The real 'Biden conundrum' is about timing
New polling by CNN and The Wall Street Journal show the president in a deadheat with the criminal former president, and this has inspired another tiresome round of concern-trolling among people who know better but who also canât be trusted to behave accordingly because they are professionally and politically incentivized to pretend that they donât know any better.
But instead of talking yet again about the failings of the Washington press corps, I want to talk about a factual aspect of this makebelieve, which is that normal Democratic voters appear to be truly uncomfortable with Joe Bidenâs advanced age while at the same time knowing the incumbent is the best choice against the most likely Republican nominee, Donald Trump.
Itâs being called the Biden conundrum.
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To the extent that this is a conundrum, itâs not much of one. Why? If Democratic normies were as anxious about the presidentâs advanced age as weâre being told they are, the same polling would indicate some desire for an alternative to him. After all, an alternative would relieve that anxiety!
But polling so far contains no such data. These same Democratic normies, who are feeling understandable levels of anxiety about the unknowable future of democracy, already know that an incumbent Democrat is the best chance they have of winning the election and pushing back against the tide of authoritarianism. They already know that Biden is the right choice.
If Democratic normies already know that Biden is the right choice, and I believe that they do, the âBiden conundrumâ isnât much of a conundrum. Itâs probably more an expression of the stress thatâs experienced in the face of uncertainty. Since no one knows the future, so thereâs always going to be stress about it thatâs often free-floating with no identifiable source. Weâre talking about Bidenâs age, but we could be talking about something else.
The anxiety of Democratic normies is also a consequence of them being normal people. They donât pay attention to politics the way the press corps does, because they have better things to do than spend all their time thinking, talking and writing about politics. As a result, they tend to reflect the concerns of the state quo, which is articulated on a daily basis by a press corps that has nothing better to do than pay attention to politics. So if the press corps exhibits a generalized concern about the presidentâs advanced age, it stands to reason that Democratic normies â and normal people of all walks of life â are going to reflect that generalized concern.
But Democratic normies know something that the press corps does not â that the president is not a normal person. Normal people, if they are lucky enough to reach the age of 80, are not expected to work till they die. Presidents, however, are not normal people. Itâs OK if they die in harness.
So the real condundrum among Democratic normies, for which there is no polling, as far as I know, is not about Bidenâs age. Itâs about timing. Itâs about whether an octogenarian can go the distance. If the president dies before winning (and being sworn in for a second time), that would be disastrous. But if he dies afterward, well, such cases are what vice presidents are for.
The real conundrum isnât what weâre talking about. Weâre talking about a kinda sorta perhaps maybe conundrum based on polling conducted in late summer, a time when normal people, who already have better things to do than pay attention to politics, have even more better things to do. The CNN poll thatâs being used as the basis for the âBiden conundrumâ argument has totally ridiculous results, like US Senator Tim Scott, of South Carolina, beating the incumbent by two points while Trump beats him by just one.
Worse is the pretended sophistication of those who are paid to make nonsense polling make sense to normal people. Pollster Nate Silver said that âthe obvious alternative to an 80-year-old running for a second term would be his vice president running instead. It's been striking how little enthusiasm there was for a Kamala Harris candidacy, however.â Sheâd lose to Trump, he suggested. But thatâs not why thereâs âlittle enthusiasmâ for her. Thereâs little enthusiasm, because sheâs not the president. Joe Biden is. Vice presidents have one job only â to take over when the president dies.
Hereâs what I think Democratic normies need to hear: Itâs morally OK to believe that Biden is the right choice as the Democratic Partyâs nominee, despite all this polling and all these âsophisticatedâ people giving you all these reasons to doubt whether youâre right. They donât know anymore than you do on account of the election being a year from now. People say all kinds of things when nothingâs at stake. That changes when everything is.
There is, furthermore, no shame in hoping that an 80-year-old president can go the distance â and that he doesnât die before being sworn in again. Biden stopped being a normal person long ago. You donât have to treat him as one. Indeed, he isnât asking you to. All heâs asking of you is your vote. If he dies after being sworn in, Harris will take over. By that time, Trump will no longer be a threat. (Heâs an old man, too.) Sure, someone else will take his place, but thatâs future set of political problems best left to a future time.
Finally, there is no shame in there being a rematch, in 2024, of the 2020 presidential election. Itâs the opposite of a curse. First, because Biden will busy himself with litigating the future while Trump will busy himself with relitigating the past. Second, related to the first, because a rematch would offer clarity of a kind that Americans have not seen in 30 years. No one knows what the future holds, but a choice like that would be a blessing.
READ MORE: No labels, no fables: All Americans who believe in democracy must unite behind Joe Biden