.
But normal people, which is to say, you and me and everyone we know, are at the heart of this unfolding story. It took six or seven decades, give or take, for public trust to recover from the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing decade-long Great Depression. And it recovered thanks to efforts made by the government to earn back that trust.
But the government is shredding it now, and I’m not just talking about tariffs. Bloomberg reported that Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency has arrived at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The FDIC is the reason why no one under 100 years of age has ever witnessed a bank run. It insures every account under $250,000. If your bank goes under, your money doesn’t go with it.
If DOGE does to the FDIC what it has done to other public agencies, the dreams of maga really will have become a reality. It will have turned the clock back to a time when the government was so feeble that by 1929, it could do little but stand by and watch the world burn.
I don’t remember what Dad did with that safe. He probably still has it. And knowing his inborn distrust of banks and that class of men who make money with other people’s money, it’s probably full of cash.
I never once in my adult life thought about following his example.
But lately, I have.
NOW READ: Is this the moment American democracy finally broke?
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Trump, dementia and the duty to warn
To ensure that the United States will always be led by a coherent, functioning President, the Twenty-Fifth Amendment provides for the prompt, orderly, and democratic transfer of executive power in the event the president is incapacitated, physically or mentally. Trump’s tariff debacle, where he thrust out his chest, flung economic incoherence at the world, then flip flopped only two days later, was the strongest evidence yet- in a roiling sea of evidence- that he is mentally incapacitated.
Despite inheriting the strongest post-covid economy in the world, Trump keeps insisting that the US economy is broken and in need of saving.He insists global trading partners who sell us more than they buy from us- even countries that are a fraction of our size- are “taking advantage.”
Trump’s tariff drama was so asinine, he’s either self-dealing or insane. Frankly, although they are not mutually exclusive, I’d prefer the former. I only wish that rumors swirling in the media today, suggesting Trump’s tariffs were a hustle, an insider scheme meant to enrich his backers, were true. Trump being a self-dealing crook poses less danger to the world than him making than no sense at all.
Dementia and the Duty to Warn
Leaders of the EU are too intelligent to sneer out loud at Trump’s flip flop on tariffs. Aware of his deranged lust for revenge, they are reluctant to utter the truth about his economic ignorance. But the world is aware, even if Americans aren’t, that our president is deranged.
Because Trump’s administration hasrefused to release his medical records, other mental health professionals have come forward with their own assessments. The emerging consensus is that Trump, showing cognitive decline, is presenting signs of advanced dementia.
Psychotherapist Dr. John Gartner, former Johns Hopkins University Medical School faculty, is so alarmed about Trump’s cognitive impairment that he circulated a petition addressing it among thousands of psychiatrists, psychologists and other credentialed mental health professionals. Gartner wrote last year that Trump shows "progressive deterioration in memory, thinking, ability to use language, behavior, and both gross and fine motor skills," adding that he felt an ethical “obligation to warn the public, and urge the media to cover this national emergency."
Trump struggles to “even finish a sentence,” Gartner explained in an interview with MindSite News, elaborating that, “When we’re diagnosing dementia, what we need to see is a deterioration of someone’s own baseline of functioning. What we see that a lot of people don’t appreciate is that when Donald Trump was younger in the 1980s, he was actually quite articulate. His thoughts were logical and related: now they’re tangential. He goes off on these ramblings where he is confabulating things – weird things in which he’ll talk about Venezuelans and mental hospitals, and then he’ll talk about sharks and batteries or the late, great Hannibal Lector and Silence of the Lambs.”
Dr. Gartner notes how Trump is “losing his capacity for coherent speech,” identifying “dozens and dozens of Trump’s phonemic paraphasias, in which you use sounds in place of an actual word (a hallmark of brain damage and dementia).” Trump will say something like ‘mishiz’ for missiles, or 'Chrishus' for Christmas, because he can’t complete the word. Then we see also a lot of semantic paraphasias, in which he uses a word incorrectly, as in 'the oranges of the situation' because it rhymes with 'the origins of the situation.'”
Mental health professionals, mainstream media, sound the alarm
Main stream media, including the New York Times, have also questioned Trump’s mental state. In October 2024, the NYT reported that Trump now uses more “negative words than positive words compared with 2016, which can be another indicator of cognitive change.” And he curses far more often than he did when he first ran, “a trend that could reflect what experts call disinhibition,” another sign of dementia. They cited a study by health care news outlet, Stat, that reports similar findings.
Newsweek’s article, “Donald Trump Dementia Evidence 'Overwhelming,” cites New York psychologist Suzanne Lachmann. Lackmann describes how Trump "seemingly forgets how sentence began and invents something in the middle" resulting in "an incomprehensible word salad"—a behavior she argues is observed "frequently in patients who have dementia."
The Dementia Society notes that “forgetting names and dates is normal for people who are aging. But "confusing people and generations" is a sign of advanced dementia. During the campaign, Trump confused Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi on eight separate occasions, and said he was running against Obama. He said his father was born in Germany, when it was his grandfather who was born in Germany.
The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump
With the assistance of other psychiatrists and credentialled mental health professionals, Dr. Bandy Lee wrote, The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 37 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President near the conclusion of Trump’s first presidency. In the book, psychiatric experts came forward due to what they saw as their professional moral and civic “duty to warn” America about Trump’s dementia.This duty, they argued, supersedes their competing professional duty of neutrality.
Since then, more than 3000 credentialed mental health professionals have added their signatures to a petition concluding that the president has probable dementia.
They write, “Donald Trump is showing unmistakable signs strongly suggesting dementia, based on his public behavior and informant reports that show progressive deterioration in memory, thinking, ability to use language, behavior, and both gross and fine motor skills…. his vocabulary is impoverished, he often has difficulty finishing a thought, sentence or even a word. Typical of dementia patients he perseverates and overuses superlatives and filler words…”
Congress needs to act before Trump gets red-button happy
Trump, who caused global destruction with his mindless tariff wars, now has the sole authority to launch nuclear weapons as the Commander in Chief.
Evidence of his cognitive decline is everywhere. Mental health professionals have sounded the alarm, and met their professional duty to warn the world about Trump’s dementia.
Congress now has a duty to listen to the professionals. Republicans, on the whole, have a duty to act.
Section 4 of the 25th Amendment allows the Vice President and either the Cabinet, or a body approved “by law” formed by Congress, to jointly agree that “the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” Democrats need to proceed under this clause, and frightened republicans need to join in before Trump commits another, potentially world annihilating, blunder.
Sabrina Haake is a 25+ year federal trial attorney specializing in 1st and 14th A defense.Her columns are published in Alternet, Chicago Tribune, MSN, Out South Florida, Raw Story, Salon, Smart News and Windy City Times. Her Substack, The Haake Take, is free.
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The sickening secret sauce to Trump's political success
THE ANSWER: Racism.
THE QUESTION: How in the hell did we get here?
There is no other way to explain the American-attacking Trump’s rise to power, and most important, his ability to hold onto it despite being easily the stupidest, most dishonest, and openly bigoted man to ever step foot in our White House.
Just four years after trying to take a blowtorch to our votes, he is busy incinerating our life’s savings, and making measles great again, yet tens of millions of Americans are still stubbornly standing in his corner no matter what.
And I am not talking about the millionaires and billionaires who have gobs of money to gain while these markets are intentionally shorted, either. I am talking about Joe and Jane America, who are watching their retirement savings go up in smoke. I am talking about farmer Fred, whose Trump sign that he has defiantly planted in his field is now worth more than the crops he is growing at a loss.
I am talking about people who you know, and maybe even live with.
Go ahead and say what you want about this wretched, burnt-orange monster (please), but it's your friends and family who still support him who are to blame for this terrible, terrible mess we are in right now.
Without them, there is no him.
You can pretend this isn’t true if it somehow makes you feel better. You can invent high-minded reasons for them to go so low with their vote. You can make pathetic excuses for their absurd recklessness, but when you do that, you are helping to spread the seeds of hate.
You simply do not get to support a racist without being one yourself, and Trump is the most notorious bigot of our times. It is the sickening secret sauce to his political success, and a decade after he burst onto scene with all the grace of s--- to a shingle, we have completely normalized it.
Like his endless lying, it’s a given.
You seldom see either of these things mentioned in our press anymore.
He has eliminating swaths of important Black history from our government records, and it is being met with a shrug. He is doing away with decades of work aimed at giving EVERYBODY a chance at the American dream and it is being met with surrender.
There is absolutely no need to do any of this, but it is nonetheless happening at a furious rate.
Why?
The truth is, Trump has an endless capacity and craving to hate. His insatiable appetite to stoke racial unrest seems to come from a place deep inside him where the lights went out, presumably after his racist parents made it clear even they couldn’t stand to have him around the house anymore.
His big sister, Maryanne, called him, “a brat,” who has “no principles. A man who is “cruel and can’t be trusted.” A “phony.”
Because nobody knows you better than your big sister ...
The very minute this loudmouth used the shaky platform built for him from his ridiculous reality TV show to attack Barack Obama’s citizenship it should have disqualified him from getting within 500 miles of a pigsty, much less the White House.
Instead, it was his opening, the thing that separated him, and the foundation for every terrible thing that has followed the past decade or so. We are in danger of losing our democracy after 250 years, because Donald Trump is a racist, not in spite of it.
It is the only reason he was able reclaim an office he has completely disgraced, and why I have decided to circle back and underline this sore subject today, as our country descends into the sewer while dragging as many countries as possible down with us.
It is why the very first thing he did upon harrumphing back into the White House for a second term was take a sledgehammer to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) efforts across the United States.
Trump knew that was far more important to his supporters than all this relentless bull---- we were hearing about their phony concerns over the price of gas and eggs. You don’t drag a rebel flag to a rally because you need a job …
Viciously attacking DEI and people of color with alacrity was the art of the deal that put him back in a job he is completely unqualified for. It gave him the capital among his supporters to exact his heinous revenge on the courts and the people, who had the gall to try to hold him to account for assaulting women and our country.
He lied to them that everything would be better on Day 1. They didn't believe that, because what was really important was putting those uppity people of color in this country back in their place.
Sure the 401k they have sweated their lifetime to build is taking a terrible beating right now, but at least they don’t have to hear about those damn Tuskegee Airmen anymore ...
Shortly after President Lyndon Johnson signed the landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964, he told the venerable journalist Bill Moyers, who was a staffer at the time:
“Well, I think we may have lost the south for your lifetime – and mine.”
He undershot that prediction a bit, but it’s the Johnson comment to Moyers which preceded that one a year or so earlier that hasn’t stopped ringing in my ears ever since Trump was improbably elected the first time in 2016:
"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
Everything starts with Trump’s unrivaled, and professional bigotry.
He, and his revolting party, are so good at it, that lately I am watching Democrats fall all over themselves warning of the use of “identity politics” in their messaging. People are turned off by that, we have been told.
Really now … because “identity politics” are the only thing that have been turning the Republican Party and their supporters on for decades …
D. Earl Stephens is the author of “Toxic Tales: A Caustic Collection of Donald J. Trump’s Very Important Letters” and finished up a 30-year career in journalism as the Managing Editor of Stars and Stripes. You can find all his work here, and follow him on Bluesky here.
NOW READ: The suffering of white Trump voters isn't going to change a thing
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The suffering of white Trump voters isn't going to change a thing
Now that trillions of dollars have vanished as a consequence of the Trump tariffs, I see that some liberals who are sitting on high perches are talking about how the tide is turning against the president. They tell us that even Donald Trump’s voters are changing their minds.
It’s things like this that worry me. It tells me that liberals still operate according to certain articles of faith that are well beyond their expiration dates. It tells me that liberals grossly underestimate the power of corruption, greed, arrogance and stupidity, and grossly overestimate the inherent goodness of the American people.
For the last 25 years or so, liberals have complained about the fact that people who vote for Republicans always vote against their own economic self-interest. Yet at the same time, liberals believe deep in their bones that once they experience economic hardship, as a consequence of their vote, these same voters will change their minds.
Why would they do that? If they truly understood their own economic self-interest, they wouldn’t have voted against it in the first place. They don’t. Their vote is proof. So the question is: Why should we expect people who don’t understand what’s good for them to change their minds? Why should we expect people who don’t understand what’s good for them to see the value of the Democrats’ economic policies?
The common response is that their suffering will force them. Suffering, however, isn’t the same thing as changing your mind. It isn’t the same thing as accepting responsibility for choices made. It certainly is not the same thing as saying you should have voted for the Democrat.
Yes, they will complain. They will cry! But that’s not turning on Donald Trump. That’s being in the habit of being the center of attention safe in the belief that your suffering is the only suffering that really counts.
Why are they in that habit? That’s easy. It’s because they’re white. No other class of people can reasonably expect such deference. Anyone else is grandstanding or trying to get something they don’t deserve.
It’s cultural assumptions like this that have motivated a majority of white Americans to vote Republican since the late 1970s, even though GOP policies immiserate them. It’s cultural assumptions like this that are a stand-in for a social order in which white interests are the only legitimate interests. Liberals say such voters do not vote in their own interest, but they do. Those interests are just not especially economic.
It should come as no surprise that the liberals I’m talking about are not Black. White liberals are regularly shocked to see Trump voters killing themselves, sometimes literally, in the service of white power. This is so shocking as to be unbelievable, which is probably why so many don’t believe it. Instead, they go off in search of some other explanation for their behavior and, typically, what they conclude is they were duped.
Over the weekend, a highly placed pundit was stunned to see Trump “monetize the presidency” after markets crashed. “How dumb do you have to be to accept this?” he said. “Please don't come at me with talk of economic or cultural grievances. He's playing millions for fools.”
How dumb do you have to be? In that question is a degree of disbelief, as if no one can possibly be so dumb as to accept Trump “monetizing the presidency” while making life materially harder for everyone in America. The question I have is this: why is that so hard to believe?
Is it really so much easier to believe that Trump duped these people than it is to say that they wanted to be duped? We can spend all our time talking about “economic and cultural grievances” or we can save time by coming to a moral conclusion: You can’t cheat honest people but given that Trump is president, honest people are in short supply.
White liberals cling to their faith in the American people, because they believe that individuals facing economic hardship will understand their own experience on their own terms. In fact, most people do not do that. They see their experience through the lens of group identity, and if their group tells them they are not experiencing what they are in fact experiencing, individuals in that group probably won’t see it.
This is why white liberals who say things like “Trump can’t spin the economy” worry me so much. They suggest with those words that the work that needs to be done doesn’t really need to be done, because individuals can be trusted to figure out on their own that Trump is to blame for their suffering. If nothing else, the last election should have proven that the opposite is true. He can spin the economy now, just as he spun the economy then, and most of his voters will believe him.
White liberals seem naive about the current character of the American people, because most are living in the past. In the postwar era, there was a consensus about the government, that it should serve everyone, and from that arose all the rights movements. After four decades of rightwing propaganda, that consensus is gone. Yet white liberals still cling to a belief in the inherent goodness of the American people.
European liberals of the early 19th century had grave doubts about democracy. They thought it could turn any vice into a virtue by making it popular enough, and they were right about that. They did not believe individuals would willingly embrace liberal principles like free speech, religious freedom, habeas corpus and so on – individuals had to propagandized and won over – because they, like Black liberals today, had no illusions about corruption, greed, arrogance and stupidity.
I get why white liberals are so focused on the suffering of Trump voters. If they change their minds, there’s hope for the future. But there’s hope even if they don’t (and they won’t), because hope never came from people who succumbed to evil. It comes from people who can face evil squarely in the face and then make choices accordingly.
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'Will not erase us': Trump’s fascism is being met with massive public pushback
If there’s a through line to the first months of Trump 2.0 it’s the president’s penchant for trying to disappear his critics, enemies and the fast-multiplying targets of his disdain.
It’s classic authoritarian behavior.
Donald Trump is a dictator at heart, and like all “good” dictators, he relishes the idea that he can banish anyone he thinks could get in his way.
Don’t like brown immigrants? Snatch them off the streets, deport them and do all you can to keep them from coming here in the first place.
Don’t like a free press? Claim, without evidence, that it’s fake, do all you can to muzzle it, and prop up pliant members of the news media — like Fox, Newsmax and One America.
Don’t like the fact that women and minorities have had greater access to job opportunities in recent decades? Attack labor and civil rights laws under the guise that you’re dismantling DEI programs.
Don’t like that historically disenfranchised communities are allowed to vote? Suppress, or block outright, their access to the polls — and if they win elections anyway, falsely claim they cheated and the system can’t be trusted.
Don’t like people with disabilities, Muslims, veterans, the poor, environmentalists, public schools and universities, foreign aid, people of color, park rangers, student loans, scientists, academics, asylum seekers, Social Security and Medicaid, unions, the LGBTQ+ community ( especially trans people), public broadcasting, artists, people with AIDS, people with COVID, fluoride, accurate historical accounts, kids who get the measles, or the president and people of Ukraine? (And, no, this is not an exhaustive list.) Do all you can to cripple or shut down federal agencies and illegally slash congressionally mandated funding that supports these groups and programs.
Why? Because that’s what dictators do. That’s what oligarchs do. That’s what fascists do.
It is not what presidents of the United States of America have normally done.
It’s one thing to be the most powerful man on earth, but quite another to expect that a critical mass of this country’s 330 million citizens are willing to abet their own demise.
When the most powerful man in the world openly dismisses the principles that undergird the rule of law, including the core precepts of our Constitution and our courts, we are not living in normal times.
Trump’s goal is as simple as it is dangerous: to erase anyone and anything he considers a threat to his quickly expanding stranglehold on power.
But if the reaction to his agenda by a growing and diverse contingent of Americans in the past few weeks is any indication, including by people who voted for him in November, Trump will not erase us.
Last week, millions of people across 50 states and around the world took to the streets to roundly and courageously condemn the chaos, cruelty and corruption of Trumpism in action.
As the Arizona Mirror reported, it was all part of “a national day of protest” called Hands Off “that saw more than 1,300 events across the country — many in heavily GOP areas that backed Trump by a large margin in the last election.”
“In many locations,” reporter Jerod MacDonald-Evoy wrote, “crowds dwarfed expectations: A march in Washington, D.C., saw five times more than the 10,000 that were anticipated, while the New York City protest stretched for nearly 20 blocks and overwhelmed city streets.”
At the protest in Sedona, one of roughly 30 in the Grand Canyon State, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes told a crowd of nearly 1,000: “We are fighting back with what I call the three Cs: courage, crowds, and the courts.”
Mayes has been partnering with other Democratic attorneys general across the country to file a slew of lawsuits challenging Trump’s most egregious executive measures.
Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told the more than 2,000 people gathered at the Capitol in Phoenix that they embodied the true meaning of the First Amendment: the right to petition the government for a redress of grievances. “Those grievances are growing larger and larger,” Fontes declared.
Alicia Van Driel, part of a “Hands Off” march in Salem, Oregon, said, “I knew Trump was dishonest before he got voted in. I didn’t vote for him, and everybody that has voted for him needs to take a look at what’s really going on.”
Demonstrators in Connecticut, like Jim Chapdelaine, a volunteer with the grassroots group Indivisible, gathered in a cold rain outside the Capitol building in Hartford.
“A little rain is not going to stop us from saving democracy,” Chapdelaine told the crowd of between 2,500 and 3,000.
Facing a flood of what judges and legal scholars have labeled as unconstitutional executive orders issued by the president since taking office, millions of us are rising up to defy his naked power grab.
The president, meanwhile, has met loss after loss in the courts over his initiatives.
Oblivious to the depth and breadth of the growing resistance movement, Trump is still expecting us all to cower at his feet, fearful that the thugs he’s been ordering to disappear his critics in the immigrant community will come for us next.
Or worse, that he’ll call out the troops to silence dissent.
The trouble with dictators, however, is that they always overreach.
Hitler was doomed once he decided to wage war on the Allied powers; Iraq’s Saddam Hussein should have thought twice about invading Kuwait, given the U.S. addiction to low gas prices; and Vladimir Putin will rue the day he convinced himself that Russia could conquer Ukraine with little or no resistance.
Blinded by narcissism and enabled by spineless sycophants, autocrats eventually start to believe the self-fabricated myth of their own omnipotence.
In Trump’s case, it’s one thing to be the most powerful man on earth, but quite another to expect that a critical mass of this country’s 330 million citizens are willing to abet their own demise.
No, Donald, you will not erase us.
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